Indermit S. Gill

This report is about the twelve countries of the former Soviet Union (Eurasia). About 85 percent of the region's economic output is in six resource-rich economies. Today, 85 percent of Eurasia's 280 million people are no longer poor. But academics who study resource-based economies debate whether these countries are cursed or blessed. And Eurasia's policymakers long for the day when their economies are less extractive and more innovative. These observations prompt questions. Are resources a blessing or a curse? If it is one of these things, what would make it into the other? How much should Eurasia try to diversify their exports and economies away from natural resources? Are there ways to make Eurasian economies both extractive and innovative? The answers: a large majority of Eurasia's people should consider themselves blessed. To make sure that this blessing does not become a curse, Eurasian economies have to become efficient, more productive, job-creating, and stable. But efficiency is not the same as diversification: there is little evidence that more concentrated economies have slower productivity growth, fewer jobs, or much more economic volatility. Governments need to worry less about the composition of exports and production and more about asset portfolios-natural resources, built capital, and economic institutions. They have much to do. Eurasia's portfolios are heavy in tangibles like oil and gas and roads and railways and light in intangibles such as the institutions for managing resource earnings, providing social services, and regulating enterprise. But tangibles are not what distinguish success from failure-investments in intangibles, early in their development, have made some resource-rich countries both extractive and innovative.

The public debt crisis in Europe has shaken the confidence not just in the Euro, but in the European model. Ageing and uneconomical Europeans are being squeezed between innovative Americans and efficient Asians, it is said. With debt and demographics dragging down them down, one hears that European economies will not grow much unless radically new ways are discovered. The end of complacency in Europe is a good thing, but this loss of confidence could be dangerous. The danger is that in a rush to rejuvenate growth, the attractive attributes of the European development model could be abandoned along with the weak. In fact, the European growth model has many strong points and enviable accomplishments. One can say without exaggeration that Europe had invented a convergence machine, taking in poor countries and helping them become high income economies. World Bank research has identified 27 countries that have grown from middle-income to high income since 1987: a few thanks to the discovery and exploitation of massive natural resources (e.g.: oil in Oman and Trinidad and Tobago), several others like Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, and South Korea, embracing aggressive export-led strategies which involved working and saving a lot, postponing political liberties, and looking out only for themselves. But half of the countries that have grown from middle income to high income - Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Malta, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, and Slovenia are actually in Europe. This is why the European model was so attractive and unique, and why with some well designed efforts it ought to be made right again.

Empirical analysis of two decades of pioneering pension and social security reform in Latin America and the Caribbean shows that much has been achieved, but that critical challenges remain. In tackling the unfinished agenda, a great deal can be learned from the reform experience of countries in the region. Keeping the Promise, produced by the chief economist's office in the Latin America and Caribbean Region at the World Bank, evaluates policy reforms in twelve countries, points to successes and shortcomings, and proposes priorities and options for future reform. The authors argue that poverty in old age can be prevented by relentless efforts to extend coverage to broader segments of society, and by encouraging personal savings.

Empirical analysis of two decades of pioneering pension and social security reform in Latin America and the Caribbean shows that much has been achieved, but that critical challenges remain. In tackling this unfinished agenda, a great deal can be learned from the reform experience of countries in the region. Keeping the Promise, produced by the chief economist's office in the Latin America and Caribbean Region at the World Bank, evaluates policy reforms in 12 countries, points to successes and shortcomings, and proposes priorities and options for future reform. ""Keeping the Promise provides a timely assessment of two decades of pension reform experience-with a wealth of new data, and empirical evaluation of reformed social security systems. Many economists and policymakers will not be persuaded by some of the main conclusions and recommendations-such as the supposed failure to increase coverage, and the call for strengthening a pay-as-you-go defined-benefit scheme for poverty prevention-but they will welcome the book's critical appraisal. This is required reading for pension specialists and policymakers in Latin America and beyond.""-Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, Chief of Economic Research, Central Bank of Chile ""A heavyweight analysis of the Latin American pension revolution which raises important questions about the optimal scale of compulsory saving when redesigning pension systems. "" -Paul Wallace, The Economist