Brian Nichiporuk

This report assesses the requirements of a deterrence strategy for application to potential regional adversaries. The authors argue that states content with their status quo should be easy to deter, especially from seeking gain, because they are likely to be risk-averse decisionmakers.

The authors assess how Russian military forces are postured and resourced and how they are likely to operate. They also discuss the goals and effects of Russian military reform efforts, including initiatives that span all of the Russian armed forces' services and independent branches. Touching on most of Russia's armed forces' major capabilities, the authors conclude with a look at how those capabilities are being integrated in practice.

This report assesses the annexation of Crimea by Russia (February-March 2014) and the early phases of political mobilization and combat operations in Eastern Ukraine (late February-late May 2014). It examines Russia's approach, draws inferences from Moscow's intentions, and evaluates the likelihood of such methods being used again elsewhere.

Pakistan is already one of the most urbanized nations in South Asia, and a majority of its population is projected to be living in cities within three decades. This demographic shift is likely to have a significant impact on Pakistan s politics and stability. This report briefly examines urbanization as a potential driver of long-term insecurity and instability, with particular attention to the cities of Karachi, Lahore, and Quetta."

Although irregular warfare includes a range of activities in which naval forces have played an integral role, there has been little examination of the characteristics or potential of such operations in maritime environments. An assessment of the maritime component of a series of historical and ongoing operations reveals that current notions of irregular warfare would benefit from increased recognition of potential maritime contributions.

The United States is currently engaged in a military effort that has been characterized as the "long war." This study explores the concept of long war and identifies ways in which it might unfold as well as the implications for the Army and the U. S. military more generally. This report uses the generation of either "trajectories" or alternative paths in which the long war might unfold to explore the implications for the U. S. military.

This report presents a framework for assessing U. S. Army International Activities (AIA). It also provides a matrix of eight AIA ends, derived from top-level national and Army guidance, and eight AIA ways, which summarize the various capabilities inherent in AIA programs. In addition, the report describes the new online AIA Knowledge Sharing System (AIAKSS) that is being used to solicit programmatic and assessment data from AIA officials in the Army's Major Commands.

This book creates six alternative future worlds for the 2025 timeframe and draws out the implications of those worlds for U. S. Army force size, structure, and design.

How does the Army plan to ensure its continued access to potential trouble spots around the world? The authors developed scenarios and conducted political-military games to determine what strategies, tactics, and capabilities potential adversaries might use to complicate U. S. access to key areas and how effective the U. S. counters to these tactics are. They were sanguine about the ability of the U. S. to prevail in the short-term but also identified several conc erns and suggested areas of improvement, including expanding the number of in-theater bases that might be available; enhancing the flexibility and deployability of U. S. forces to more austere bases; and upgrading detection, warning, and force protection measures.

The 1990s have witnessed the beginning of what future historians may call the Information Age. While it is clear that information will have a far-reaching effect on a host of activities--including warfare--how to quantify and measure that effect is less clear. The understanding of how to do so is important to the Army, particularly at a time when it is spencing a considerable amount of its scarce investment capital to establish Information-Age links across its forces--the so-called digitization of the Army. As it transforms itself, the Army needs analytic tools to help make the best choices possible. Chief among these tools are good measures of effectiveness (MOEs) that can demonstrate the value of information in terms of military outcomes. This document reports on a small set of Information-Age MOEs developed in an attempt to spark the creation of many more such measures. This research demonstrates that development of MOEs is feasible, not only for combat operations but for stability operations as well.

As the 21st century unfold, the dynamics of population growth, settlement patterns, and movement across borders are certain to have an effect on international security. Demographic shifts in political environments that are already tense as a result of territorial disputes, ethnic rivalries, ideological divides, or environmental stresses may provide just enough pressure to spark a violent conflict or perhaps even outright war.