Carl Chiarella

This book investigates the interaction of effective goods demand with the wage-price spiral, and the impact of monetary policy on financial and the real markets from a Keynesian perspective. Endogenous business fluctuations are studied in the context of long-run distributive cycles in an advanced, rigorously formulated and quantitative setup. The material is developed by way of self-contained chapters on three levels of generality, an advanced textbook level, a research-oriented applied level and on a third level that shows how the interaction of real with financial markets has to be modelled from a truly integrative Keynesian perspective. Monetary Macrodynamics shows that the balanced growth path of a capitalist economy is unlikely to be attracting and that the cumulative forces that surround it are controlled in the large by changes in the behavioural factors that drive the wage-price spiral and the financial markets. Such behavioural changes can in fact be observed in actual economies in the interaction of demand-driven business fluctuations with supply-driven wage and price dynamics as they originate from the conflict over income distribution between capital and labour. The book is a detailed critique of US mainstream macroeconomics and uses rigorous dynamic macro-models of a descriptive and applicable nature. It will be of particular relevance to postgraduate students and researchers interested in disequilibrium processes, real wage feedback channels, financial markets and portfolio choice, financial accelerator mechanisms and monetary policy.

In this book the authors investigate, from the numerical perspective, the 18D core dynamics of a theoretical 39D representation of an applied Keynesian disequilibrium model of monetary growth of a small open economy. After considering the model from the viewpoint of national accounting, the authors provide a compact description of the intensive form of the model, its laws of motion and accompanying algebraic expressions and its unique interior steady state solution. The authors then give a survey of various types of subsystems that can be isolated from the integrated 18D dynamics by means of suitable assumptions. These subsystems and the full 18D dynamics are investigated and compared in the remainder of the paper from the perspective of bifurcation diagrams that separate situations of asymptotic stability from stable cyclical behaviour as well as pure explosiveness. In this way the authors lay the foundations for an analysis of business cycle fluctuations in applicable high order macrosystems, which will show, in contrast to what is generally believed to characterise such structural macroeconometric models, that applied integrated macrodynamical systems can have a variety of interesting more or less complex attractors which are surrounded by more or less long-phase transient behaviour. Such attractors are obtained in particular when locally explosive situations are turned into bounded dynamics by the addition of specifically tailored extrinsic behavioural non-linearities. The authors establish a Keynesian theory of endogenously generated business cycles where turning points are caused by globally non-linear behaviour, rather than by complex eigenvalues, around the steady state position of the economy.

The financial instability and its spillover to the real sector have become a great challenge to macro-economic theory. The book takes a Keynesian theoretical perspective, representing an attempt to revive what Keynes stressed in his General Theory, namely the role of the financial market in macroeconomic outcomes. Although this book is inspired and motivated by the Asian currency and financial crises in the years 1997-8 and the experiences of the currently evolving U. S. financial disruptions, it also focuses on reviving a modeling tradition that provides a theoretical framework that throws light on recent financial market episodes and disturbances and their macroeconomic effects. It brings to the forefront, as Keynes has suggested, the role of financial market stability for growth and macroeconomics. It criticizes theories that see economic disruptions and shocks rooted solely in the real side of the economy. It stresses the financial real interaction as the major source for macroeconomic instability and disruptions. This important new book from a group of Keynesian, but nonetheless technically oriented economists would be of most interest to specialists and graduate students in macroeconomics and financial economics, especially those with an interest in US and European financial markets, emerging market analysis, and dynamic economic modeling.

Building on The Dynamics of Keynesian Monetary Growth by Chiarella and Flaschel (2000), this book is a key contribution to business cycle theory, setting out a disequilibrium approach with gradual adjustments of the key macroeconomic variables. Its analytic study of a deterministic model of economic activity, inflation and income distribution integrates elements in the tradition of Keynes, Metzler and Goodwin (KMG). After a qualitative analysis of the basic feedback mechanisms, the authors calibrate the KMG model to the stylized facts of the business cycle in the U. S. economy, and then undertake a detailed numerical investigation of the local and global dynamics generated by the model. Finally, topical issues in monetary policy are studied in small macromodels as well as for the KMG model by incorporating an estimated Taylor-type interest rate reaction function. The stability features of this enhanced model are also compared to those of the original KMG model.

In the first part of this book, we treat interacting and small open economies. We do this from an historical perspective, starting from the Classical model of the gold standard and the specie-flow mechanism and aim to show there that the Dornbusch IS-LM-PC approach, with or without rational expectations, can still be considered as a (if not the) core contribution to contemporaneous open economy macrodynamics, also on the level of structural macroeconometric model building. In the second part we then extend this analysis to the incorporation of more disequilibrium on the real markets, prominent further feedback channels of the macrodynamic literature and integrated macromodel building. We start from the closed economy, consider large open economies in a fixed exchange rate system, small open economies subject to high capital mobility, and finally two large interacting economies like the USA and Euroland. Our macrofounded approach extends and integrates non-market clearing traditions to macrodynamics and can be usefully compared with the New Keynesian approaches which are generally rigorously microfounded, but often much more limited in scope in capturing full market and agent interactions.

This book is a companion volume to The Dynamics of Keynesian Monetary Growth. Macro Foundations by Chiarella & Flaschel, CUP 2000. It describes the computer package, Simulating Nonlinear Dynamics, designed to simulate the various high order macrodynamic models of that book. The package is quite general and can be applied to any well-defined continuous and discrete time dynamical system. One feature of the package is a set of powerful interactive graphical facilities. The first part of the book outlines the philosophy and mode of use ot the package, the second part provides an extensive set of applications to the macrodynamic models referred to in the title. The package is downloadable from http://www.business.uts.edu.au./finance/staff/carl.html.

Originally published in 2000, this book is in the tradition of non-market-clearing approaches to macrodynamic approaches. It builds a series of integrated disequilibrium growth models of increasing complexity, which display the economic interaction between households, firms and government across labour, goods, money, bonds and equities markets. Chiarella and Flaschel demonstrate how macrodynamics can be developed in a hierarchical way from economically simple structures to more advanced ones. In addition it investigates complex macrodynamic feedback mechanisms.

In this book on disequilibrium, growth and labor market dynamics we take predominantly a macroeconomic perspective. We present a working model that can easily be varied in different directions in order to subsume innovations in the literature on macroeconomics, old and new, and to contribute to important currently discussed macroeconomic issues. Our working model is set up in a way that there is a close relationship between our presented dynamic models and modern macro econometric models with disequilibrium both in the labor and the goods markets. One of our objectives is, therefore, to narrow the gap between theoretical and applied structural macrodynamic model building. We hope that the book will be a useful reference for all researchers, academic teachers and practitioners of macroeconomic and macro econometric model building who are interested in economic dynamics, independently of whether they use equilibrium or disequilibrium methods in their own research. We base this hope on the fact that our approach contains a number of unique features. The emphasis on the identification and analysis of the basic feedback mechanisms at work in modern macro economies. A detailed study of the partial as well as integrated dynamic interaction between these feedback mechanisms that consti­ tute the interdependence of markets and sectors of the modern macro economy. The rela­ tionship between the macroeconomic framework of our working model and the Walrasian, Non-Walrasian and New-Keynesian reformulations of macroeconomics.

Elements of a Nonlinear Theory of Economic Dynamics provides both a framework and a survey of its needs. First, principle results and techniques of the theory relevant to applications in dynamic economics are discussed, then their application in view of older endogenous cycle theories are considered in a unified mathematical framework. Models incorporating the government budget constraint and the Goodwin model are analysed using the method of averaging and the centre manifold theory. The dynamic instability problem is solved by placing models in a nonlinear framework.