Herman Pirchner

Now in apparent robust health, Russian President Vladimir Putin (age 66) could remain in power for another decade or even longer. But he will not keep power forever. From declining health to forced retirement to assassination, a multitude of factors could force Putin to leave the political scene and bring new leadership to Moscow. If so, who might come to power, and what policy changes can be expected during, and after, what may well be a protracted power struggle? Post Putin is a prescient examination of the variables that could contribute to Putin’s departure from political power, and the competing forces with which any potential successor will need to contend.

Now in apparent robust health, Russian President Vladimir Putin (age 66) could remain in power for another decade or even longer. But he will not keep power forever. From declining health to forced retirement to assassination, a multitude of factors could force Putin to leave the political scene and bring new leadership to Moscow. If so, who might come to power, and what policy changes can be expected during, and after, what may well be a protracted power struggle? Post Putin is a prescient examination of the variables that could contribute to Putin’s departure from political power, and the competing forces with which any potential successor will need to contend.

In December 2001, a new Russian law laying the basis for the peaceful territorial expansion of the Russian Federation went into effect. The entire country of Belarus-as well as parts of Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine-are the most likely candidates to join Russia. Should this largely ethnically-based expansion occur, Russia would grow by more than 20 million people, and the resultant rise in Russian nationalism might encourage further Russian territorial ambitions-especially those directed at Ukraine. Even if Russian expansion stops with all, or part, of these territories, it could breathe new life into the ethnically based border problems of other countries. Co-published with the American Foreign Policy Council.