Mark R. Cozad

China's approach to nuclear deterrence has been broadly consistent since its first test in 1964, but it has recently accelerated nuclear force modernization. China's strategic environment is likely to grow more complex, and nuclear constituencies are gaining a larger bureaucratic voice. Beijing is unlikely to change official nuclear policies but will probably increase emphasis on nuclear deterrence and may adjust the definition of key concepts.

Russia's military has embarked on an extensive modernization program, raising concerns about the Intelligence Community's (IC's) ability to warn of future Russian aggression, particularly on NATO's eastern flank. This study examines six Soviet and Russian events that occurred in the past 50 years to highlight themes in Russian operational practices and challenges to IC warning efforts. It concludes with recommendations for improving warning.

The report assesses notable developments in and implications of China's emerging power-projection capabilities, focusing particularly on the People's Liberation Army Air Force's operations over water. The Chinese air force began developing a maritime mission in recent years, as well as capabilities and training toward this goal, and this has implications for the United States and its allies and partners in the region.

This volume contains revised versions of three presentations on Chinese aerospace training and operational competence issues from a June 2015 China Aerospace Studies Institute (CASI) conference. Presentations concentrate on People s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) leadership; training for PLAAF joint operations; and developments in PLAAF facility logistics and maintenance."