Andrew Scobell

This study analyzes what is driving China s Central Asia and Afghanistan-Pakistan policies, identifies China s overarching strategy, examines the extent of Chinese activities in the region, and assesses their implications for the United States. The authors contend that China projects an image of considerable strength in Central and South Asia to mask serious frailty."

There is a need for the United States to move the debate over the challenge China presents us beyond the dispositions of the attention grabbing advocates: the rationalizers who explain Chinese actions in benign terms with their own political or academic motives, or the denigrators, who are "The Chinese Are Coming" school-to wit: China is belligerent, a threat, in short, a monster. It is increasingly important for Americans to think carefully about the vast complexities of the U. S.-China relationship, and the calculations that go into forming courses of action. The Chinese have to consider some of the same realities we do when planning military actions and strategy. The key question is: will China's so-called first priority of economic development and its resulting influence on domestic social stability curtail China's continuing reliance on military force as a means of exerting its influence?

The tenor of U. S.-China relations for much of the first year of the administration of President George W. Bush was set by a crisis that need not have occurred. How the situation was handled and eventually resolved is instructive. It tells us about a beleaguered communist leadership in the buildup to major generational transition (scheduled for late 2002 and early 2003) and the mettle of a democratically elected U. S. government tested early in its tenure by a series of foreign policy crises and a carefully coordinated set of devastating terrorist strikes against the continental United States. The way the April 2001 crisis on Hainan Island was resolved must be chalked up as a success for the United States. the key was Washington's ability to convince Beijing that holding the air crew was hurting, and not advancing, Chinese interests.

Culture influences the way strategists in a particular country think about matters of war and peace. Culture is especially influential in a country like China, with an ancient civilization and strategic tradition dating back thousands of years. The author of this monograph, Dr. Andrew Scobell, examines the impact of strategic culture on 21st century China. He contends that the People's Republic of China's security policies and its tendency to use military force are influenced not only by elite understandings of China's own strategic tradition, but also by their understandings of the strategic cultures of other states. Gaining a fuller appreciation for how Chinese strategists view the United States and Japan, our key ally in the Asia-Pacific, will better enable us to assess regional and global security issues. The Strategic Studies Institute is pleased to publish this monograph as a contribution to the public debate on China's strategic disposition.

With the armed forces of the People's Republic of China celebrating their 75th anniversary on August 1, 2002, it only seemed appropriate and timely to take stock of the world's largest military. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) has officially been in existence for three-quarters of a century, and its history is one filled with turmoil and warfare. One weekend in September 2002, a group of PLA specialists gathered at Carlisle Barracks, the home of the U. S. Army War College, to assess what lessons China's soldiers had drawn from the history of their own armed forces. This volume constitutes the final product of months of extensive research by the individual authors and hours of intense discussion at the 3-day conference by approximately 50 participants. The conference was sponsored jointly by the American Enterprise Institute, the Heritage Foundation, and the U. S. Army War College. It is with great pleasure that I commend this book to anyone with a serious interest in the Chinese military.

On October 18-20, 2001, the 16th Annual Conference of the Council on U. S.-Korean Security Studies was held in Washington, DC. Created in 1985 by retired generals Richard Stilwell of the United States and Sun Yup Paik of the Republic of Korea, the Council's aim was to initiate a conference that would bring together top scholars and practitioners on the most important issues facing the two countries and their important bilateral alliance. Since then, the Council has successfully hosted an annual conference, alternating every other year between meetings in Seoul and Washington. Although begun as an idea with a relatively small scale, in 2001 the Council hosted one of the largest meetings ever, bringing together over 50 presenters and discussants and several hundred participants.

The relationship between China and North Korea surely ranks as one of world's strangest. While on the surface, it might not seem surprising to have a formal military alliance between two communist neighbors that has endured more than 4 decades. After all, their armed forces fought shoulder-to-shoulder in the Korean War 50 years ago. However, Beijing's ties to Pyongyang have weakened considerably over time, and China now has much better and stronger relations with the free market democracy of South Korea than it does with the totalitarian, centrally planned economy of North Korea. In many ways Pyongyang has become a Cold War relic, strategic liability, and monumental headache for Beijing. Nevertheless, the China-North Korea alliance remains formally in effect, and Beijing continues to provide vital supplies of food and fuel to the brutal and repressive Pyongyang regime.

In November 2002, the Chinese Communist Party held its 16th Congress and formally initiated a sweeping turnover of senior leaders in both the Party and the People's Liberation Army (PLA). The meeting heralded not merely a new set of personalities in positions of political and military power, but also the emergence of a new generation of leaders. Who are these individuals, and what does their rise mean for the future of China and its military? The group of China specialists who have written this book have applied their research talents, intelligence, and hands-on experience to clarify and explain the most important issues of the day in China. China obviously matters to the United States because of its size, its spectacular patterns of growth, its profound problems linked to rapid growth, and its military intentions.

North Korea poses a key challenge to the global community of states. Sometimes viewed as primarily a nuclear or proliferation challenge, Pyongyang actually presents the United States and other countries with multiple problems. As the 2005 National Defense Strategy of the United States notes, these challenges include "traditional, irregular, and catastrophic." While each dimension of these threat capabilities are fairly clear and, with the exception of the third, readily documented, North Korea's intentions are a much more controversial subject upon which specialists reach widely disparate conclusions. In this monograph, Dr. Andrew Scobell examines the topic of Pyongyang's strategic intentions. He first identifies a broad spectrum of expert views and distills this wisdom into three "packages" of possible strategic intentions. He then sets out to test which package appears to reflect actual North Korean policy.

National security decisionmaking under stress or crisis management is something with which I have had some firsthand experience over the course of my career in government service. Most relevant to the topic of this edited volume is my tour of duty as U. S. Ambassador in Beijing which began in May 1989-a month before Tiananmen of June 3 and 4. In my position as chief U. S. diplomat in China, I was an actor and an observer-along with many dedicated and resourceful U. S. Embassy personnel-to the events that constituted a case study of Chinese communist crisis management. My colleagues and I were witnesses to what, in my judgment, constituted one of the gravest crises to the communists' control of China since 1949. We engaged the Chinese leadership during this time of tension and precipitous action.

This is the eighth volume on the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to be published by the Strategic Studies Institute. It is the product of a conference held at Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania, from September 23-25, 2005, to examine the PLA and the global security environment in which it operates. This gathering was the 18th in a series of annual conferences on China's PLA. I have been privileged to be involved with and/or attend most of these gatherings over the years. At the 2005 conference, I was honored to deliver the keynote address in which I offered some of my insights and observations about China derived from a lifetime of living in or working on the Middle Kingdom. More than 50 experts on China participating in this conference provided critical comments and guidance on the initial drafts of the chapters included in this volume.

In the first decade of the 21st century, few national security challenges facing the United States are as vexing as that posed by North Korea. North Korea is both a paradox and an enigma. It is a paradox because on the one hand, by some measures it appears to be a very powerful state-possessing the world's fourth largest armed forces, a sizeable arsenal of ballistic missiles, and a worrying nuclear program-but on the other hand, it is an economic basket case in terms of agricultural output, industrial production, and foreign trade exports. North Korea is also an enigma because virtually every aspect of the Pyongyang regime is mysterious and puzzling. In short, North Korea is difficult for Americans to understand and analyze. This difficulty begins with confusion about what kind of political system North Korea has and what kind of man leads it. In this monograph, Andrew Scobell explores Pyongyang's political dynamics and seeks to shed light on the political system of North Korea and its leader.

The U. S. Army War College and the National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR) are two organizations with which I have a strong connection. I was in the class of 1976 at Carlisle and I currently serve on the Board of NBR where I am closely aligned with the Strategic Asia Program. As such, I was quite pleased when the NBR joined the continuing efforts of the U. S. Army War College's Strategic Studies Institute to study developments in China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) as cosponsors of the 19th PLA Carlisle Conference from October 6-8, 2006. Right-Sizing the People's Liberation Army: Exploring the Contours of China's Military is the ninth volume in this series published by the Strategic Studies Institute and represents the collective scholarly efforts of those who contributed to the 2006 conference. The book addresses how the leadership of China and the PLA view what size of PLA best meets China's requirements.

North Korea is a country of paradoxes and contradictions. Although it remains an economic basket case that cannot feed and clothe its own people, it nevertheless possesses one of the world's largest armed forces. Whether measured in terms of the total number of personnel in uniform, numbers of special operations soldiers, the size of its submarine fleet, quantity of ballistic missiles in its arsenal, or its substantial weapons of mass destruction programs, Pyongyang is a major military power. North Korea's latest act to demonstrate its might was the seismic event on October 9, 2006. The authors of this monograph set out to assess the capabilities and discern the intentions of North Korea's People's Army.

Forecasting is a challenging business, and this is especially true when North Korea is the subject. A little more than a decade ago, the conventional wisdom was that the end of North Korea was imminent. The country was beset by a severe famine, its economy appeared to have collapsed, and the collapse of the regime seemed destined to follow. In 2008, the conventional wisdom views North Korea as rebounding from the crisis of the last decade and the regime as being on a firm footing. Many experts now scoff at the possibility of the demise of the Kim regime. Dr. Andrew Scobell's research cautions against wholeheartedly embracing conventional wisdom where North Korea is concerned. This monograph addresses the question of Pyongyang's future. Specifically, it explores the future of the regime of Kim Jong Il, constructs a number of scenarios, and then identifies the most plausible one.

I am pleased that, for the second year in a row, the U. S. Army War College and The National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR) teamed up to convene the annual PLA colloquium. Over the years, this event has successfully increased understanding of China's military and the multiple aspects of its ongoing modernization effort. Last year was no exception. On September 28, 2007, under the joint leadership of the U. S. Army War College's Strategic Studies Institute and NBR's Pyle Center for Northeast Asian Studies, approximately 70 leading experts on the People's Liberation Army (PLA) convened at Carlisle Barracks, PA, for a 2-day discussion on the Chinese military's human infrastructure. Presentations and discussions at the conference focused on identifying trends in recruitment, education, training, personnel management, and demographics within the PLA.

While preventing independence likely remains the central aim of the PLA vis-a-vis Taiwan, Chinese foreign policy objectives worldwide are rapidly growing and diversifying. This volume analyzes the PLA's involvement in disaster and humanitarian relief, United Nations peacekeeping operations (UNPKO), counterterrorism and border defense, security in outer space and cyberspace, and the level of activity in regional "joint" operational contingencies. On the whole, the volume provides a discerning analysis of these varied PLA developments and how they affect policy towards both Taiwan and the entire Asia-Pacific region. While the significance of China has long been understood, the nation's rise to prominence on the world scene is becoming more acutely felt. An understanding of the PLA's growing roles both within China and internationally is of critical importance to the United States.

Despite its impressive size and population, economic vitality, and drive to upgrade its military, China remains a vulnerable nation surrounded by powerful rivals and potential foes. Understanding China's foreign policy means fully appreciating these geostrategic challenges, which persist even as the country gains increasing influence over its neighbors. Andrew J. Nathan and Andrew Scobell analyze China's security concerns on four fronts: at home, with its immediate neighbors, in surrounding regional systems, and in the world beyond Asia. By illuminating the issues driving Chinese policy, they offer a new perspective on the country's rise and a strategy for balancing Chinese and American interests in Asia. Though rooted in the present, Nathan and Scobell's study makes ample use of the past, reaching back into history to illuminate the people and institutions shaping Chinese strategy today. They also examine Chinese views of the United States; explain why China is so concerned about Japan; and uncover China's interests in such problematic countries as North Korea, Iran, and the Sudan. The authors probe recent troubles in Tibet and Xinjiang and explore their links to forces beyond China's borders. They consider the tactics deployed by mainland China and Taiwan, as Taiwan seeks to maintain autonomy in the face of Chinese advances toward unification. They evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of China's three main power resources-economic power, military power, and soft power. The authors conclude with recommendations for the United States as it seeks to manage China's rise. Chinese policymakers understand that their nation's prosperity, stability, and security depend on cooperation with the United States. If handled wisely, the authors believe, relations between the two countries can produce mutually beneficial outcomes for both Asia and the world.