Scott L. Kastner

As tensions continue to rise between the People’s Republic of China and Taiwan, numerous analysts and officials have warned of a growing risk of military conflict, which could potentially draw in the United States. How worried should we be about a war in the Taiwan Strait? Scott L. Kastner offers a comprehensive analytical account of PRC-Taiwan relations that sheds new light on the prospects for cross-strait military conflict. He examines several key regional trends that have complex implications for stability, including deepening economic integration, the shifting balance of military power, uncertainty about the future of U. S. commitment, and domestic political changes in both the PRC and Taiwan. Kastner argues that the risks of conflict are real but should not be exaggerated. Several distinct pathways could lead to the breakout of hostilities, and the mechanisms that might allay one type of conflict do not necessarily apply to others—yet war is anything but inevitable. Although changes to the balance of power introduce risks, powerful mitigating factors remain in place and there are plausible steps to reduce the likelihood of military conflict. Drawing on both international relations theory and close empirical analysis of regional trends, this book provides vital perspective on how a war in the Taiwan Strait could occur—and how one could be avoided.

As tensions continue to rise between the People’s Republic of China and Taiwan, numerous analysts and officials have warned of a growing risk of military conflict, which could potentially draw in the United States. How worried should we be about a war in the Taiwan Strait? Scott L. Kastner offers a comprehensive analytical account of PRC-Taiwan relations that sheds new light on the prospects for cross-strait military conflict. He examines several key regional trends that have complex implications for stability, including deepening economic integration, the shifting balance of military power, uncertainty about the future of U. S. commitment, and domestic political changes in both the PRC and Taiwan. Kastner argues that the risks of conflict are real but should not be exaggerated. Several distinct pathways could lead to the breakout of hostilities, and the mechanisms that might allay one type of conflict do not necessarily apply to others—yet war is anything but inevitable. Although changes to the balance of power introduce risks, powerful mitigating factors remain in place and there are plausible steps to reduce the likelihood of military conflict. Drawing on both international relations theory and close empirical analysis of regional trends, this book provides vital perspective on how a war in the Taiwan Strait could occur—and how one could be avoided.

China sometimes plays a leadership role in addressing global challenges, but at other times it free rides or even spoils efforts at cooperation. When will rising powers like China help to build and maintain international regimes that sustain cooperation on important issues, and when will they play less constructive roles? This study argues that the strategic setting of a particular issue area has a strong influence on whether and how a rising power will contribute to global governance. Two strategic variables are especially important: the balance of outside options the rising power and established powers face, and whether contributions by the rising power are viewed as indispensable to regime success. Case studies of China's approach to security in Central Asia, nuclear proliferation, global financial governance, and climate change illustrate the logic of the theory, which has implications for contemporary issues such as China's growing role in development finance.

China sometimes plays a leadership role in addressing global challenges, but at other times it free rides or even spoils efforts at cooperation. When will rising powers like China help to build and maintain international regimes that sustain cooperation on important issues, and when will they play less constructive roles? This study argues that the strategic setting of a particular issue area has a strong influence on whether and how a rising power will contribute to global governance. Two strategic variables are especially important: the balance of outside options the rising power and established powers face, and whether contributions by the rising power are viewed as indispensable to regime success. Case studies of China's approach to security in Central Asia, nuclear proliferation, global financial governance, and climate change illustrate the logic of the theory, which has implications for contemporary issues such as China's growing role in development finance.

Why is it that political conflict between countries sometimes undermines commerce between those states, and yet at other times it seems to have little or no effect on cross-border economic flows? The question is an important one, yet, while numerous studies have considered how and to what extent international political conflict affects trade, few consider how and when economic linkages can develop despite hostile political relations. This book addresses that gap, and demonstrates that the impact of international political conflict on commerce will be muted when national leaders are accountable to internationalist economic interests—because such leaders will try to prevent political disputes with other countries from spilling over into economic arenas. The author develops this argument primarily through a detailed case study of a critically important contemporary case: the relationship between Mainland China and Taiwan. He then tests it via two shorter case studies.

Why is it that political conflict between countries sometimes undermines commerce between those states, and yet at other times it seems to have little or no effect on cross-border economic flows? The question is an important one, yet, while numerous studies have considered how and to what extent international political conflict affects trade, few consider how and when economic linkages can develop despite hostile political relations. This book addresses that gap, and demonstrates that the impact of international political conflict on commerce will be muted when national leaders are accountable to internationalist economic interests—because such leaders will try to prevent political disputes with other countries from spilling over into economic arenas. The author develops this argument primarily through a detailed case study of a critically important contemporary case: the relationship between Mainland China and Taiwan. He then tests it via two shorter case studies.