Michael J. Mauboussin

Most investment books try to assess the attractiveness of a stock price by estimating the value of the company. Expectations Investing provides a powerful and insightful alternative to identifying gaps between price and value. Michael J. Mauboussin and Alfred Rappaport suggest that an investor start with a known quantity, the stock price, and ask what it implies for future financial results. After showing how to read expectations, Mauboussin and Rappaport provide a guide to rigorous strategic and financial analysis to help investors assess the likelihood of revisions to these expectations. Their framework traces value creation from the triggers that shape a company’s performance to the impact on the value drivers. This allows a practitioner of expectations investing to determine whether a stock is an attractive buy or sell candidate. Investors who read this book will be able to evaluate stocks of companies in any sector or geography more effectively than those who use the standard approaches of most investors. Managers can use the book’s principles to devise, adjust, and communicate their company’s strategy in light of shareholder expectations. This revised and updated edition reflects the many changes in accounting and the business landscape since the book was first published and provides a wealth of new examples and case studies.

Uncover insider knowledge and lessons on how to achieve success in the stock market in this must-read manual for investors.

What separates the good investors from the great ones? In The Investing Mind, Michael J. Mauboussin, a renowned teacher, strategist, and speaker, draws on over forty years of experience to answer this question. From the 1987 market crash to the dot-com bubble and the global financial crisis, Mauboussin has navigated the ever-evolving landscape of investment both as a Wall Street analyst and a professor at Columbia Business School. Despite dramatic changes in markets, he argues that the principles and processes required for success in investing remain remarkably consistent over time. Blending personal experiences, market history, and analytical insight, Mauboussin reveals the ten essential qualities that distinguish exceptional investors. The book explores: - When to embrace technology - and when to trust human judgment - How cognitive biases can sabotage decision-making - and how to identify and avoid them - Why reading broadly is the key to success and methods to maximize its benefits But more than simply providing a compilation of advice, Mauboussin leverages decades of research and one-on-one conversations with luminaries at institutions ranging from Stanford and MIT to the Santa Fe Institute and from Harvard to the great universities of Europe and the world. Armed with this deep learning, he delves into the recesses of the mind to uncover ways of thinking, learning, and maintaining a razor-sharp intelligence that can build a lifelong foundation for ongoing success in all pursuits. The Investing Mind is not about chasing market trends or quick wins. It's about building the judgment, discipline, and qualities to achieve lasting success in an ever-evolving world. Whether you're a professional investor, an aspiring analyst, or a curious thinker, this book offers a road map to learn and adopt the winning habits behind the success of the world's greatest investors.

High Performing Investment Teams "Although most leaders agree teamwork is important, few businesses effectively build collaborative, synchronized teams. High Performing Investment Teams is an excellent guidepost for any manager striving to create a winning team and develop bench strength for the future." —John W. Rogers Jr., Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Ariel Capital Management, LLC "Turning individual talent into team performance is the ultimate challenge for an investment organization, but also the key to building a sustainable investment franchise. Focus Consulting has captured the essence of how to leverage your intellectual capital for maximum and enduring success." —Michelle R. Seitz, CFA, Principal, Head of Investment Management, Executive Committee Member, William Blair & Company, LLC "Focus Consulting's work on behaviors of top teams is clear, effective, and practical. We recommend it highly for investment firms that are serious about world-class collaboration." —Terry Toth, President, Northern Trust Global Investments "Focus Consulting really understands that attracting and motivating talented people makes all the difference for asset managers. Their work is based on years of experience helping investment firms build strong cultures with productive behaviors." —Scott Powers, Chief Executive Officer, Old Mutual Asset Management "Focus Consulting understands the people aspect of the investment business. They know the investment business and how to make collaboration work." —Harin de Silva, PhD, CFA, President, Analytic Investors

Since its first publication, Michael J. Mauboussin's popular guide to wise investing has been translated into eight languages and has been named best business book by BusinessWeek and best economics book by Strategy+Business. Now updated to reflect current research and expanded to include new chapters on investment philosophy, psychology, and strategy and science as they pertain to money management, this volume is more than ever the best chance to know more than the average investor. Offering invaluable tools to better understand the concepts of choice and risk, More Than You Know is a unique blend of practical advice and sound theory, sampling from a wide variety of sources and disciplines. Mauboussin builds on the ideas of visionaries, including Warren Buffett and E. O. Wilson, but also finds wisdom in a broad and deep range of fields, such as casino gambling, horse racing, psychology, and evolutionary biology. He analyzes the strategies of poker experts David Sklansky and Puggy Pearson and pinpoints parallels between mate selection in guppies and stock market booms. For this edition, Mauboussin includes fresh thoughts on human cognition, management assessment, game theory, the role of intuition, and the mechanisms driving the market's mood swings, and explains what these topics tell us about smart investing. More Than You Know is written with the professional investor in mind but extends far beyond the world of economics and finance. Mauboussin groups his essays into four parts-Investment Philosophy, Psychology of Investing, Innovation and Competitive Strategy, and Science and Complexity Theory-and he includes substantial references for further reading. A true eye-opener, More Than You Know shows how a multidisciplinary approach that pays close attention to process and the psychology of decision making offers the best chance for long-term financial results.

No matter your field, industry, or specialty, as a leader you make a series of crucial decisions every single day. And the harsh truth is that the majority of decisions-no matter how good the intentions behind them-are mismanaged, resulting in a huge toll on organizations, the people they employ, and even the people they serve. So why is it so hard to make sound decisions? In Think Twice, now in paperback, Michael Mauboussin argues that we often fall victim to simplified mental routines that prevent us from coping with the complex realities inherent in important judgment calls. Yet these cognitive errors are preventable. In this engaging book, Mauboussin shows us how to recognize and avoid common mental missteps. These include misunderstanding cause-and-effect linkages, not considering enough alternative possibilities in making a decision, and relying too much on experts. Through vivid stories, the author presents memorable rules for avoiding each error and explains how to recognize when you should "think twice"-questioning your reasoning and adopting decision-making strategies that are far more effective, even if they seem counterintuitive. Armed with this awareness, you'll soon begin making sounder judgment calls that benefit (rather than hurt) your organization.

"Much of what we experience in life results from a combination of skill and luck." -- From the Introduction The trick, of course, is figuring out just how many of our successes (and failures) can be attributed to each--and how we can learn to tell the difference ahead of time. In most domains of life, skill and luck seem hopelessly entangled. Different levels of skill and varying degrees of good and bad luck are the realities that shape our lives--yet few of us are adept at accurately distinguishing between the two. Imagine what we could accomplish if we were able to tease out these two threads, examine them, and use the resulting knowledge to make better decisions. In this provocative book, Michael Mauboussin helps to untangle these intricate strands to offer the structure needed to analyze the relative importance of skill and luck. He offers concrete suggestions for making these insights work to your advantage. Once we understand the extent to which skill and luck contribute to our achievements, we can learn to deal with them in making decisions. The Success Equation helps us move toward this goal by: * Establishing a foundation so we better understand skill and luck, and can pinpoint where each is most relevant * Helping us develop the analytical tools necessary to understand skill and luck * Offering concrete suggestions about how to take these findings and put them to work Showcasing Mauboussin's trademark wit, insight, and analytical genius, The Success Equation is a must-read for anyone seeking to make better decisions--in business and in life.

High Performing Investment Teams "Although most leaders agree teamwork is important, few businesses effectively build collaborative, synchronized teams. High Performing Investment Teams is an excellent guidepost for any manager striving to create a winning team and develop bench strength for the future." —John W. Rogers Jr., Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Ariel Capital Management, LLC "Turning individual talent into team performance is the ultimate challenge for an investment organization, but also the key to building a sustainable investment franchise. Focus Consulting has captured the essence of how to leverage your intellectual capital for maximum and enduring success." —Michelle R. Seitz, CFA, Principal, Head of Investment Management, Executive Committee Member, William Blair & Company, LLC "Focus Consulting's work on behaviors of top teams is clear, effective, and practical. We recommend it highly for investment firms that are serious about world-class collaboration." —Terry Toth, President, Northern Trust Global Investments "Focus Consulting really understands that attracting and motivating talented people makes all the difference for asset managers. Their work is based on years of experience helping investment firms build strong cultures with productive behaviors." —Scott Powers, Chief Executive Officer, Old Mutual Asset Management "Focus Consulting understands the people aspect of the investment business. They know the investment business and how to make collaboration work." —Harin de Silva, PhD, CFA, President, Analytic Investors

Expectations Investing offers a unique and powerful alternative for identifying value-price gaps. Rappaport and Mauboussin provide everything the reader needs to utilize the discounted cash flow model successfully. And they add an important twist: they suggest that rather than forecasting cash flows, investors should begin by estimating the expectations embedded in a company's stock price. An investor who has a fix on the market's expectations can then assess the likelihood of expectations revisions. To help investors anticipate such revisions, Rappaport and Mauboussin introduce an "expectations infrastructure" framework for tracing the process of value creation from the basic economic forces that shape a company's performance to the resulting impact on sales, costs, and investment. Investors who use Expectations Investing will have a fundamentally new way to evaluate all stocks, setting them on the path to success. Managers will be able to use the book to devise, adjust, and communicate their company's strategy in light of shareholder expectations.