Strategic Studies Institute (SSI)

The papers included here, except for the editor's introduction, all come from the Strategic Studies Institute's annual conference on Russia in May 2012. In one way or another, they all point to the internal pathologies that render Russian security a precarious affair, at the best of times. As the editor suggests, the very fact of this precariousness makes Russia an inherently unpredictable and even potentially dangerous actor, not necessarily because it will actively attack its neighbors, though we certainly cannot exclude that possibility, but rather because it may come apart trying to play the role of a great power in Eurasia or elsewhere. As we all know, that outcome happened in 1917 and in 1989-91, with profound implications for international security and U. S. interests.

For the U. S. Armed Forces, and militaries throughout the world, non-traditional missions have become an increasingly important part of the range of operations that they are called on to conduct. In the Western Hemisphere, one of the most prominent examples has been the involvement of Central American armed forces in the fight against transnational organized crime groups and violent street gangs such as Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13) and Barrio 18 (B-18). The longterm propriety of employing the military in what is, at its core, a law enforcement role, continues to be a subject of debate not only in Central America, but also throughout Latin America and the Caribbean, and elsewhere in the world. Nonetheless, in the face of the inadequacy of law enforcement institutions to meet the challenge, because of its magnitude, lack of resources, corruption, and other shortcomings in law enforcement institutions, elected leaders across the ideological spectrum in Honduras, as well as neighboring El Salvador and Nicaragua...

As India rises in the international system, its foreign and defense policies are attaining greater influence in shaping global security. This Letort Paper explores Indian nuclear policy approaches and views, and makes a major contribution to our understanding of this factor of growing significance in Asian security. India's nuclear arsenal development is generating new technical options for its nuclear strategy. India is developing intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM)-range Agni-V and Agni-VI ballistic missiles, and is claiming that these will be able to host multiple nuclear warheads. It is also building a new generation of short-range and potentially nuclear-capable ballistic missiles, and fielding an indigenous naval nuclear force. However, as these advancements interact with those of India's strategic rivals, China and Pakistan, they threaten to blur nuclear thresholds and elevate the risk of inadvertent nuclear escalation due to misperception.

The Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) was once focused on China's immediate periphery. The PLA Navy had no "blue water" naval capabilities and very limited combat logistics support. The Air Force could not fly long-distance missions overwater or operate effectively in conjunction with the Navy or naval air forces; nor could it coordinate joint, precision strikes with the missiles of the Second Artillery. Land forces, meanwhile, could move effectively within China by rail, and could operate on China's periphery, but were neither capable of nor equipped for long-distance force projection. Dr. Larry M. Wortzel's Letort Paper analyzes a body of literature that provides internal critiques of PLA capabilities. He starts with an analysis of the book Long-Distance Operations, by a strategist from the Academy of Military Science of the Chinese PLA, published in 2007.

Sponsored by the Army Capabilities Integration Center and in collaboration with the Joint Staff's Deputy Directorate for Global Operations (Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment Branch), this report examines the emergence of gray zone competition and conflict as important pacers for U. S. defense strategy. The authors argue that gray zone challenges are unique defense-relevant issues sharing three common characteristics-hybridity, menace to defense and military convention, and profound and paralyzing risk-confusion. This report and its authors offer an important opening venture into a vexing strategic question for senior defense and military leadership on the subject of gray zone threats. Namely, how can the American defense enterprise adjust to an era of relentless revisionist and rejectionist opposition to U. S. power? On the one hand, purposeful U. S. competitors pursue meaningful revision of the U. S.-led status quo through campaign-quality combinations of influence, intimidation, coercion, and aggression.

This monograph is an audit of the policies pursued by the Obama Administration in support of the so-called "pivot to Asia." After explaining why U. S. President Barack Obama chose to accord top priority to the Indo-Asia-Pacific (IAP) region, Dr. Douglas T. Stuart discusses the diplomatic, information, military, and economic instruments of power, which were available to Washington to accomplish its goals. Dr. Stuart notes that the United States faced some unique problems in its efforts to rely upon diplomacy, public information, and economics to gain influence in the region. Under these circumstances, Washington drew upon its substantial regional military presence as the foundation for its pivot campaign. Dr. Stuart discusses both the strengths and weaknesses of the so-called San Francisco network of U. S.-sponsored security relationships with key regional governments.

In the aftermath of the ousting of dictatorial regimes in 2011, the fragile political and security situations in Tunisia and Libya have contributed to the emergence of new threats that menace the stability of both countries and of their neighbors. Severe terrorist incidents have become frequent throughout the region. To name but one incident, the borders that Algeria shares with those two countries exposed it to a major terrorist attack on the Tiguentourine gas facility in January 2013. The existence and recognition of common threats has prompted military-to-military cooperation among most, but not all, North African countries. Algeria, a country with a sizable military capability, has started working closely with its neighbor countries to reduce terrorist threats. Over the last 3 years, Algeria and Tunisia in particular have intensified their military cooperation to tackle terrorist groups in Tunisia and fight against illicit trafficking across their respective borders.

For years, the Israel-Turkey partnership was believed to be an anchor of stability in the troubled Middle East. For the United States the two regional players were supposed to pave the way to a regional system, but the collapse of their bilateral relation over the last years has put an end to these expectations. As a result of this crisis between Ankara and Jerusalem, the competition in the East Mediterranean region evolved significantly. Whereas Turkey increased its inflammatory rhetoric against Israel, the latter counterbalanced Turkey's position by strengthening ties with two rivals of Ankara: Greece and Cyprus. As Jean-Loup Samaan explains in this Letort Paper, these power plays have major ramifications. The perilous zero-sum game which is taking place in the Mediterranean impacts bilateral relations between all the stakeholders, not only at the military but at the economic level as well. It also jeopardizes the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) policies in the region...

Several years ago, as the primary focus of U. S. military strategy shifted to the western Pacific region, many respected authorities began to question the relevance of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in modern world events. More recent events, such as the Russian Federation's annexation of Crimea, have given policy makers pause to question the wisdom of anticipated force cuts in Europe. Amidst this turmoil, the staffs of U. S. European Command and U. S. Army Europe have been establishing and refining their capabilities to conduct military operations in and through the cyberspace realm. If indeed the decision is made to pursue military action in cyberspace, what capabilities are available within NATO forces to accomplish such activities? What organization, doctrine, and methods would guide operators who perform such actions? In this monograph, Mr. Jeffrey Caton explores these questions within the broader context of the continued evolution of the NATO Alliance.

The Middle East and North Africa region has been one of the world's most unstable areas since World War II, and yet, the nations of the region have failed to develop any form of security architecture. The Arab Spring and its aftermath seemed to have opened a window of opportunity for certain Arab states to cooperate more-but how and to what extent remain to be seen. This Letort Paper explains why the region has struggled so far to establish cooperative security, and what obstacles need to be overcome on the way to a system akin to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Unless they are addressed, every new announcement of an alliance-be it of Arab, Islamic, Gulf, or other nature-will remain a pie in the sky. Just as the international community is yet again considering such an architecture-perhaps even including Iran-this idea and its implementation are more important than ever.

This report is the product of the U. S. Army War College's (USAWC) inaugural Integrated Research Project (IRP) on "U. S.-China Competition: Asia-Pacific Land Force Implications." It addresses a Chief of Staff, Army priority research topic and was sponsored by the U. S. Army Pacific and the Headquarters, Department of the Army, Directorate of Strategy and Policy (HQDA G-35). The report resulted from a whole-of-War-College effort. Core curriculum and regional elective studies augmented student research and facilitated analysis. The Center for Strategic Leadership hosted an implementation workshop to solicit subject matter expertise on recommendations and implementation plans. Faculty from across the USAWC supported the analytical debate, mentored student participants, and reviewed the written contributions. Additionally, the USAWC team engaged in extensive dialogue with senior military leaders, both in theater and at Carlisle Barracks, to explore issues and develop recommendations.

Although different U. S. Presidential administrations often face differing national security challenges, one element common to all American Presidents is the desire for policy options when it comes to managing those challenges. Options provide room for maneuver strategically, operationally, and politically. In this monograph, the U. S. Army War College's Dr. John R. Deni argues that some persistent biases and some more recent trends in defense strategy, planning, and budgeting are likely to have the effect of reducing the options available to current and future senior U. S. leaders.

There is no word or phrase more important and essential to the national security community than "strategy." In this monograph, Dr. Tami Davis Biddle argues that, while most of us have a sense of what the word means, we do not always fully appreciate all that it entails and all that it demands of us. Indeed, she argues that because strategy is so difficult on so many levels, we must not delude ourselves into believing that it can be practiced in any idealized form. But she insists that in situations where lives are at stake, we have a moral obligation to do all we can to meet the wide array of challenges we must face as we devise and implement strategies (and grand strategies) to achieve desired political ends. Dr. Biddle begins her monograph with a close examination of the terms "strategy" and "grand strategy." Relying on a wide body of literature by historians, political scientists, and practitioners, she examines the reasons why political actors adopt strategies and grand strategies...