Uri Dadush

The global economic edifice built after World War II, was a source of unprecedented prosperity, and could not have functioned without open and predictable international trade and the peaceful international relations that are its foundation. The rules that enable trade are outdated and under attack. Social divisions and great power rivalry have eroded the political support for open trade. The consequence is fragmentation of world trade, its separation into blocks that advance domestic producers or most favored nations nearby. These blocs are themselves often pulled by competing agendas. The prospects are for vastly reduced economic efficiency and - most ominously - heightened geopolitical tensions. The questions about why this is happening, how economic fragmentation will evolve, and how to respond to it, are today uppermost in the minds of policymakers and businesses across the world. These are the questions that Uri Dadush seeks to answer in Geopolitics, Trade Blocks, and the Fragmentation of World Commerce. The world economy is already mired in profound trade uncertainty, which is likely to persist. Since it cannot be dispelled, the uncertainty must be better managed.

"A bedrock American principle is the idea that all individuals should have the opportunity to succeed on the basis of their own effort, skill, and ingenuity.—Federal Reserve Chairman Ben BernankeIncome inequality has been on the rise since the late 1970s, but the economic and financial crisis of 2008 instigated an unemployment epidemic that dramatically compounded this problem in the United States and catapulted the issue to the center of debate. There is wide agreement across the political spectrum that high inequality is contributing to undesirable circumstances such as stagnant household income, rising poverty rates, and increased borrowing and debt, though there is much less agreement on remedies. Inequality in America provides a snapshot of the issues posed by the growing concentrations of income, focusing on the United States but drawing on international comparisons to help set the context. The authors examine the economic, technological, and political drivers of inequality and identify worrying trends associated with its rise. They demonstrate how specific factors have exacerbated income inequality, including technological change, international trade, changes in labor market participation, and the increasing role of the financial sector. Their clear and concise exposition makes the issues surrounding income distribution accessible to a wider public. As they write in the conclusion: ""We have argued that tackling the worst effects of inequality and re-establishing a measure of equal opportunity requires increased investment in crucial public goods: first, education; second, a more progressive and simplified tax system; and third, increased international cooperation to avoid a race to the bottom. Education, tax, and other such policies are pursued by other highperforming advanced countries and can be shaped for the United States in a way that is fully consistent with an efficient and competitive American economy."""

Against the long sweep of economic history, the current moment is special. Living standards advanced so rapidly and across so many countries over the last decade that it is difficult to think of parallels —even the deepest recession since the Great Depression did not halt progress. In Juggernaut , Uri Dadush and William Shaw explore the rise of developing countries and how they will reshape the economic landscape. Dadush and Shaw project that the global economy will more than triple over the next forty years and the advance of a large group of developing countries —home to most of the world's population but seen as supplicants rather than trendsetters less than a generation ago —will drive this improvement. The authors systematically examine the effects of this seismic shift on the main avenues of globalization —trade, finance, migration, and the global commons —and identify the policy options available to leaders in managing the transformation. In the years to come, the rise of emerging economies will likely enhance prosperity but also create great tensions that could slow the process or even stop it in its tracks. Juggernaut calls for leadership by the largest countries in managing these tensions, and underscores the need to cultivate a ""global conscience.