Steve Chan

This book examines the future of the Asia Pacific’s political economy and its security challenges for the next quarter century. Featuring pertinent discussions on topics such as the ongoing Sino-American power transition and hedging behavior by various states in this vital region, it explains that while some important legacies will endure (such as China’s centrality in the region and continuing U. S. military dominance), other ongoing changes (such as the obsolescence of the Yoshida Doctrine and China’s displacement of the U. S. as the main economic partner for practically all countries in this region) suggest a more turbulent and unpredictable future. The book also explores the profound changes occurring in Chinese, Japanese, and U. S. domestic politics and their cascading effects on the rest of the region. Highlighting how existing Western analytic categories are unable to fully capture the nuances of the Asia Pacific, this book will be a valuable resource to students and scholars of international relations and comparative politics interested in this region.

This book analyzes the influence of geography— defined broadly to refer to physical size, location, terrain, accessibility, insularity, climate, regions, neighborhoods, natural endowment, strategic pathways, maritime and continental orientations and even imagined communities— on international relations. Drawing on evidence and insights from cross- national research the book highlights geography’s enduring importance in and relevance to the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War, tension across the Taiwan Strait, construction of regional order such as Greater Eurasia and Indo-Pacific and important differences in the nature of the security environment facing China and the U. S., respectively. It successfully bridges the gap that often separates international relations scholarship, interested in the central tendencies characterizing how states interact in general, and more idiographic approaches of Sinology providing rich country-specific details but at the expense of often overlooking features that China shares with other countries. Offering an overview of propositions about how geography has shaped human development and institutions, alongside in- depth discussions of its role in influencing national security and interstate conflict, this book will appeal to students and scholars of international relations, political geography and comparative politics.

How do interstate conflicts start, spread and escalate? Not all local or regional rivalries develop into devastating multistate wars, but those that do cause upheaval across the world. It is important, therefore, to study causal chains and pathways that can trigger a conflict of international proportions. Fuses, Chains, and Backlashes analyzes the factors and processes that have historically ignited wars among the great powers and applies the resulting insights to examine the potential for contemporary Sino-American competition to flare into conflict. Distinguished political scientist Steve Chan emphasizes the importance of considering multiple enabling conditions for system-level conflict, including power shifts, armament races, alliance dynamics, and enduring rivalries. But these conditions in themselves do not always lead to war. Chan introduces the idea of a catalyst--or fuse--that ignites the combustible mixture produced by these variables' interactions. He traces the origins of many large conflagrations to local feuds-such as the dispute across the Taiwan Straits--which in turn invite intervention by third parties--like the United States. By analyzing possible causal pathways to interstate war and applying this historical, empirical context to the present-day relationship between the US and China, Chan hopes to help us learn from the past and avoid future catastrophe.

How do interstate conflicts start, spread and escalate? Not all local or regional rivalries develop into devastating multistate wars, but those that do cause upheaval across the world. It is important, therefore, to study causal chains and pathways that can trigger a conflict of international proportions. Fuses, Chains, and Backlashes analyzes the factors and processes that have historically ignited wars among the great powers and applies the resulting insights to examine the potential for contemporary Sino-American competition to flare into conflict. Distinguished political scientist Steve Chan emphasizes the importance of considering multiple enabling conditions for system-level conflict, including power shifts, armament races, alliance dynamics, and enduring rivalries. But these conditions in themselves do not always lead to war. Chan introduces the idea of a catalyst--or fuse--that ignites the combustible mixture produced by these variables' interactions. He traces the origins of many large conflagrations to local feuds-such as the dispute across the Taiwan Straits--which in turn invite intervention by third parties--like the United States. By analyzing possible causal pathways to interstate war and applying this historical, empirical context to the present-day relationship between the US and China, Chan hopes to help us learn from the past and avoid future catastrophe.

In many areas of the natural and physical world, long periods of seeming stasis or small incremental changes are interrupted by large, sudden leaps. This book illustrates how similar processes characterize international relations. This book points to such occurrences, for example the collapse of the USSR, the unravelling of Napoleon's wartime alliance, and the possible future status of the US dollar; and it illustrates in greater detail the admission of China to the United Nations, the history of economic development of various countries, and the possible formation of a countervailing coalition against US primacy. Steve Chan investigates these instances and explains the dynamics governing these processes of lulls and lurches and illuminates how qualitative research can apply the Boolean logic to study systematically the danger of a possible future Sino-American conflict based on past episodes.

In many areas of the natural and physical world, long periods of seeming stasis or small incremental changes are interrupted by large, sudden leaps. This book illustrates how similar processes characterize international relations. This book points to such occurrences, for example the collapse of the USSR, the unravelling of Napoleon's wartime alliance, and the possible future status of the US dollar; and it illustrates in greater detail the admission of China to the United Nations, the history of economic development of various countries, and the possible formation of a countervailing coalition against US primacy. Steve Chan investigates these instances and explains the dynamics governing these processes of lulls and lurches and illuminates how qualitative research can apply the Boolean logic to study systematically the danger of a possible future Sino-American conflict based on past episodes.

Historical analogies are often utilized to frame and formulate foreign policies, illuminate issues of war and peace, and mobilize support for particular political programs. The historical record, however, can be distorted in a variety of ways, leading to overly simplistic, misleading conclusions that impair sound policy and scholarship. This danger is most imminent and palpable when there exists premature academic consensus, pressure to conform to political orthodoxy, intellectual complacency, and cognitive resistance to alternate interpretations of historical episodes. We must be especially vigilant to guard against these pitfalls when deliberating one of the most high-stakes topics in global politics: the alarming potential for military conflict between the United States and China. Past precedents and parallels regularly inform analyses of China's relations with the US. By highlighting serious errors of commission or omission in popular narratives and scholarly studies concerning international relations in general and Sino-American relations in particular, Steve Chan challenges commonly accepted "lessons of history" and cautions against the misuse and misunderstanding of the past in examining China's rise and its implications for international peace and stability. This far-reaching book presents alternative, overlooked historical accounts that are highly pertinent to Sino-American relations today, making it essential for researchers and students of international affairs.

Historical analogies are often utilized to frame and formulate foreign policies, illuminate issues of war and peace, and mobilize support for particular political programs. The historical record, however, can be distorted in a variety of ways, leading to overly simplistic, misleading conclusions that impair sound policy and scholarship. This danger is most imminent and palpable when there exists premature academic consensus, pressure to conform to political orthodoxy, intellectual complacency, and cognitive resistance to alternate interpretations of historical episodes. We must be especially vigilant to guard against these pitfalls when deliberating one of the most high-stakes topics in global politics: the alarming potential for military conflict between the United States and China. Past precedents and parallels regularly inform analyses of China's relations with the US. By highlighting serious errors of commission or omission in popular narratives and scholarly studies concerning international relations in general and Sino-American relations in particular, Steve Chan challenges commonly accepted "lessons of history" and cautions against the misuse and misunderstanding of the past in examining China's rise and its implications for international peace and stability. This far-reaching book presents alternative, overlooked historical accounts that are highly pertinent to Sino-American relations today, making it essential for researchers and students of international affairs.

The author presents contrarian arguments contesting mainstream US views on the danger of a Sino-American war over Taiwan's status. They contend that these countries' dispute about Taiwan is motivated by opposing strategic interests and security concerns rather than just, or even mainly, clashing values such as national reunification, sovereignty, democracy, and self-determination. The danger of a Sino-American confrontation has become more elevated recently due to a confluence of several concurrent developments. Despite this increased danger compared to any time since Richard Nixon visited Beijing in 1972, they conclude that war is not imminent or likely-barring extreme hardliners and radical nationalists taking over policymaking in Beijing, Taipei and/or Washington. Despite a rising chorus urging Washington to commit more firmly to Taiwan's defense, they argue that the United States will not likely intervene directly on Taiwan's behalf. Even more controversially, they submit that Beijing will eventually prevail in this dispute.

The author presents contrarian arguments contesting mainstream US views on the danger of a Sino-American war over Taiwan's status. They contend that these countries' dispute about Taiwan is motivated by opposing strategic interests and security concerns rather than just, or even mainly, clashing values such as national reunification, sovereignty, democracy, and self-determination. The danger of a Sino-American confrontation has become more elevated recently due to a confluence of several concurrent developments. Despite this increased danger compared to any time since Richard Nixon visited Beijing in 1972, they conclude that war is not imminent or likely-barring extreme hardliners and radical nationalists taking over policymaking in Beijing, Taipei and/or Washington. Despite a rising chorus urging Washington to commit more firmly to Taiwan's defense, they argue that the United States will not likely intervene directly on Taiwan's behalf. Even more controversially, they submit that Beijing will eventually prevail in this dispute.

This book analyzes the influence of geography— defined broadly to refer to physical size, location, terrain, accessibility, insularity, climate, regions, neighborhoods, natural endowment, strategic pathways, maritime and continental orientations and even imagined communities— on international relations. Drawing on evidence and insights from cross- national research the book highlights geography’s enduring importance in and relevance to the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War, tension across the Taiwan Strait, construction of regional order such as Greater Eurasia and Indo-Pacific and important differences in the nature of the security environment facing China and the U. S., respectively. It successfully bridges the gap that often separates international relations scholarship, interested in the central tendencies characterizing how states interact in general, and more idiographic approaches of Sinology providing rich country-specific details but at the expense of often overlooking features that China shares with other countries. Offering an overview of propositions about how geography has shaped human development and institutions, alongside in- depth discussions of its role in influencing national security and interstate conflict, this book will appeal to students and scholars of international relations, political geography and comparative politics.

A country's culture influences its economic growth, which in turn influences its international position. Confucian heritage appears to be the common factor explaining the rapid economic growth of East Asian countries, including China's meteoric rise in recent years. Ironically, Confucianism has been criticized not too long ago for hindering progress in these countries. At the same time, Protestant countries, once the vanguards of economic development, have seen weak growth., These developed economies are undergoing a cultural transformation from an emphasis on materialist concerns to postmaterialist ones. What do these trends augur for their economic growth and international competitiveness, particularly in the context of ongoing power shifts between China and the United States?

A country's culture influences its economic growth, which in turn influences its international position. Confucian heritage appears to be the common factor explaining the rapid economic growth of East Asian countries, including China's meteoric rise in recent years. Ironically, Confucianism has been criticized not too long ago for hindering progress in these countries. At the same time, Protestant countries, once the vanguards of economic development, have seen weak growth., These developed economies are undergoing a cultural transformation from an emphasis on materialist concerns to postmaterialist ones. What do these trends augur for their economic growth and international competitiveness, particularly in the context of ongoing power shifts between China and the United States?

It is widely believed that shifts in the balance of power between an established hegemon and a rising upstart can lead to war. To what extent does this proposition hold true for Sino-American relations today? Steve Chan examines a range of international relations theories and popular narratives that suggest an elevated risk of confrontation between the two powers. Probing the recent deterioration in Sino-American relations, he considers whether several factors that can raise or lower international tension apply to the current situation. Chan demonstrates that power shifts do not preordain violent outcomes—nor does their absence ensure peace. Criticizing overly mechanistic frameworks, he emphasizes that domestic politics, international political economy, and the choices of individual leaders are all crucial to understanding why wars happen. Chan demonstrates that claims of a “rising China” catching up to and even poised to overtake the United States are alarmist: American structural advantages will endure for some time to come. Contrary to prevailing narratives, China does not act like a revisionist power seeking to overturn the system, while the United States, far from defending the international order, has frequently undermined it. However, Chan cautions, Taiwan remains a flashpoint for a possible Sino-American conflict. Bringing together expertise in IR theory and keen political acumen, Rumbles of Thunder challenges conventional wisdom on the likelihood of war between the United States and China.

It is widely believed that shifts in the balance of power between an established hegemon and a rising upstart can lead to war. To what extent does this proposition hold true for Sino-American relations today? Steve Chan examines a range of international relations theories and popular narratives that suggest an elevated risk of confrontation between the two powers. Probing the recent deterioration in Sino-American relations, he considers whether several factors that can raise or lower international tension apply to the current situation. Chan demonstrates that power shifts do not preordain violent outcomes—nor does their absence ensure peace. Criticizing overly mechanistic frameworks, he emphasizes that domestic politics, international political economy, and the choices of individual leaders are all crucial to understanding why wars happen. Chan demonstrates that claims of a “rising China” catching up to and even poised to overtake the United States are alarmist: American structural advantages will endure for some time to come. Contrary to prevailing narratives, China does not act like a revisionist power seeking to overturn the system, while the United States, far from defending the international order, has frequently undermined it. However, Chan cautions, Taiwan remains a flashpoint for a possible Sino-American conflict. Bringing together expertise in IR theory and keen political acumen, Rumbles of Thunder challenges conventional wisdom on the likelihood of war between the United States and China.

How can we know a country, such as the United States or China, is revisionist, that is, whether it intends to upset the international order? What motivates states to act the way they do? Contesting Revisionism focuses on a particular kind of motivation inclining a state to challenge the existing norms, rules, and institutions of international order: revisionism. The authors offer a critique of the existing discourse on revisionism and investigate the origin and evolution of the foreign policy orientations of revisionist states in the past. Furthermore, they introduce an ensemble of indicators to discern and compare the extent of revisionist tendencies on the part of contemporary China and the United States. Questioning the facile assumption that past episodes will repeat in the future, they argue that "hard" revisionism relying on war and conquest is less viable and likely in today's world. Instead, "soft" revisionism seeking to promote institutional change is more relevant and likely. Focusing on contemporary Sino-American relations, they conclude that much of the current discourse based on power transition theory is problematic. A dominant power is not inevitably committed to the defense of international order, nor does a rising power always have a revisionist agenda to challenge this order. The transformation of international order does not necessarily require a power transition between China and the US., nor does a possible power transition necessarily augur war. After developing the concept of revisionism both theoretically and empirically, they conclude with a series of policy recommendations for enhancing international stability and diminishing tension in Sino-American relations.

How can we know a country, such as the United States or China, is revisionist, that is, whether it intends to upset the international order? What motivates states to act the way they do? Contesting Revisionism focuses on a particular kind of motivation inclining a state to challenge the existing norms, rules, and institutions of international order: revisionism. The authors offer a critique of the existing discourse on revisionism and investigate the origin and evolution of the foreign policy orientations of revisionist states in the past. Furthermore, they introduce an ensemble of indicators to discern and compare the extent of revisionist tendencies on the part of contemporary China and the United States. Questioning the facile assumption that past episodes will repeat in the future, they argue that "hard" revisionism relying on war and conquest is less viable and likely in today's world. Instead, "soft" revisionism seeking to promote institutional change is more relevant and likely. Focusing on contemporary Sino-American relations, they conclude that much of the current discourse based on power transition theory is problematic. A dominant power is not inevitably committed to the defense of international order, nor does a rising power always have a revisionist agenda to challenge this order. The transformation of international order does not necessarily require a power transition between China and the US., nor does a possible power transition necessarily augur war. After developing the concept of revisionism both theoretically and empirically, they conclude with a series of policy recommendations for enhancing international stability and diminishing tension in Sino-American relations.

This book offers a succinct account of Pacific regional political economy from the dawn of the modem world system to projections of alternative futures. It addresses the cardinal policy values of economic growth, political order, and military security in the Pacific region.

The Peloponnesian War (431–404 BCE) ostensibly arose because of the fear that a rising Athens would threaten Sparta’s power in the Mediterranean. The idea of Thucydides’ Trap warns that all rising powers threaten established powers. As China increases its power relative to the United States, the theory argues, the two nations are inevitably set on a collision course toward war. How enlightening is an analogy based on the ancient Greek world of 2,500 years ago for understanding contemporary international relations? How accurate is the depiction of the history of other large armed conflicts, such as the two world wars, as a challenge mounted by a rising power to displace an incumbent hegemon? Thucydides’s Trap?: Historical Interpretation, Logic of Inquiry, and the Future of Sino-American Relations offers a critique of the claims of Thucydides’s Trap and power-transition theory. It examines past instances of peaceful accommodation to uncover lessons that can ease the frictions in ongoing Sino-American relations.

East Asian Dynamism continues to offer a succinct account of Pacific regional political economy from the dawn of the modern world system to projections of alternative futures. Steve Chan is a master at demystifying the geography, history, and culture of the region while bringing to life the current policy choices and dilemmas facing its people