Dirk Helbing

"Digital transformation" sounds harmless, given that the explosion in data volumes, processing power and Artificial Intelligence has driven humanity and the entire world to a point of no return. We will surely see a new civilization, but we are at a crossroads. The future needs to be re-invented, decisions must be taken. After the automation of factories and the creation of self-driving cars, the automation of society is on its way. But there are two kinds of automation: a centralized top-down control of the world and a distributed control approach, supporting local self-organization. Using the power of today’s information systems, governments and big tech companies seem to engage in the first approach. Might they even build a „digital Crystal Ball“ that knows almost everything, including your personality, and a super-intelligent "digital God“ to control what we do? We are much closer to such „science fiction scenarios“ than you probably think. In this much expanded second edition of "The Automation of Society is Next: How to Survive the Digital Revolution" (2015), the author discusses lessons learned on digital democracy, aspects of transhumanism and far-reaching thoughts about life in the digital age and what it may mean to be human in the future.

The rapidly progressing digital revolution is now touching the foundations of the governance of societal structures. Humans are on the verge of evolving from consumers to prosumers, and old, entrenched theories – in particular sociological and economic ones – are falling prey to these rapid developments. The original assumptions on which they are based are being questioned. Each year we produce as much data as in the entire human history - can we possibly create a global crystal ball to predict our future and to optimally govern our world? Do we need wide-scale surveillance to understand and manage the increasingly complex systems we are constructing, or would bottom-up approaches such as self-regulating systems be a better solution to creating a more innovative, more successful, more resilient, and ultimately happier society? Working at the interface of complexity theory, quantitative sociology and Big Data-driven risk and knowledge management, the author advocates the establishment of new participatory systems in our digital society to enhance coordination, reduce conflict and, above all, reduce the “tragedies of the commons,” resulting from the methods now used in political, economic and management decision-making. The authorPhysicist Dirk Helbing is Professor of Computational Social Science at the Department of Humanities, Social and Political Sciences and an affiliate of the Computer Science Department at ETH Zurich, as well as co-founder of ETH’s Risk Center. He is internationally known for the scientific coordination of the FuturICT Initiative which focuses on using smart data to understand techno-socio-economic systems. “Prof. Helbing has produced an insightful and important set of essays on the ways in which big data and complexity science are changing our understanding of ourselves and our society, and potentially allowing us to manage our societies much better than we are currently able to do. Of special note are the essays that touch on the promises of big data along with the dangers...this is material that we should all become familiar with!” Alex Pentland, MIT, author of Social Physics: How Good Ideas Spread - The Lessons From a New Science "Dirk Helbing has established his reputation as one of the leading scientific thinkers on the dramatic impacts of the digital revolution on our society and economy. Thinking Ahead is a most stimulating and provocative set of essays which deserves a wide audience.” Paul Ormerod, economist, and author of Butterfly Economics and Why Most Things Fail. "It is becoming increasingly clear that many of our institutions and social structures are in a bad way and urgently need fixing. Financial crises, international conflicts, civil wars and terrorism, inaction on climate change, problems of poverty, widening economic inequality, health epidemics, pollution and threats to digital privacy and identity are just some of the major challenges that we confront in the twenty-first century. These issues demand new and bold thinking, and that is what Dirk Helbing offers in this collection of essays. If even a fraction of these ideas pay off, the consequences for global governance could be significant. So this is a must-read book for anyone concerned about the future." Philip Ball, science writer and author of Critical Mass “This collection of papers, brought together by Dirk Helbing, is both timely and topical. It raises concerns about Big Data, which are truly frightening and disconcerting, that we do need to be aware of; while at the same time offering some hope that the technology, which has created the previously unthought-of dangers to our privacy, safety and democracy can be the means to address these dangers by enabling social, economic and political participation and coordination, not possible in the past. It makes for compelling reading and I hope for timely action.” Eve Mitleton-Kelly, LSE, author of Corporate Governance and Complexity Theory and editor of Co-evolution of Intelligent Socio-technical Systems

When I wrote the book Quantitative Sociodynamics, it was an early attempt to make methods from statistical physics and complex systems theory fruitful for the modeling and understanding of social phenomena. Unfortunately, the ?rst edition appeared at a quite prohibitive price. This was one reason to make these chapters available again by a new edition. The other reason is that, in the meantime, many of the methods discussed in this book are more and more used in a variety of different ?elds. Among the ideas worked out in this book are: 1 • a statistical theory of binary social interactions, • a mathematical formulation of social ?eld theory, which is the basis of social 2 force models, • a microscopic foundation of evolutionary game theory, based on what is known today as ‘proportional imitation rule’, a stochastic treatment of interactions in evolutionary game theory, and a model for the self-organization of behavioral 3 conventions in a coordination game. It, therefore, appeared reasonable to make this book available again, but at a more affordable price. To keep its original character, the translation of this book, which 1 D. Helbing, Interrelations between stochastic equations for systems with pair interactions. Ph- icaA 181, 29–52 (1992); D. Helbing, Boltzmann-like and Boltzmann-Fokker-Planck equations as a foundation of behavioral models. PhysicaA 196, 546–573 (1993). 2 D. Helbing, Boltzmann-like and Boltzmann-Fokker-Planck equations as a foundation of beh- ioral models. PhysicaA 196, 546–573 (1993); D.

In recent years flows in networks have attracted the interest of many researchers from different areas, e.g. applied mathematicians, engineers, physicists, economists. The main reason for this ubiquity is the wide and diverse range of applications, such as vehicular traffic, supply chains, blood flow, irrigation channels, data networks and others. This book presents an extensive set of notes by world leaders on the main mathematical techniques used to address such problems, together with investigations into specific applications. The main focus is on partial differential equations in networks, but ordinary differential equations and optimal transport are also included. Moreover, the modeling is completed by analysis, numerics, control and optimization of flows in networks. The book will be a valuable resource for every researcher or student interested in the subject.

Der Verkehr spielt in unserer industrialisierten Gesellschaft zweifellos eine wichtige Rolle. Wir verdanken ihm nicht nur unsere Bewegungsfreiheit, son- dern auch unseren Wohlstand. Seit einigen Jahren werden jedoch die Grenzen der Mobilitat angesichts kilometerlanger Staus und zunehmender Umwelt- probleme uniibersehbar. Daher blieb das Thema "Verkehr" nicht mehr eini- gen Verkehrsingenieuren vorbehalten, sondern es wurde zum gesellschaftlich relevanten Politikum und erlangte eine breite offentliche Aufmerksamkeit. Mittlerweile befassen sich mit ihm, auBer renommierten Fachzeitschriften, Massenmedien aller Art. Gleichzeitig hat das internationale Interesse an der Erforschung des Ver- kehrs enorm zugenommen. Besonders unter Physikern ist in jiingster Zeit ein starkes Engagement zu verzeichnen, was zu einer rasanten wissenschaftlichen Entwicklung und einer wahren Veroffentlichungsfiut gefiihrt hat.! Dafiir gibt es folgende Griinde: - Einerseits besteht ein dringender Bedarf an Methoden zur Optimierung des Verkehrsfiusses, urn die bestehende Infrastruktur effizienter nutzen zu konnen. Entsprechende Forschungsprojekte werden staatlich gefordert. - Andererseits verspricht man sich durch den Verkauf intelligenter Verkehrs- leitsysteme europaweit einen jahrlichen Umsatz von 200 Milliarden DM [434]. Das Engagement der Industrie ist folglich ausgesprochen groB. - AuBerdem ermoglichen moderne Computer mittlerweile umfangreiche Ver- kehrssimulationen, so daB eine Berechnung der Verkehrsstrome schneller als in Echtzeit in greifbare Nahe riickt, selbst fiir das Autobahnnetz der gesamten Bundesrepublik [35]. - SchlieBlich wirft die Verkehrsdynamik eine Vielzahl spannender Fragen auf, deren exakte wissenschaftliche Behandlung auBerst knifHig und eine Her- ausforderung an sich ist.

When I wrote the book Quantitative Sociodynamics, it was an early attempt to make methods from statistical physics and complex systems theory fruitful for the modeling and understanding of social phenomena. Unfortunately, the ?rst edition appeared at a quite prohibitive price. This was one reason to make these chapters available again by a new edition. The other reason is that, in the meantime, many of the methods discussed in this book are more and more used in a variety of different ?elds. Among the ideas worked out in this book are: 1 • a statistical theory of binary social interactions, • a mathematical formulation of social ?eld theory, which is the basis of social 2 force models, • a microscopic foundation of evolutionary game theory, based on what is known today as ‘proportional imitation rule’, a stochastic treatment of interactions in evolutionary game theory, and a model for the self-organization of behavioral 3 conventions in a coordination game. It, therefore, appeared reasonable to make this book available again, but at a more affordable price. To keep its original character, the translation of this book, which 1 D. Helbing, Interrelations between stochastic equations for systems with pair interactions. Ph- icaA 181, 29–52 (1992); D. Helbing, Boltzmann-like and Boltzmann-Fokker-Planck equations as a foundation of behavioral models. PhysicaA 196, 546–573 (1993). 2 D. Helbing, Boltzmann-like and Boltzmann-Fokker-Planck equations as a foundation of beh- ioral models. PhysicaA 196, 546–573 (1993); D.

Der Verkehr spielt in unserer industrialisierten Gesellschaft zweifellos eine wichtige Rolle. Wir verdanken ihm nicht nur unsere Bewegungsfreiheit, son- dern auch unseren Wohlstand. Seit einigen Jahren werden jedoch die Grenzen der Mobilitat angesichts kilometerlanger Staus und zunehmender Umwelt- probleme uniibersehbar. Daher blieb das Thema "Verkehr" nicht mehr eini- gen Verkehrsingenieuren vorbehalten, sondern es wurde zum gesellschaftlich relevanten Politikum und erlangte eine breite offentliche Aufmerksamkeit. Mittlerweile befassen sich mit ihm, auBer renommierten Fachzeitschriften, Massenmedien aller Art. Gleichzeitig hat das internationale Interesse an der Erforschung des Ver- kehrs enorm zugenommen. Besonders unter Physikern ist in jiingster Zeit ein starkes Engagement zu verzeichnen, was zu einer rasanten wissenschaftlichen Entwicklung und einer wahren Veroffentlichungsfiut gefiihrt hat.! Dafiir gibt es folgende Griinde: - Einerseits besteht ein dringender Bedarf an Methoden zur Optimierung des Verkehrsfiusses, urn die bestehende Infrastruktur effizienter nutzen zu konnen. Entsprechende Forschungsprojekte werden staatlich gefordert. - Andererseits verspricht man sich durch den Verkauf intelligenter Verkehrs- leitsysteme europaweit einen jahrlichen Umsatz von 200 Milliarden DM [434]. Das Engagement der Industrie ist folglich ausgesprochen groB. - AuBerdem ermoglichen moderne Computer mittlerweile umfangreiche Ver- kehrssimulationen, so daB eine Berechnung der Verkehrsstrome schneller als in Echtzeit in greifbare Nahe riickt, selbst fiir das Autobahnnetz der gesamten Bundesrepublik [35]. - SchlieBlich wirft die Verkehrsdynamik eine Vielzahl spannender Fragen auf, deren exakte wissenschaftliche Behandlung auBerst knifHig und eine Her- ausforderung an sich ist.