Michael T Wilson

This report examines climate adaptation strategies for 25 National Critical Functions (NCFs) at risk of disruption from climate change. The focus is on impact pathways, each of which is a combination of climate drivers (such as drought and flooding) and impact mechanisms (such as physical damage and workforce shortages) affecting a given NCF. The emphasis is on strategies that owner-operators of critical functions might implement.

This report summarizes the findings of research on U. S. and other armed forces' capabilities in the Arctic, the extent to which non-U. S. entities are operating where U. S. forces cannot, and how those operations might affect U. S. national interests. The authors found that the United States is lacking in capacity and, to a lesser extent, capability and that this creates risk for U. S. security.

A loss of available water supply is one of the catastrophic risks of climate change that decisionmakers must confront. Cities around the world have already faced severe threats to their water supplies. In this report, the authors examine the experiences of five cities with severe or catastrophic water supply risks to identify steps that could be taken ahead of time to mitigate those risks and build urban water security.

Climate-driven natural hazards will continue to affect Department of the Air Force (DAF) installations and missions for the foreseeable future. There is a need for the DAF to consider how installation infrastructure projects that improve hazard resilience may be prioritized. A new approach allows comparison of infrastructure projects based on their ability to improve installation resilience to climate-related hazards.

he authors of this report consider the exposure of Department of the Air Force (DAF) installations to flooding, high winds, and wildfires?hazards that have affected DAF installations in the recent past. The authors characterize exposure using three different types of data: base boundaries, geospatial data on airfield and select electric power infrastructure that supports DAF installations, and publicly available data on natural hazards.

Urban stormwater management is a growing challenge in many U. S. cities, and climate change is expected to add to this challenge. RAND researchers apply simulation modeling and economic valuation to estimate the potential benefits and costs of a green stormwater infrastructure (GSI) system in Pittsburgh's Negley Run watershed. The authors evaluate a series of GSI investments and make recommendations for how local actors should proceed.

The U. S. Coast Guard's motto is Semper Paratus--always ready. But for what? This report describes an approach to developing scenarios to aid in decisionmaking under deep uncertainty through the Evergreen strategic foresight initiative. The scenarios presented here focus on readiness, but the approach can be adapted for other contexts.

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This report provides an independent study of how the stormwater problem in the Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania metropolitan region could grow with future climate, land use, or population change, and discusses potential long-term solutions using new analytical approaches developed by RAND. The analysis provides a baseline of scientific information intended to support ongoing regional coordination around stormwater management and water-quality planning.