Murray Hiebert

China’s rise and stepped-up involvement in Southeast Asia have prompted a blend of anticipation and unease among its smaller neighbors. The stunning growth of China has yanked up the region’s economies, but its militarization of the South China Sea and dam building on the Mekong River has nations wary about Beijing’s outsized ambitions. Southeast Asians long felt relatively secure, relying on the United States as a security hedge, but that confidence began to slip after the Trump administration launched a trade war with China and questioned the usefulness of traditional alliances. This compelling book provides a snapshot of ten countries in Southeast Asia by exploring their diverse experiences with China and how this impacts their perceptions of Beijing’s actions and its long-term political, economic, military, and “soft power” goals in the region.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) hosted its fifth annual South China Sea conference in July 2015. This compilation features papers from some of the top experts in the United States and Asia, who presented during the day’s panels. Bill Hayton, Bonnie Glaser, and Wu Shicun discuss recent developments in the South China Sea; Pham Lan Dung and Tran Huu Duy Minh explore legal issues surrounding the disputes; and Ian Storey, Patrick Cronin, Renato Cruz de Castro, and Peter Jennings examine various aspects of the military balance and regional order.

With elections in both the Philippines and the United States in 2016, the future of the alliance must be institutionalized to ensure that it is not diminished by a change of leadership in either country. A new Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement and cooperation in the South China Sea are important components of the new era of relations, but they are not and should not be the only defining features of the alliance. Given the long history of U. S.-Philippine relations, the alliance must be based on more robust cooperation across the spectrum of political, security, economic, and sociocultural relations. Security concerns provide an acute impetus for leaders to put more energy into the relationship, but its sustainability will require a more comprehensive focus.

Building on a careful analysis of Southeast Asia’s recent history, politics, economics, and place within the Asia Pacific, this report looks forward two decades to anticipate the development of trends in the region and how they will impact the U. S.-Japan alliance. How will Southeast Asian states come to grips with the political and economic rise of China? How will they modernize their military forces and security relationships, and what role can the United States and Japan play? How will they manage their disputes in the South China Sea, and how will they pursue greater regional integration? These questions will prove critical in understanding Southeast Asia’s role in the Asia Pacific, and in the U. S.-Japan alliance, in the decades ahead.

A New Era of U. S.-Vietnam Relations examines the history of the relationship and offers concrete recommendations for policymakers in both countries to deepen cooperation across each major area of the relationship: political and security ties, trade and economic linkages, and people-to-people connections.

A U. S.-Indonesia Partnership for 2020 explores avenues to boost cooperation in all three of these pillars. Political and security relations between the United States and Indonesia have grown more robust in recent years. Trade and economic relations, while growing, remain contentious. This study assesses progress on these two pillars, along with the under-resourced field of people-to-people collaboration, and offers recommendations to take the partnership to the next level in each area.

Potential sales of billions of dollars of energy equipment produced by U. S. companies are at stake in the major economies of the region. They are expected to import as much as $16 billion worth of energy products over the next few years to power their economic growth. But unless the United States launches new initiatives to snare sizable shares of this investment, U. S. companies are unlikely to be major players in all this trade.

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