Gregory Aftandilian

Egypt has long been a leader of the Arab world or at least aspired to be one at various times in its modern history. This leadership quest stems from its position as the most populous Arab country centered in the heart of the region, its geography nestled between the Mediterranean and Red Seas with the vital Suez Canal connecting them, its closeness (literally and figuratively) to the Israeli-Palestinian scene, and its relative proximity to the Gulf region. Moreover, Egypt boasts longstanding intellectual centers (religious and secular), has an educated strata of respected professionals, as well as a highly competent diplomatic corps and military establishment. Since 2011, however, Egypt has generally focused inward as it had to cope with turbulent political and economic developments arising in large part because of the fallout from the Arab Spring. It is currently facing a number of challenges, such as a stubborn terrorism problem that is chiefly based in the Sinai region, and economic austerity measures.

The Middle East is facing a period of great instability and uncertainty. The region is beset with civil wars, sectarian conflicts between Sunnis and Shias, the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant and its competition with al-Qaeda, and conflicts between countries and factions opposing and supporting the Muslim Brotherhood and like-minded Islamist groups. The question arises as to whether an Arab regional order can be found amidst these conflicts and, if so, what types of opportunities and challenges does it pose for U. S. interests and policies in the region? Middle East expert Gregory Aftandilian, the author of this monograph, argues that there is, indeed, a new Arab regional order, but it is essentially two orders: one has arisen in the wake of the tumult in the so-called Arab Spring countries, which has led to conflicts between Islamist political organizations and their opponents; the other is a result of the Houthi takeover of large parts of Yemen, which has exacerbated Sunni-Shia...

Egypt, a pivotal country in the Middle East, is facing a significant terrorism problem emanating from the strategically important Sinai Peninsula, which borders the vital Suez Canal waterway to its west and Israel and the unstable Gaza Strip to its east. Terrorist groups in the Sinai have not only attacked Egyptian security forces and foreign tourists in that region (along with periodic attacks against Israeli border posts) but have taken their fight to the Egyptian mainland, which has caused anxiety among the public. The Egyptian government has used heavy-handed tactics against these terrorist groups and their sympathizers in the Sinai, but with mixed results. Although the level of violence has dipped since the summer of 2013, the terrorist groups continue to be active.

The Middle East is again in the midst of turmoil. While much of the focus is on the sectarian divide and conflict between Sunni and Shia being played out in several countries and among different groups, an equally important division is occurring between secularists and Islamists in a number of Arab countries. This conflict is particularly acute in the countries of the so-called Arab Spring. The removal of the authoritarian leaders in these countries has led to intense competition between Islamists parties and their secular detractors, and the two sides of this divide have very different visions of where they want their societies to be headed. Islamists initially have an advantage politically because of their history of being a repressed opposition movement, their charitable work among the poor, and their appeal to religion, but secularists, while weak in terms of grass-roots organization, often have powerful institutional allies in these societies, such as the military, judiciary, and trade unions.