Leonid Grinin

This book explores the global technological transformations that have shaped development of society for eons, from the emergence of Homo sapiens to the modern day. Looking at a potential future for all of this century and the beginning of the next, the book explores how society is changing as a result of the two most powerful trends: technological advances and global aging. It studies the forthcoming technological wave - the Cybernetic Revolution, which will encompass AI, medical technology and biotechnology, robotics, cognitive, nanotechnology etc. In turn, it shows why and how global aging will become one of the most powerful factors, influencing the evolution of society and the World System as a whole. Lastly, the book demonstrates how technological innovations can change the way people live and the society of the future, assessing both the new opportunities and threats posed by uncontrolled technological progress. Accordingly, it will appeal to social scientists, political scientists, economists and historians who are interested in technological transformations and their social and economic impacts.

This book explores the global technological transformations that have shaped development of society for eons, from the emergence of Homo sapiens to the modern day. Looking at a potential future for all of this century and the beginning of the next, the book explores how society is changing as a result of the two most powerful trends: technological advances and global aging. It studies the forthcoming technological wave – the Cybernetic Revolution, which will encompass AI, medical technology and biotechnology, robotics, cognitive, nanotechnology etc. In turn, it shows why and how global aging will become one of the most powerful factors, influencing the evolution of society and the World System as a whole. Lastly, the book demonstrates how technological innovations can change the way people live and the society of the future, assessing both the new opportunities and threats posed by uncontrolled technological progress. Accordingly, it will appeal to social scientists, political scientists, economists and historians who are interested in technological transformations and their social and economic impacts.

La monographie est consacr e aux probl mes des origines, du d veloppement et de l' tat actuel de l' tat. Elle fournit galement des pr visions sur l' volution politique dans les prochaines d cennies. L'ouvrage pr sente une nouvelle approche des causes et des mod les de l' mergence de l' tat et des formes politiques qui lui font concurrence (analogues des premiers tats) ainsi que de nouveaux mod les d' volution de l' tat. Aujourd'hui, les processus de changement de la nature et des fonctions de l' tat et d'int gration des pays dans des communaut s supranationales battent leur plein. Le dernier chapitre explique les raisons de ce ph nom ne inexplicable premi re vue: pourquoi les tats modernes r duisent volontairement leurs pr rogatives souveraines. Sans analyse de la gen se et du d veloppement de l' tat, il est impossible de comprendre le cours de l'histoire humaine et l' tat actuel du syst me mondial ainsi que les directions possibles de sa transformation. Nous esp rons donc que ce livre int ressera un large public, notamment les sp cialistes des tudes sur la mondialisation, de l'anthropologie politique, de la philosophie, des tudes sur l'avenir, de la sociologie historique et des tudes politiques, ainsi que toute personne int ress e par l'histoire et les probl mes politiques modernes et les tendances mondiales.

Monografia ta jest poświęcona problemom pochodzenia, rozwoju i aktualnego stanu państwowości. Przedstawiono w niej r wnież prognozy rozwoju politycznego na najbliższe dziesięciolecia. Książka przedstawia nowe podejście do przyczyn i modeli powstawania państwa i konkurowania z nim form politycznych (wczesne analogi państwowe) oraz nowe modele ewolucji państwa. Dziś w pelnym rozkwicie zachodzą procesy zmiany charakteru i funkcji państwa oraz jego integracji ze spolecznościami ponadnarodowymi. W ostatnim rozdziale wyjaśniono przyczyny niewytlumaczalnego, na pierwszy rzut oka, zjawiska: dlaczego nowoczesne państwa dobrowolnie ograniczają swoje suwerenne prerogatywy. Bez analizy genezy i rozwoju państwowości nie jest możliwe zrozumienie biegu historii ludzkości i stanu obecnego Systemu Światowego oraz możliwych kierunk w jego transformacji. Mamy więc nadzieję, że książka zainteresuje szeroką publicznośc, w tym specjalist w od badań nad globalizacją, antropologii politycznej, filozofii, studi w nad przyszlością, socjologii historycznej i politologii, a także wszystkich zainteresowanych historią i wsp lczesnymi problemami politycznymi oraz trendami globalnymi.

A monografia dedicada aos problemas das origens, desenvolvimento e estado actual do estado. Fornece tamb m previs es do desenvolvimento pol tico nas pr ximas d cadas. O livro apresenta uma nova abordagem das causas e modelos da emerg ncia do estado e da competi o com as suas formas pol ticas (an logos do estado inicial) e novos modelos de evolu o do estado. Hoje em pleno andamento est o os processos de mudan a da natureza e das fun es do Estado e a integra o dos pa ses em comunidades supranacionais. No ltimo cap tulo s o explicadas as raz es do inexplic vel, primeira vista, fen meno: por que raz o os estados modernos reduzem voluntariamente as suas prerrogativas soberanas. Sem uma an lise da g nese e desenvolvimento do Estado, imposs vel compreender o curso da hist ria humana e o estado actual do Sistema Mundial, assim como as poss veis direc es da sua transforma o. Assim, esperamos que o livro interesse um vasto p blico, incluindo especialistas em estudos de globaliza o, antropologia pol tica, filosofia, estudos futuros, sociologia hist rica, e estudos pol ticos, bem como qualquer pessoa interessada na hist ria e nos problemas pol ticos modernos e tend ncias globais.

Die Monographie widmet sich den Problemen der Entstehung, Entwicklung und des gegenw rtigen Zustands von Staatlichkeit. Sie liefert auch Prognosen zur politischen Entwicklung in den kommenden Jahrzehnten. Das Buch pr sentiert einen neuen Ansatz zu den Ursachen und Modellen der Entstehung von Staat und der mit ihm konkurrierenden politischen Formen (fr he Staatsanalogien) sowie neue Modelle der Staatsentwicklung. Heute sind die Prozesse des Wandels von Staatsnatur und Staatsfunktionen und die Integration von L ndern in supranationale Gemeinschaften in vollem Gange. Im letzten Kapitel werden die Gr nde f r das auf den ersten Blick unerkl rliche Ph nomen erl utert: warum moderne Staaten freiwillig ihre souver nen Vorrechte reduzieren. Ohne eine Analyse der Entstehung und Entwicklung von Staatlichkeit ist es unm glich, den Verlauf der Menschheitsgeschichte und den gegenw rtigen Zustand des Weltsystems sowie die m glichen Richtungen seiner Transformation zu verstehen. Daher hoffen wir, dass das Buch ein breites Publikum interessieren wird, darunter Fachleute aus den Bereichen Globalisierungsforschung, politische Anthropologie, Philosophie, Zukunftsforschung, historische Soziologie und politische Studien sowie alle, die sich f r Geschichte und moderne politische Probleme und globale Trends interessieren.

La monografia dedicata ai problemi delle origini, dello sviluppo e della condizione attuale dello stato. Fornisce anche previsioni sullo sviluppo politico nei prossimi decenni. Il libro presenta un nuovo approccio alle cause e ai modelli dell'emergere dello stato e della sua competizione con le forme politiche (analoghi dei primi stati) e i nuovi modelli di evoluzione dello stato. Oggi sono in pieno svolgimento i processi di cambiamento della natura e delle funzioni dello Stato e l'integrazione degli Stati nelle comunit sovranazionali. Nell'ultimo capitolo sono spiegate le ragioni dell'inspiegabile, a prima vista, fenomeno: perch gli Stati moderni riducono volontariamente le loro prerogative sovrane. Senza un'analisi della genesi e dello sviluppo dello Stato, impossibile comprendere il corso della storia umana e lo stato attuale del sistema mondiale, nonch le possibili direzioni della sua trasformazione. Quindi speriamo che il libro possa interessare un vasto pubblico, compresi gli specialisti in studi sulla globalizzazione, antropologia politica, filosofia, studi sul futuro, sociologia storica e studi politici, cos come chiunque sia interessato alla storia e ai problemi politici moderni e alle tendenze globali.

This book presents the history of globalization as a network-based story in the context of Big History. Departing from the traditional historic discourse, in which communities, cities, and states serve as the main units of analysis, the authors instead trace the historical emergence, growth, interconnection, and merging of various types of networks that have gradually encompassed the globe. They also focus on the development of certain ideas, processes, institutions, and phenomena that spread through those networks to become truly global. The book specifies five macro-periods in the history of globalization and comprehensively covers the first four, from roughly the 9th – 7th millennia BC to World War I. For each period, it identifies the most important network-related developments that facilitated (or even spurred on) such transitions and had the greatest impacts on the history of globalization. By analyzing the world system's transition to new levels of complexityand connectivity, the book provides valuable insights into the course of Big History and the evolution of human societies.

This book provides an in-depth analysis of public opinion patterns among Muslims, particularly in the Arab world. On the basis of data from the World Values Survey, the Arab Barometer Project and the Arab Opinion Index, it compares the dynamics of Muslim opinion structures with global publics and arrives at social scientific predictions of value changes in the region. Using country factor scores from a variety of surveys, it also develops composite indices of support for democracy and a liberal society on a global level and in the Muslim world, and analyzes a multivariate model of opinion structures in the Arab world, based on over 40 variables from 12 countries in the Arab League and covering 67% of the total population of the Arab countries. While being optimistic about the general, long-term trend towards democracy and the resilience of Arab and Muslim civil society to Islamism, the book also highlights anti-Semitic trends in the region and discusses them in the larger context of xenophobia in traditional societies. In light of the current global confrontation with radical Islamism, this book provides vital material for policy planners, academics and think tanks alike.

This book provides an in-depth analysis of public opinion patterns among Muslims, particularly in the Arab world. On the basis of data from the World Values Survey, the Arab Barometer Project and the Arab Opinion Index, it compares the dynamics of Muslim opinion structures with global publics and arrives at social scientific predictions of value changes in the region. Using country factor scores from a variety of surveys, it also develops composite indices of support for democracy and a liberal society on a global level and in the Muslim world, and analyzes a multivariate model of opinion structures in the Arab world, based on over 40 variables from 12 countries in the Arab League and covering 67% of the total population of the Arab countries. While being optimistic about the general, long-term trend towards democracy and the resilience of Arab and Muslim civil society to Islamism, the book also highlights anti-Semitic trends in the region and discusses them in the larger context of xenophobia in traditional societies. In light of the current global confrontation with radical Islamism, this book provides vital material for policy planners, academics and think tanks alike.

This thought-provoking monograph analyzes long- medium- and short-term global cycles of prosperity, recession, and depression, plotting them against centuries of important world events. Major research on economic and political cycles is integrated to clarify evolving relationships between the global center and its periphery as well as current worldwide economic upheavals and potential future developments. Central to this survey are successive waves of industrial and, later, technological and cybernetic progress, leading to the current era of globalization and the changes of the roles of both Western powers and former minors players, however that will lead to the formation of the world order without a hegemon. Additionally, the authors predict what they term the Great Convergence, the lessening of inequities between the global core and the rest of the world, including the wealth gap between First and Third World nations. Among the topics in this ambitious volume: · Why politics is often omitted from economic analysis.· Why economic cycles are crucial to understanding the modern geopolitical landscape. · How the aging of the developed world will affect world technological and economic future.· The evolving technological forecast for Global North and South. · Where the U. S. is likely to stand on the future world stage. Economic Cycles, Crises, and the Global Periphery will inspire discussion and debate among sociologists, global economists, demographers, global historians, and futurologists. This expert knowledge is necessary for further research, proactive response, and preparedness for a new age of sociopolitical change.

This thought-provoking monograph analyzes long- medium- and short-term global cycles of prosperity, recession, and depression, plotting them against centuries of important world events. Major research on economic and political cycles is integrated to clarify evolving relationships between the global center and its periphery as well as current worldwide economic upheavals and potential future developments. Central to this survey are successive waves of industrial and, later, technological and cybernetic progress, leading to the current era of globalization and the changes of the roles of both Western powers and former minors players, however that will lead to the formation of the world order without a hegemon. Additionally, the authors predict what they term the Great Convergence, the lessening of inequities between the global core and the rest of the world, including the wealth gap between First and Third World nations. Among the topics in this ambitious volume: · Why politics is often omitted from economic analysis.· Why economic cycles are crucial to understanding the modern geopolitical landscape. · How the aging of the developed world will affect world technological and economic future.· The evolving technological forecast for Global North and South. · Where the U. S. is likely to stand on the future world stage. Economic Cycles, Crises, and the Global Periphery will inspire discussion and debate among sociologists, global economists, demographers, global historians, and futurologists. This expert knowledge is necessary for further research, proactive response, and preparedness for a new age of sociopolitical change.

This new monograph provides a stimulating new take on hotly contested topics in world modernization and the globalizing economy. It begins by situating what is called the Great Divergence--the social/technological revolution that led European nations to outpace the early dominance of Asia--in historical context over centuries. This is contrasted with an equally powerful Great Convergence, the recent economic and technological expansion taking place in Third World nations and characterized by narrowing inequity among nations. They are seen here as two phases of an inevitable global process, centuries in the making, with the potential for both positive and negative results. This sophisticated presentation examines:Why the developing world is growing more rapidly than the developed world. How this development began occurring under the Western world's radar. How former colonies of major powers grew to drive the world's economy. Why so many Westerneconomists have been slow to recognize the Great Convergence. The increasing risk of geopolitical instability. Why the world is likely to find itself without an absolute leader after the end of the American hegemonyA work of rare scope, Great Divergence and Great Convergence gives sociologists, global economists, demographers, and global historians a deeper understanding of the broader movement of social and economic history, combined with a long view of history as it is currently being made; it also offers some thrilling forecasts for global development in the forthcoming decades.

This new monograph provides a stimulating new take on hotly contested topics in world modernization and the globalizing economy. It begins by situating what is called the Great Divergence--the social/technological revolution that led European nations to outpace the early dominance of Asia--in historical context over centuries. This is contrasted with an equally powerful Great Convergence, the recent economic and technological expansion taking place in Third World nations and characterized by narrowing inequity among nations. They are seen here as two phases of an inevitable global process, centuries in the making, with the potential for both positive and negative results. This sophisticated presentation examines:Why the developing world is growing more rapidly than the developed world. How this development began occurring under the Western world's radar. How former colonies of major powers grew to drive the world's economy. Why so many Westerneconomists have been slow to recognize the Great Convergence. The increasing risk of geopolitical instability. Why the world is likely to find itself without an absolute leader after the end of the American hegemonyA work of rare scope, Great Divergence and Great Convergence gives sociologists, global economists, demographers, and global historians a deeper understanding of the broader movement of social and economic history, combined with a long view of history as it is currently being made; it also offers some thrilling forecasts for global development in the forthcoming decades.