Vladimir F. Krapivin

Professor Kondratyev and his team consider the concept of global warming due to the greenhouse effect and put forward a new approach to the problem of assessing the impact of anthropogenic processes. Considering data on both sources and sinks for atmospheric carbon and various conceptual schemes of the global carbon dioxide cycle, they suggest a new approach to studies of the problem of the greenhouse effect. They assess the role of different types of soil and vegetation in the assimilation of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, and discuss models of the atmosphere ocean gas exchange and its role in the carbon dioxide cycle, paying special attention to the role of the Arctic Basin. The authors also consider models of other global atmospheric cycles for a range of atmospheric constituents, and conclude by drawing together a range of scenarios on modelling the global carbon cycle.

The growing number of published works dedicated to global environmental change leads to the realization that protection of the natural environment has become an urgent problem. The question of working out principles of co­ evolution of man and nature is being posed with ever-increasing persistence. Scientists in many countries are attempting to find ways of formulating laws governing human processes acting on the environment. Numerous national and international programs regarding biosphere and climate studies contribute to the quest for means of resolving the conflict between human society and nature. However, attempts to find efficient methods of regulating human activity on a global scale encounter principal difficulties. The major difficulty is the lack of an adequate knowledge base pertaining to climatic and biospheric processes as wen as the largely incomplete state of the databases concerning global processes occurring in the atmosphere, in the ocean, and on land. Another difficulty is the inability of modern science to formulate the requirements which must be met by the global databases necessary for reliable evaluation of the state of the environ­ ment and fore casting its development for sufficiently long time intervals.