Stephen Watts

In this report, RAND researchers analyze options to improve the sustainability of security sector assistance (SSA) in the U. S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) area of responsibility, deriving insights from the development community. They recommend changes to overall SSA structures and specific practices to enhance the sustainability of partner capacity gains.

The United States has sought to combat security threats in Africa principally by supporting partner governments, and security sector assistance (SSA) has been one of the primary tools it has used. A RAND Corporation study used statistical models to evaluate the impact that U. S.-provided SSA has had on political violence in Africa--in particular, the incidence of civil wars and insurgencies, terrorist attacks, and state repression.

This report analyzes trends in violent conflict and their implications for defense planning. It presents models that estimate the incidence of violent conflict both within and between countries and projects conflict trends to 2040 under different scenarios. The report concludes that conflict is likely to gradually decline in most regions in most plausible futures, while highlighting early warning indicators of potential increases in conflict.

Heightened tensions between Russia and NATO since 2014 have prompted the Alliance to take a fresh look at NATO's ability to deter potential Russian aggression. In this report, RAND researchers develop a framework that analysts can use to assess likely Russian reactions to ongoing and proposed NATO posture enhancements in Europe, which can help policymakers determine the utility and advisability of different options.

This report describes counterinsurgency strategies and practices and conditions in which U. S. small-footprint partnerships may succeed. Successful U. S. operations have been concentrated in favorable conditions, but most insurgencies occur in worst-case conditions. Case studies of the Philippines and Pakistan reinforce findings of the analysis and highlight challenges for the U. S. in trying to influence partners. Recommendations are offered for managing troubled partnerships."