C. Raja Mohan

Few regions have transformed as consequentially as Asia in the twenty-first century. In recent decades, China has risen faster than its neighbours and today outranks its major proximate competitors – India and Japan – on economic and defence indices by huge margins. The United States’ interest in balancing against China is especially significant for India, because the contradictions between New Delhi and an increasingly assertive Beijing are the sharpest in the region. In this Adelphi book, C. Raja Mohan delineates the prospects for an Indian role in structuring a new Asian geopolitical order. Grounding his analysis in the (often neglected) evolution of modern Indian foreign and security policies from the colonial era to the twenty-first century, Mohan argues that China’s rise has compelled India to discard its traditional ambivalence about Chinese power and counter Beijing by strengthening its own national power and developing partnerships with other states, primarily the US. In addition to considering potential challenges to the emerging US–India strategic relationship, the book evaluates India’s likely contributions to a new Asian security, political and economic order in the light of both New Delhi’s enduring regional interests and the policy changes envisioned by the second Trump administration.

Intensifying geopolitical rivalries, rising defence spending and the proliferation of the latest military technology across Asia suggest that the region is set for a prolonged period of strategic contestation. None of the three competing visions for the future of Asian order – a US-led ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific’, a Chinese-centred order, or the ASEAN-inspired ‘Indo-Pacific Outlook’ – is likely to prevail in the short to medium term. In the absence of a new framework, the risk of open conflict is heightened, and along with it the need for effective mechanisms to maintain peace and stability. As Asia’s leaders seek to rebuild their economies and societies in the wake of COVID-19, they would do well to reflect upon the lessons offered by the pandemic and their applicability in the strategic realm. The societies that have navigated the crisis most effectively have been able to do so by putting in place stringent protective measures. Crisis-management and -avoidance mechanisms – and even, in the longer term, wider arms control – can be seen as the strategic equivalent of such measures, and as such they should be pursued with urgency in Asia to reduce the risks of an even greater calamity.

In recent years the narrative surrounding China’s “peaceful rise” has given way to a more ominous story of friction, ambition, and great-power rivalry. As Chinese foreign policy has grown more nationalist and assertive, its intensifying competition with the U. S. has assumed center stage. The impact on China's neighbors, by contrast, and their evolving responses, have received comparatively less attention. The Realist theory of international relations suggests the rapid accumulation of power by one nation-state will prompt its neighbors and peers to adopt Balancing strategies. They will strive enhance their internal defense capabilities and forge new external security partnerships to hedge against this potential new threat. Have these predictions rung true? Are key Indo-Pacific capitals Balancing, and drawing closer to the U. S. as insurance against Chinese aggression? Or is China a new breed of rising power, challenging traditional theories of international relations in a newly-globalized, economically interdependent world? In Asia’s Quest for Balance: China’s Rise and Balancing in the Indo-Pacific leading author-experts from Australia, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, and Vietnam explore these questions and more, decoding China’s complex and evolving relationships with its neighbors and exploring how their responses are altering the security landscape of the region. Contributions by Jay L. Batongbacal, Elliot Brennan, Tetsuo Kotani, Evan A. Laksmana, Joseph Chinyong Liow, Hunter Marston, Rory Medcalf, Sylvia Mishra, C. Raja Mohan, Prashanth Parameswaran, Jeff M. Smith, Tran Truong Thuy, and Ha Anh Tuan

Rising China and emerging India are becoming major maritime powers. As they build large navies to secure their growing interests, both nations are roiling the waters of the Indo-Pacific —the vast littoral stretching from Africa to Australasia. Invoking a tale from Hindu mythology — Samudra Manthan or ""to churn the ocean"" —C. Raja Mohan tells the story of a Sino-Indian rivalry spilling over from the Great Himalayas into the Indian and Pacific Oceans. He examines the prospects of mitigating the tensions and constructing a stable Indo-Pacific order. America, the dominant power in the area, is being drawn into the unfolding Sino-Indian competition. Despite the huge differences in the current naval capabilities of China, India, and the United States, Mohan argues that the three countries are locked in a triangular struggle destined to mould the future Indo-Pacific.