Sylvester J. Schieber

For many of us, Social Security doesn't seem to be the good deal our parents enjoyed. Pensions from previous generations have either disappeared or been completely reengineered and, to make matters worse, we have just gone through the worst decade for investing since the Depression. As the 'Baby Boomer' generation reaches the age of 65, Americans are faced with the confounding problem of how to pay for a growing retired population with increasingly limited financial resources. Yet the historical evolution of these current dilemmas has been full of signs indicating that we would arrive ultimately at where we are now. In Predictable Surprise, Sylvester J. Schieber explains how retirement systems work and the implications for various generations of continuing our current course. He lays the background for the establishment of retirement programs in the United States, focusing on the beginning of employer-sponsored pensions and on Social Security. The motivations for setting up these programs decades ago still persist, despite current developments. Schieber explains how the original architecture of Social Security has changed in ways that have led to current concerns about financing and equity of the program. In contrast, he shows how Social Security has at the same time defied change to accommodate to social and economic circumstances that have evolved since its 1935 inception. Schieber discusses benefits that Social Security has delivered over time, how the system is changing before our eyes, and the costs that it has exacted from various segments of our society. Employing clear and concise language, Schieber's Predictable Surprise describes the nuances of the political economics of retirement in an approachable and applicable manner--just when we need it the most.

The world is getting older and no one knows exactly what life will be like in tomorrow's older societies. But we do know that age dependency ratios - the ratio of retirees to workers - will be much higher than we see today. The implications of this trend are plain. The combined effects of fewer workers, more retirees and longer retirement periods threaten not only the sustainability of pension systems but also the broader economic prospects of many developed countries. This book describes trends in birth rates, longevity and labor force participation and productivity, the cross-border flow of capital, the globalization of labor markets, the financial viability of social insurance programs, and the ways economic output is shared between working-age and retiree populations. Our most effective solution will likely be a multifaceted one: more workers, longer careers, higher productivity, and more global exchange and cooperation.

The world is getting older and no one knows exactly what life will be like in tomorrow's older societies. But we do know that age dependency ratios - the ratio of retirees to workers - will be much higher than we see today. The implications of this trend are plain. The combined effects of fewer workers, more retirees and longer retirement periods threaten not only the sustainability of pension systems but also the broader economic prospects of many developed countries. This book describes trends in birth rates, longevity and labor force participation and productivity, the cross-border flow of capital, the globalization of labor markets, the financial viability of social insurance programs, and the ways economic output is shared between working-age and retiree populations. Our most effective solution will likely be a multifaceted one: more workers, longer careers, higher productivity, and more global exchange and cooperation.

Will the Social Security system founder as millions of baby boomers enter their retirement years? Is the frightening vision of an impoverished old age a glimpse into the real future for Americans of the next generation? The authors of this book put debates about Social Security reform into historical perspective, consider various reform ideas, and elaborate a proposal to ensure that the system can continue to meet the claims of the retired and the disabled. Sylvester J. Schieber and John B. Shoven, leading experts on retirement issues, set forth a carefully considered plan to change the way we finance Social Security and thereby secure its future viability. Exploring the history of the Social Security system from its origins during the Depression to its current troubled prospects, Schieber and Shoven analyze the program’s economic structure and introduce the remarkable personalities who influenced its evolution. The authors show how Social Security today differs from the program Franklin D. Roosevelt envisioned and how the shift to pay-as-you-go funding has led to the system’s current problems. Seen in historical context, some reform approaches are revealed as a renewal of attempts to fund Social Security through means that have repeatedly failed. The authors argue for mandatory private retirement savings accounts for workers—a proposal that would lighten retirement security burdens for future generations, avoid tax increases, and preserve the system’s progressivity. This book is essential reading not only for policymakers but for anyone else who wishes to understand what Social Security reform will mean for us as a nation and as individuals.

This book describes the evolution of Social Security and the role of other income replacement programs such as pension plans and individual retirement accounts (IRAs) in meeting the elderly's income needs.