Olivier Ecker

This book takes both a global as well as a local perspective in assessing the impacts of climate change on the economy, agricultural sector, and households in three of the MENA countries; Syria, Tunisia and Yemen. The major channels of impact for global climate change are through changing world food (and energy) prices, especially since all the countries under analysis are or have become net importers of oil and petroleum products and many food commodities in recent years. The impacts of local climate change decrease crop yields in the longer run and through them, productivity in the agricultural sector and all the implications this may have on both, the livelihoods of those dependent on the sector as well as the rest of the economy. The analysis also covered what happens when both global and local climate changes work simultaneously for each country. Findings show that in all three countries the effects of climate change are negative for people and the economy—GDP falls and livelihoods suffer. Furthermore, the prevalence of extreme variations in climate—such as the droughts affecting Syria and the floods impacting Yemen—draws attention to the potentially significant drawbacks that are likely to not only affect any strides towards economic growth and development, but may also reverse such strides if appropriate policies are not in place to weather this storm. The analyses in this book apply CGE models.

Micronutrient malnutrition is a serious public health problem, especially in developing countries. Hence, evaluating the nutritional impacts of market and policy changes requires more than just a calorie focus. This work extends the traditional perspective and analyzes the effects of income, food price, and sociodemographic developments on vitamin and mineral adequacies at the household level. The author proposes two approaches to estimate income and price elasticities of nutrient consumption and presents a procedure for assessing the nutrition situation in populations based on food consumption data. Using both approaches demand models are applied in two empirical studies with data from rural East Africa and Malawi. Results suggest that the nutritional status is highly income-responsive. Price elasticities are lower in absolute values, albeit with notable differences between nutrients. Policy implications are discussed.