John Creedy

George Warde Norman, 1793-1882, a Director of the Bank of England 1821-72, was an important figure in both the development and the implementation of the theory of monetary control, embodied in the Bank Charter Act of 1844. Norman wrote an Autobiography covering his first 54 years, and this provides a remarkable portrait not only of Norman himself but of the social and intellectual network in which he lived. He was an intimate of the Utilitarians, especially George Grote with whom there was ultimately a quarrel which has never been made public before. He was a businessman, at first in the timber trade, in which connection he spent time in Norway, and made the acquaintance of Napoleon’s Marshall, Bernadotte, by then King of Sweden and Norway, and then in fire insurance. He also wrote on economic matters, not only on monetary issues but also on trade theory and taxation. The Autobiography, which has survived fire and flood, was rediscovered in the 1960s by D. P. O’Brien who at that time prepared a typescript which has been used by scholars. With the release of this edition, the work is now available for the first time in a fully edited and corrected version. It should be of interest to historians of economic thought, economic historians, and students of nineteenth century intellectual history and society.

Comparing Income Distributions brings together John Creedy’s recent original research and analyses of income distribution. The book is concerned with both static, or cross-sectional, comparisons, and dynamic aspects of income mobility. The author presents new methods of depicting and measuring income mobility and poverty persistence. Income mobility is explored in terms of individuals’ relative income changes and their positional changes within the distribution. The first half of the book covers a range of technical aspects of inequality measurement, including less well-known properties of inequality indices, and the decomposition of inequality changes into component contributions. The second half explores various aspects of the graphical display and measurement of income mobility. While the focus of the book is on methods, illustrative examples are provided using New Zealand data. Graduate students, public sector economists, and researchers interested in income distribution will welcome this important work.

Combining theoretical and practical aspects of policy analysis, this book evaluates actual and proposed policy reforms to income tax and transfer systems, using a behavioural tax microsimulation model. It highlights how these models allow for the full details of tax systems and the considerable population heterogeneity that is found in practice. John Creedy and Penny Mok look at how such models can be used to obtain summary measures that are relevant in tax debates. These include elasticities of labour supply and measures of the welfare effects of tax changes, in terms of excess burdens. Chapters further examine how models can be used to search systematically, across a range of policy changes, for revenue-neutral reforms which result in an improvement, in terms of an explicit evaluation function. This will be a timely read for students of public finance, welfare and labour economics. The careful attention paid to metrics used in policy evaluations will also make this a useful book for researchers and policy advisors concerned with income taxation, social transfers, inequality and poverty measurement.

This timely book analyses the elasticity of taxable income, a central concept in public finance with a rapidly growing wealth of literature. Combining original empirical research with rigorous theoretical modelling of tax revenue and optimal tax policy, this innovative study examines the complexities and new methods of estimating the elasticity of taxable income. Clarifying the role of the elasticity of taxable income in influencing total tax revenue in a complex multi-rate structure, John Creedy divides the change in revenue into various components to derive revenue-maximising rates. He examines the welfare effects and ‘excess burden’ of income taxation, and considers the role of the elasticity in ‘optimal’ tax rates and administrative policy aiming to reduce tax evasion. The book concludes with a discussion concerning the problems and various methods of elasticity estimation, including regression and bunching. With detailed illustrations to expand and engage, this will prove an invaluable read for students and scholars of economics, particularly those focusing on the economics of taxation and tax policy. The empirical analyses and practical insights will also benefit public sector economists and policy analysts concerned with tax design.

Presenting innovative modelling approaches to the analysis of fiscal policy and government debt, this book moves beyond previous models that have relied upon the assumption that various age-specific rates and policy variables remain unchanged when it comes to generating government expenditures and tax revenues. As a result of population ageing, current policy settings in many countries are projected to lead to unsustainable levels of public debt; Tax Policy and Uncertainty explores models that allow for feedbacks and uncertainty to combat this. Applicable to any country, the models in the book explore the optimal timing and extent of tax changes in the face of anticipated high future debt. Chapters produce stochastic debt projections, including probability distribution of debt ratios at each point in time. It also offers important analysis of fiscal policy trade-offs as well as providing advice on when and by how much tax rates should be increased. Economics scholars focusing on fiscal policy will appreciate the improved models in this book that allow both for uncertainty and feedback effects arising from responses to increased debt. It will also be helpful to economic policy advisors and economists in government departments.

This rigorous yet lucid book is concerned with the analysis of tax design and the problems involved in choosing a tax and transfer structure. John Creedy discusses fundamental problems which are then illustrated using relatively simple models. Following a comprehensive introduction, part II is concerned with the link between economic theory and tax policy, and considers why it is so difficult to design a tax and transfer structure that receives widespread support. Part III explores particular types of tax and transfer structure, and alternative approaches to the choice of tax rates within these systems. Part IV examines tax revenue and its variations, including the concepts of tax revenue elasticity and the elasticity of taxable income, whilst part V offers an examination of two wide-ranging reviews of tax structures. The author argues that economists can make a valuable contribution to rational policy debate by clarifying the nature of the interdependencies and relationships involved. This comprehensive book will appeal to researchers and graduate students in public finance, public economics and taxation, as well as economists in governmental departments and international organizations. Contents: Part I: Introduction 1. Introduction and Outline Part II: Theory and Policy 2. Tax and Transfer Tensions 3. Income Tax Structure: Theory and Policy Part III: Tax Functions and Choices 4. The Linear Tax Function 5. Choosing a Linear Income Tax Rate 6. A Loglinear Tax Function 7. A Tax-Free Threshold 8. In-Work Payment With Hours Threshold 9. Welfare-Improving Tax Reforms 10. Policy Evaluations and Value Judgements Part IV: Tax Revenue 11. Fiscal Drag and Tax Revenue Elasticities 12. The Elasticity of Taxable Income 13. Changes in Income Tax Revenue 14. Diagrammatic Treatment of Tax Revenue Part V: Tax Reviews 16. The IFS and Tax by Design

The composition of government expenditure varies considerably across countries. The aim of this book is to explore the choice of expenditure using a range of modelling approaches. The models allow for different economic environments, involving the types of expenditure considered, the time period of analysis and the behavior of individuals. The composition of expenditure is examined using majority voting and public finance frameworks, where the latter involves maximization of a social welfare function involving a trade-off between equity and efficiency. Special attention is given to expenditure on transfer payments, public goods and education. Empirical analyses are also carried out, using data for a wide range of countries, where potential orders of magnitude of various components of the models are obtained. The models help in considering important factors and the inter-relationships involved. In particular, a synthesis is provided which allows special consideration of the role of basic inequality in influencing expenditure patterns. The book will be of considerable value to students and researchers interested in public economics.

Modelling Corporation Tax Revenue examines the revenue growth properties of corporate income taxes and how firms respond to changes in corporation tax. It provides a companion volume to the authors’ Modelling Tax Revenue Growth, which explores the revenue growth and behavioural response properties of income and consumption taxes. John Creedy and Norman Gemmell examine the corporation tax structure and the implications for revenue elasticity both for individual corporations and for all firms combined. The authors highlight how asymmetries in the treatment of positive and negative profits in the tax structure affect firms’ revenues and behaviours, and demonstrate that the examination of corporation tax revenue requires a detailed treatment of dynamic aspects. Within the book, a dynamic microsimulation model is constructed and used to examine profits and taxes over hypothetical business cycles, concentrating on the revenue elasticity and profit shifting responses to tax changes. This comprehensive yet concise book will appeal to researchers and graduate students in public finance, public economics and taxation, as well as economists in governmental departments and international organisations.

This highly topical book explores key issues in evaluating the long-run implications of population ageing for pensions, taxation, intergenerational equity and social welfare. Societies face long-term phenomena, such as demographic change and climate change that impose costs and benefits far into the future. These present challenges for policymakers in planning intertemporal consumption paths that balance the goals of efficiency and equity. An exploration of these issues, with respect to population ageing in particular, is the primary motivation for this book. John Creedy and Ross Guest evaluate these problems with a particular focus on the role of concepts, assumptions and value judgements. This book will be a fascinating read for researchers interested in the social evaluation of population ageing and climate change. Public policy makers and advisers will find the analysis of practical policy questions such as alternative regimes for taxing public pensions of special interest. Graduate students of macroeconomics and public economics will also find helpful discussions of social discounting, the efficiency and equity effects of tax smoothing, and potential new effects of population ageing on labour productivity.

Research Without Tears provides a concise and fascinating guide for those starting their first research project and writing a paper, report or thesis. John Creedy, a widely published writer himself in both journals and books, argues that the process of planning and executing a research project, and producing a research paper which communicates results in a clear and succinct way, is far from self-evident even to those with extensive experience of writing other types of report or essay. This unique and invaluable book therefore sets down explicitly some of those points that even experienced researchers often take for granted. The book covers topics including: planning a first research project; writing a first research paper; writing a thesis and the relationship with a supervisor; the differences between journal and book publishing and what to expect from editors of both publishing formats. It also offers invaluable advice on structure, writing clearly and pitfalls to avoid as well as the processes involved in publishing. This highly interesting and valuable book will be essential reading for students and academics in economics and other related disciplines.

Research Without Tears provides a concise and fascinating guide for those starting their first research project and writing a paper, report or thesis. John Creedy, a widely published writer himself in both journals and books, argues that the process of planning and executing a research project, and producing a research paper which communicates results in a clear and succinct way, is far from self-evident even to those with extensive experience of writing other types of report or essay. This unique and invaluable book therefore sets down explicitly some of those points that even experienced researchers often take for granted. The book covers topics including: planning a first research project; writing a first research paper; writing a thesis and the relationship with a supervisor; the differences between journal and book publishing and what to expect from editors of both publishing formats. It also offers invaluable advice on structure, writing clearly and pitfalls to avoid as well as the processes involved in publishing. This highly interesting and valuable book will be essential reading for students and academics in economics and other related disciplines.

Tax policy questions may relate to specific problems, concerning perhaps the revenue implications of a particular tax, or they may involve an extensive analysis of the cost and redistributive effects of many taxes and transfer payments. This book is concerned with the ways in which tax policy design can be enhanced by the use of a behavioural tax microsimulation model capable of evaluating the effects of planned or actual tax reforms. An advantage of such a large-scale tax simulation model, which reflects the heterogeneity of the population and captures the details of the tax structure, is that it can examine detailed practical policy questions and can provide direct inputs into policy debates. After introducing behavioural models, the authors discuss the role of means testing, several hypothetical policy reforms, actual and proposed reforms and recent modelling developments. Tax Policy Design and Behavioural Microsimulation Modelling will be of interest to academics and researchers of economics, econometrics and public finance. It will also be useful reading for policymakers responsible for the formulation of taxation.

This book develops a number of analytical models and presents empirical analyses of the equity and efficiency effects of existing indirect taxes from New Zealand. Potential tax reforms including environmental taxes are also examined and the methods presented can easily be adapted to deal with other countries. Policy debates are inevitably influenced by value judgements, which are seldom made explicit either by governments or those engaging in public discussion. By concentrating on the empirical orders of magnitude, and by examining the implications of adopting alternative value judgements, the findings of this book contribute towards rational policy debate, rather than relying on guesswork and rhetoric. The equity and efficiency effects of indirect taxes are examined in detail, using the central concepts of welfare changes, the excess burden of taxation, and money metric utility measures. The indirect taxes examined include a carbon tax designed to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. The Distributional Effects of Indirect Taxes develops widely applicable models and will therefore appeal to economists interested in public economics, tax policy, inequality measurement, welfare economics and tax modelling. Economists in government departments and international agencies interested in public finance and inequality and poverty measurement will also find much to engage them in this book, as will policymakers concerned with indirect and environmental tax policy, inequality, and welfare economics.

This book provides a detailed introduction to behavioural tax microsimulation methods and reviews the use of such models for evaluating tax policy reforms. The steps required to construct a microsimulation model are described in detail and methods of evaluating policy changes are then presented. Labour Supply and Microsimulation deals with a number of issues related to interpreting results from microsimulation, such as welfare measurement, income distribution, confidence intervals around the simulated results and feedback effects on the wage distribution via labour demand. All of the approaches and proposed methods are general and not model-specific. The book includes detailed descriptions of how labour supply models can be used in building behavioural microsimulation models as well as the development of new methods for evaluating policy reforms; for example, dealing with income distribution in discrete hours models, measuring welfare changes and constructing confidence intervals. John Creedy and Guyonne Kalb's book will appeal to graduate students and academic researchers in the fields of labour economics and public finance. Economists in government departments who wish to use the output from microsimulation models in tax policy analysis and design will also find much to engage them within the book.

This book demonstrates how the reliable measurement of growth in tax revenues, both for a tax system and for its component taxes, is important for the design of tax policy. The need for discretionary changes in tax parameters (such as tax rates, income thresholds and allowances) is conditional on the expected automatic revenue growth generated by the tax system. The properties that generate these automatic revenue changes are referred to as the built-in flexibility, or revenue responsiveness, of the tax. This concept is the central focus of the analyses in this book, which provides an invaluable review and synthesis of analytical results and demonstrates how this concept can be applied in practice to yield estimates of revenue responsiveness in various countries. John Creedy and Norman Gemmell highlight how an understanding of the principal determinants of a tax system's responsiveness, and a knowledge of the relevant magnitudes, are important for the design and reform of tax policy where both revenue and redistributional considerations are typically central to the policy agenda. Providing extensions of analysis to cover indirect taxes, and direct and indirect taxes combined, as well as empirical applications for several countries, Modelling Tax Revenue Growth will be warmly welcomed by researchers and graduate students interested in public finance and government officials and those in international organisations interested in tax revenue growth.

Microsimulation Modelling of Taxation and the Labour Market reports new research on behavioural microsimulation modelling of tax and transfer systems. Its aims are twofold. Firstly, the book discusses the rationale for the basic modelling approach adopted and provides information on econometric methods used to estimate behavioural relationships. Secondly, it describes the Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator (MITTS) in detail, explaining its main features, installation and use. After providing a broad review of tax modelling, the authors review alternative approaches to the analysis of labour supply behaviour, discuss the main components of behavioural microsimulation models and present econometric results concerning wage functions and preferences. They go on to provide a detailed description of MITTS, which was constructed by the authors in order to examine the implications of tax reforms in Australia. Microsimulation Modelling of Taxation and the Labour Market will appeal to those with a special interest in the analysis of tax and transfer systems and labour supply behaviour.

Nonlinear Models, Labour Markets and Exchange offers a number of broad introductory surveys in the areas of nonlinear modelling, labour economics and the economic analysis of exchange. This collection of articles consists largely of recently published refereed papers. The early chapters provide an introduction to the analysis of 'chaos and strange attractors' and the use of the very flexible generalised exponential family of frequency distributions in analysing both time series and cross-sectional distributions. The volume then provides syntheses of the theories of internal labour markets, trade union bargaining, and population ageing and its implications. It goes on to survey a range of topics in the broad area of the theory of exchange, which is central to the neoclassical economic model. Finally, the book provides some advice for students who are about to start their first piece of research. It ends with a unique survey of the history of economic analysis. Providing introductory material and syntheses of a wide range of topics, Nonlinear Models, Labour Markets and Exchange will be welcomed by economics academics and researchers interested in labour economics and econometrics.

This book collects recent research on modelling income distribution and redistribution by John Creedy and a number of other eminent co-authors. The book opens with the main results of a research programme, largely with Vance Martin, on distributional modelling using the generalised exponential family. The authors argue that the major advantages of this family are its flexibility, particularly in handling multimodality, and the explicit link with structural demand and supply models. The book goes on to discuss the research, undertaken with Alex Bakker, on the effects of macroeconomic variables, particularly unemployment and inflation, on the personal distribution. The use of the generalised exponential family in this context is explored, as well as the use of mixture distributions. Finally, income redistribution is examined in depth. This includes work, mainly with Justin van de Ven, on decomposing the redistributive effects of taxes into vertical, horizontal and reranking effects. The final chapters, with Duangkamon Chotikapanich, explore the Bayesian estimation of a range of social welfare, inequality and tax progressivity measures. Posterior distributions of the measures are obtained. Modelling Income Distribution should be of interest to a wide range of academics and researchers with an interest in welfare economics and econometric theory.

Taxation and Economic Behaviour offers a number of broad introductory surveys in the areas of public economics and public finance. Divided clearly into two parts - measurement issues and taxation and economic behaviour - this innovative collection of articles consists of published refereed papers and several new and previously unpublished pieces. Initially, the book focuses on measurement issues, and includes chapters on income inequality, poverty, tax progressivity, income dynamics and welfare changes. It then goes on to explore the wider theme of taxation and economic behaviour, including material on taxation and labour supply, behavioural micro simulation modelling, and general equilibrium. Throughout the book, John Creedy makes use of numerical examples which help to illustrate the structure and use of the various models. Providing introductory material and syntheses of a wide range of topics, Taxation and Economic Behaviour will be welcomed by students, lecturers and researchers with an interest in public finance and public sector economics.

Indirect taxes have become an increasingly important revenue-raising tool for governments in developed countries. In this book, John Creedy applies his wealth of experience and expertise to the analysis of indirect taxes and, in particular, concentrates on the modelling of indirect tax reform and its distributional implications. Initially, he examines the implications of alternative indirect tax systems and provides an introductory survey of various measures of welfare change and excess burden in the context of indirect taxes. He pays particular attention to the measurement issues involved and uses partial equilibrium models to uncover various aspects of tax reform. Specifically, he:addresses the questions of measuring welfare changes arising from price changesexamines the built-in flexibility of various forms of consumption taxationcalculates the possible redistributive effects of indirect taxes and illustrates his methods using case study examples of the indirect tax system in Australiaexamines the horizontal inequity of different consumption taxesconsiders the optimal direction of small changes in indirect tax ratesanalyses the positive and negative effects of a carbon taxModelling Indirect Taxes and Tax Reform will be useful to scholars and policymakers interested in public economics and finance and modelling taxes.