Joan Chang

In this report, the authors explore the equities of four middle powers-Australia, Canada, Japan, and the United Kingdom-and roles that they might play in deterring or limiting conflict between China and Taiwan over the Taiwan Strait. A country's equities are its long-term interests in a scenario, such as a cross-Strait conflict. Middle powers are nations that are not small but lack the size and influence to significantly disrupt global affairs.

This paper shares the results of an exercise hosted by the RAND Corporation to explore the risk of escalation from Chinese activities in the gray zone to conventional war. The results showed an overall low risk of Taiwanese escalation because of Chinese military power and Chinese and U. S. constraints on Taiwan's decisionmaking. The exercise's U. S. team would consider escalation to military force only if Taiwan faced an existential threat.