Joshua M. Epstein

This book is based on a series of lectures on mathematical biology, the essential dynamics of complex and crucially important social systems, and the unifying power of mathematics and nonlinear dynamical systems theory.

Joshua M. Epstein argues that prevailing assumptions about the East- West balance of power rest on erroneous measures of military strength. He develops a method for analyzing military capabilities and applies that general procedure to the Soviet tactical air threat to NATO. Originally published in 1984. The Princeton Legacy Library uses the latest print-on-demand technology to again make available previously out-of-print books from the distinguished backlist of Princeton University Press. These editions preserve the original texts of these important books while presenting them in durable paperback and hardcover editions. The goal of the Princeton Legacy Library is to vastly increase access to the rich scholarly heritage found in the thousands of books published by Princeton University Press since its founding in 1905.

Joshua M. Epstein argues that prevailing assumptions about the East- West balance of power rest on erroneous measures of military strength. He develops a method for analyzing military capabilities and applies that general procedure to the Soviet tactical air threat to NATO. Originally published in 1984. The Princeton Legacy Library uses the latest print-on-demand technology to again make available previously out-of-print books from the distinguished backlist of Princeton University Press. These editions preserve the original texts of these important books while presenting them in durable paperback and hardcover editions. The goal of the Princeton Legacy Library is to vastly increase access to the rich scholarly heritage found in the thousands of books published by Princeton University Press since its founding in 1905.

The Final Volume of the Groundbreaking Trilogy on Agent-Based Modeling In this pioneering synthesis, Joshua Epstein introduces a new theoretical entity: Agent_Zero. This software individual, or "agent," is endowed with distinct emotional/affective, cognitive/deliberative, and social modules. Grounded in contemporary neuroscience, these internal components interact to generate observed, often far-from-rational, individual behavior. When multiple agents of this new type move and interact spatially, they collectively generate an astonishing range of dynamics spanning the fields of social conflict, psychology, public health, law, network science, and economics. Epstein weaves a computational tapestry with threads from Plato, Hume, Darwin, Pavlov, Smith, Tolstoy, Marx, James, and Dostoevsky, among others. This transformative synthesis of social philosophy, cognitive neuroscience, and agent-based modeling will fascinate scholars and students of every stripe. Epstein's computer programs are provided in the book or on its Princeton University Press website, along with movies of his "computational parables." Agent_Zero is a signal departure in what it includes (e.g., a new synthesis of neurally grounded internal modules), what it eschews (e. g., standard behavioral imitation), the phenomena it generates (from genocide to financial panic), and the modeling arsenal it offers the scientific community. For generative social science, Agent_Zero presents a groundbreaking vision and the tools to realize it.

This book is based on a series of lectures on mathematical biology, the essential dynamics of complex and crucially important social systems, and the unifying power of mathematics and nonlinear dynamical systems theory.

How do social structures and group behaviors arise from the interaction of individuals? Growing Artificial Societies approaches this question with cutting-edge computer simulation techniques. Fundamental collective behaviors such as group formation, cultural transmission, combat, and trade are seen to "emerge" from the interaction of individual agents following a few simple rules. In their program, named Sugarscape, Epstein and Axtell begin the development of a "bottom up" social science that is capturing the attention of researchers and commentators alike. The study is part of the 2050 Project, a joint venture of the Santa Fe Institute, the World Resources Institute, and the Brookings Institution. The project is an international effort to identify conditions for a sustainable global system in the next century and to design policies to help achieve such a system. Copublished with the Brookings Institution

"Roughly 30 percent of the solar radiation directed toward the earth is reflected directly back into outer space. The remaining 70 percent is absorbed by earth and re-emitted outward as long-wave—or infra-red—radiation. While transparent to incoming solar radiation, certain gases--notably carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane, and chlorofluorocarbons—absorb, or ""trap,"" this outgoing infra-red radiation near the earth's surface, producing an increase in temperature. This is the so-called greenhouse effect. The greater the concentration of these greenhouse gases, the more pronounced will be the effect. Despite uncertainties, the scientific consensus recorded at Villach, Austria, in 1985 was that ""the understanding of the greenhouse question is sufficiently developed that scientists and policy-makers should begin an active collaboration to explore the effectiveness of alternatives and adjustments."" The recent scientific assessment of climate change, conducted under the auspices of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, has only strengthened the view that a concerted multilateral response is called for."

Conventional forces absorb the preponderance of America's defense spending. Further, most experts believe the most likely path to nuclear war is through a failure of conventional defense. It is therefore critical that conventional military balances be assessed rigorously?by techniques that go beyond the familiar static comparison of opposing military inventories and explicitly represent warfare's dynamic factors. For decades, a single set of tools has dominated the dynamic analysis of conventional balances: the Lanchester equations, named for their inventor, Frederick William Lanchester. In this study, Joshua M. Epstein makes two separate contributions. He argues that Lanchester's equations fail to capture the basic dynamics of warfare and that they offer a fundamentally implausible picture of combat. He also presents new, alternative equations of his own. These, he contends, do capture warfare's essential dynamics, which Lanchester theory is incapable of representing. Epstein's methods are of immediate practical relevance in assessing the requirements of defense in the specific contingencies for which the United States and its allies must plan and in setting defense priorities accordingly.