Richard J. Krickus

As the United States reassesses relations with Russia and develops doctrine that addresses a turbulent security environment, Dr. Richard J. Krickus addresses a brace of pivotal questions that have a bearing on the future of Vladimir Putin and his Power Vertical. Are Putin's days numbered as many Russian watchers predict and what will Russia look like after he leaves the Kremlin? Toward this end, Krickus assesses four plausible scenarios. They include first, Status Quo, depicting the major geo-political features of Russia today; second, Stalin Lite that embraces most of the characteristics of a police state; third, The Western Path to Development that reflects pluralistic phenomenon associated with a "normal" European country; and fourth, Russia in Chaos, an outcome that anticipates the virtual disintegration of Russia as we know it today.

There has been widespread discussion of Russia's efforts to exploit its energy assets to influence developments in Ukraine; specifically, to put pressure on the leaders of the Orange Revolution who have adopted a Western orientation, rather than one toward the East- Russia. Less attention has been devoted to similar efforts undertaken by Russia to advance Moscow's security objectives in the East Baltic Sea Region (EBSR). Through what the author of this monograph, Dr. Richard Krickus, calls Iron Troikas, he demonstrates how the Russian leadership has exploited its energy assets to advance its security interests in the vital EBSR-with emphasis on Poland and the Baltic countries. This triad of power is comprised of former members of the military and security service-the siloviki; economic warlords, members of organized crime, and rogue military personnel; and "local elites" in Poland and the Baltic countries who have advanced Russia's security interests in the region.