Daniel Kahneman

A year's worth of management wisdom, all in one place. We've reviewed the ideas, insights, and best practices from the past year of Harvard Business Review to keep you up-to-date on the most cutting-edge, influential thinking driving business today. With authors from Michael E. Porter to Daniel Kahneman and company examples from P&G to Adobe, this volume brings the most current and important management conversations to your fingertips. This book will inspire you to: Reconsider what keeps your customers coming backCreate visualizations that send a clear messageAssess how quickly disruptive change is coming to your industryBoost engagement by giving your employees the freedom to break the rulesUnderstand what blockchain is and how it will affect your industryGet your product in customers' hands faster by accelerating your research and development phase This collection of articles includes "Customer Loyalty Is Overrated," by A. G. Lafley and Roger L. Martin; "Noise: How to Overcome the High, Hidden Cost of Inconsistent Decision Making," by Daniel Kahneman, Andrew M. Rosenfield, Linnea Gandhi, and Tom Blaser; "Visualizations That Really Work," by Scott Berinato; "Right Tech, Wrong Time," by Ron Adner and Rahul Kapoor; "How to Pay for Health Care," by Michael E. Porter and Robert S. Kaplan; "The Performance Management Revolution," by Peter Cappelli and Anna Tavis; "Let Your Workers Rebel," by Francesca Gino; "Why Diversity Programs Fail," by Frank Dobbin and Alexandra Kalev; "What So Many People Don’t Get About the U. S. Working Class," by Joan C. Williams; "The Truth About Blockchain," by Marco Iansiti and Karim R. Lakhani; and "The Edison of Medicine," by Steven Prokesch.

NEW from the bestselling HBR's 10 Must Reads series. Learn why bad decisions happen to good managers--and how to make better ones. If you read nothing else on decision making, read these 10 articles. We've combed through hundreds of articles in the Harvard Business Review archive and selected the most important ones to help you and your organization make better choices and avoid common traps. Leading experts such as Ram Charan, Michael Mankins, and Thomas Davenport provide the insights and advice you need to: * Make bold decisions that challenge the status quo * Support your decisions with diverse data * Evaluate risks and benefits with equal rigor * Check for faulty cause-and-effect reasoning * Test your decisions with experiments * Foster and address constructive criticism * Defeat indecisiveness with clear accountability Looking for more Must Read articles from Harvard Business Review? Check out these titles in the popular series: HBR's 10 Must Reads: The Essentials HBR's 10 Must Reads on Communication HBR's 10 Must Reads on Collaboration HBR's 10 Must Reads on Innovation HBR's 10 Must Reads on Leadership HBR's 10 Must Reads on Managing Yourself HBR's 10 Must Reads on Strategic Marketing HBR's 10 Must Reads on Teams

Learn why bad decisions happen to good managers—and how to make better ones. If you read nothing else on decision making, read these 10 articles. We’ve combed through hundreds of articles in the Harvard Business Review archive and selected the most important ones to help you and your organization make better choices and avoid common traps. Leading experts such as Ram Charan, Michael Mankins, and Thomas Davenport provide the insights and advice you need to: Make bold decisions that challenge the status quoSupport your decisions with diverse dataEvaluate risks and benefits with equal rigorCheck for faulty cause-and-effect reasoningTest your decisions with experimentsFoster and address constructive criticismDefeat indecisiveness with clear accountability

Before Thinking, Fast and Slow, there was Attention and Effort. Attention and Effort is Daniel Kahneman's groundbreaking study of how the human mind allocates its limited mental resources. Drawing on experimental psychology, physiology, and cognitive theory, Kahneman explores what it really means to concentrate, why mental effort feels costly, and how attention is shaped by motivation, fatigue, and competing demands. Long before the language of 'cognitive load' and 'limited bandwidth' became commonplace, Kahneman was pioneering these ideas, showing that attention is an active, effortful process - one that governs perception, performance and decision-making. His account of mental effort laid the foundations for later work on judgment and ultimately for the field of behavioural economics. Rigorous and intellectually ambitious, Attention and Effort remains essential reading for psychologists, neuroscientists, economists, and anyone interested in how the mind works under pressure. This new edition features a new introduction from neuroscientist and author of The Organised Mind, Daniel Levitin, who was also a collaborator of Kahneman's. Attention and Effort allows readers to rediscover the early thinking of a scholar whose ideas would go on to change how we understand rationality itself.

Attention and Effort is Daniel Kahneman's groundbreaking study of how the human mind allocates its limited mental resources. Drawing on experimental psychology, physiology, and cognitive theory, Kahneman explores what it really means to concentrate, why mental effort feels costly, and how attention is shaped by motivation, fatigue, and competing demands. Long before the language of 'cognitive load' and 'limited bandwidth' became commonplace, Kahneman was pioneering these ideas, showing that attention is an active, effortful process - one that governs perception, performance and decision-making. His account of mental effort laid the foundations for later work on judgment and ultimately for the field of behavioural economics. Rigorous and intellectually ambitious, Attention and Effort remains essential reading for psychologists, neuroscientists, economists, and anyone interested in how the mind works under pressure. This new edition features a new introduction from neuroscientist and author of The Organised Mind, Daniel Levitin, who was also a collaborator of Kahneman's. Attention and Effort allows readers to rediscover the early thinking of a scholar whose ideas would go on to change how we understand rationality itself.

Zazvichaj mi vvazhajemo, scho dijemo ratsionalno. Ale chi spravdi tse tak? Na osnovi doslidzhen iz kognitivnoji ta sotsialnoji psikhologiji Deniel Kaneman rozkrivaje tajemnitsi roboti ljudskogo mozku, opisuje neusvidomleni uperedzhennja, vlastivosti intujitivnogo ta usvidomlenogo mislennja, rol emotsij v otsinnikh sudzhennjakh. Bez tsikh znan vi rizikujete zrobiti nepravilnij vibir u magazini, investuvati v neuspishni proekti j zagalom prijmati nepravilni rishennja. "Mislennja shvidke j povilne" navchit vas efektivno koristuvatisja obmezhenim resursom uvagi, ukhvaljuvati rishennja v umovakh neviznachenosti j udoskonaljuvati vlasni sudzhennja. Utim knizhka ne je sukhoju instruktsijeju z ekspluatatsiji mozku. Tse psikhologichna drama z dvoma dijovimi osobami u vashij golovi - intujitivnim ta usvidomlenim mislennjam. Deniel Kaneman - izrajilsko-amerikanskij psikholog, ekonomist, sotsiolog. U 2002 rotsi zdobuv Nobelivsku premiju z ekonomiki. Nagorodzhenij odnijeju z najbilshikh vidznak SSHA - Prezidentskoju medallju Svobodi. U 2011 i 2012 rokakh vkhodiv do chisla 50 najvplivovishikh ljudej finansovogo svitu za versijeju zhurnalu Bloomberg Markets.

Psykologen Daniel Kahneman, som belönats med Ekonomipriset till Alfred Nobels minne för sin banbrytande forskning, anses vara en av vår tids viktigaste tänkare. Hans forskning har haft stort inflytande inom en rad olika områden från ekonomi och psykologi till medicin och politik. Men det är först nu, i Tänka, snabbt och långsamt, som hans idéer blir tillgängliga för en bredare publik. Vill du veta......varför det är bättre att ställas inför en domare strax efter lunch än sent på eftermiddagen? ...varför intelligenta kvinnor väljer att att gifta sig med korkade män? ...varför investerare skulle tjäna mer på att ta en dusch än på att byta aktier? Läs succéboken Tänka, snabbt och långsamt så får du svaren och mycket, mycket mer. Daniel Kahnemans storverk kommer för evigt att förändra ditt sätt att tänka om hur du tänker. Daniel Kahneman (1934-2024) var professor i psykologi vid Princeton University. Tänka, snabbt och långsamt har getts ut i över trettio länder och har sålt i mer än en miljon exemplar. *** "Boken ska helst avnjutas som ett årgångsvin, i små klunkar, så att man hinner smaka på orden, pröva exemplen och begrunda hur det komplexa innehållet långsamt har mognat fram." - Svenska Dagbladet"Daniel Kahnemans bästsäljare gör vår värld samtidigt större och mer begriplig." - Dagens Nyheter"Många har läst och inspirerats av storsäljare som Den tändande gnistan, Freakonomics, Den svarta svanen och Blink. Alla dessa böcker har rottrådar som kan ledas tillbaka till forskning av Daniel Kahneman." - Jan Gradvall, DI Weekend"Inte bara en bok för den som är intresserad av psykologi eller ekonomi, utan för alla som är intresserade av mänskligt tänkande." - Vetenskapsradion, P1 "Daniel Kahneman är en av vår tids mest originella och intressanta tänkare. Kanske förstår han bättre än någon annan nu levande människa hur och varför vi fattar de beslut vi gör. I den här storartade boken delar han med sig av ett helt livs samlade visdomar, på samma gång lättillgängligt, medryckande och skarpsinnigt. Boken är ett måste för alla med ett nyfiket intellekt." - Steven D. Levitt, professor vid University of Chicago och medförfattare till Freakonomics"Tänka, snabbt och långsamt är ett mästerverk ett helskärpt och medryckande intellektuellt äventyr av en av vår tids största psykologer och djupaste tänkare. Kahneman borde få ett Pulitzerpris att ställa bredvid sitt Ekonomipris." - Daniel Gilbert, professor i psykologi vid Harvard University, författare till Snubbla på lyckan"Det är en förbluffande innehållsrik bok: klarsynt, djup och full av intellektuella överraskningar och matnyttiga råd. Den är oavbrutet underhållande och ofta gripande. Jag uppmanar å det varmaste alla att köpa och läsa den." - The New York Times Book Review"Den här boken är ett samhällsvetenskapligt landmärke, i klass med Adam Smiths Wealth of Nations och Sigmund Freuds Drömtydning." - Nassim Taleb, författare till Den svarta svanen

Der vil altid være støj, der gør det svært for enhver at foretage vurderinger og træffe beslutninger. Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony og Cass R. Sunstein viser i denne bog, hvordan støj er årsagen til, at der begås fejl inden for alle områder – herunder lægevidenskab, jura, sundhed, patenter, økonomi, retsmedicin, strategi og ansættelsesprocesser. Selvom støj findes overalt, hvor der træffes beslutninger, ignorerer både enkeltpersoner og organisationer dens betydning – ofte med store omkostninger til følge. Med enkle midler udforsker denne banebrydende bog, hvad vi kan gøre for at træffe bedre beslutninger. Forestil dig to læger, der stiller forskellige diagnoser til patienter med samme sygdom. Eller to dommere ved samme domstol, der giver forskellige domme til mennesker, der har begået identiske forbrydelser. Forestil dig, at beslutningerne afhænger af, om det er morgen eller eftermiddag, om det er mandag eller onsdag, eller om det er lige før eller efter frokost. Det er eksempler på støj: variationer i beslutninger, der burde være identiske.

Kujutage ette, et kaks arsti panevad samale patsiendile erinevad diagnoosid või kaks kohtunikku määravad kohtualusele erinevad karistused. Need on näited otsuste varieeruvusest, mis peaksid olema identsed. Kujutage nüüd ette, et kõnealused arstid ja kohtunikud jõuavad erinevate otsusteni sõltuvalt sellest, kas on hommik või pärastlõuna, esmaspäev või kolmapäev. Kõikjal, kus on otsused, olgu isiklikud või töised, on ka müra. Lisaks ebaõiglusele loob see märkimisväärset majanduslikku kahju. Näiteks: kui tarkvaraarendajatel paluti eri päevadel hinnata samale ülesandele kuluvat aega, varieerusid tulemused tundides keskmiselt 71 protsenti. Katsed on kinnitanud sedagi, et hinnang töötaja sooritusele sõltub pigem selle andjast kui tulemusest. Kahneman, Sibony ja Sunstein kinnitavad oma menukis, et müra hulka saab vaid mõne lihtsa abinõuga tuntavalt vähendada ning jõuda seeläbi paremate otsusteni. Nende raamat uurib:- Müra ja nihke erinevust, näidates, et organisatsioonid võivad vahel olla lausa shokeerivalt mürased. Väite tõestuseks tutvustavad autorid müraauditi mõtet, mis on loodud selle mõõtmiseks.- Inimeste otsustuste olemust, kirjeldades, kuidas mõõta täpsust ja viga. Lisaks selgitatakse juhumüra olemust, mis kipub eriti hoogsalt tekkima grupiaruteludes näiliselt asjassepuutumatute tegurite tõttu (kes kõneleb esimesena jne).- Prognoosivaid otsustusi, samuti reeglite, valemite ja algoritmide olulisi eeliseid inimeste ees. Vastupidiselt levinud arvamusele ei ole asi niivõrd reeglite ülimuslikus tarkuses, vaid nende müratuses.- Psühholoogia seda osa, mis selgitab müra peamisi põhjuseid. Autorid uurivad, miks jääb müra märkamata ning miks meid ei üllata sündmused ja otsustused, mida polnud võimalik ennustada.- Kuidas oma otsustusi parandada ja vigu vältida? Autorid tutvustavad mitut müra vähendamise tehnikat, samuti vahehinnangute reeglistikku ehk võimaluste kaalumise käsitlust, mis sisaldab mitut olulist otsusehügieeni elementi ning mille eesmärk on jõuda usaldusväärsemate ja vähem müraste otsustusteni.- Milline on õige müratase? Mõnes valdkonnas ei olegi võimalik müra kõrvaldada, teistes oleks see liiga kulukas, kolmandas kahjustaks müra vähendamine olulisi konkurentsieeliseid.

Se for deg at to leger i samme by gir totalt ulike diagnoser til identiske pasienter - eller at to dommere ved samme domstol idømmer helt ulike straffer til folk som har begått nøyaktig samme type kriminalitet. Sett at når et selskap behandler klager fra kundene, avhenger utfallet av hvilken kundebehandler som får jobben. Forestill deg videre at den samme legen, den samme dommeren eller kundebehandleren kommer til ulike resultater avhengig av om det er før eller etter lunsj, eller mandag fremfor fredag. Dette er eksempler på «støy»: variabilitet i avgjørelser som burde vært identiske. Gale beslutninger spiller en stor rolle i livet vårt, også når mye står på spill. Våre vurderinger, og det inkluderer de såkalte ekspertenes, er mye mer preget av tilfeldigheter enn vi er klar over. Men både enkeltmennesker og organisasjoner er som regel helt uvitende om i hvor stor grad tilfeldighetene herjer. I hvilken grad folk vil motsi sine egne tidligere avgjørelser når de presenteres for samme problemstilling på nytt, er en indikator på mengden støy. Fenomenet reduserer kvaliteten på vurderinger og beslutninger over alt, i næringslivet, i privatlivet og i samfunnet for øvrig. Denne boken presenterer systemer for å måle støy. Det viser seg dessverre at det ikke blir mindre støy av at beslutningstakerne er erfarne. En mulig løsning er i større grad å erstatte menneskelig vurdering med algoritmer, men også andre effektive metoder finnes - når man først har blitt klar over problemet.

THE INTERNATIONAL BESTSELLER ‘A monumental, gripping book … Outstanding’ SUNDAY TIMES ‘Noise may be the most important book I've read in more than a decade. A genuinely new idea so exceedingly important you will immediately put it into practice. A masterpiece’ Angela Duckworth, author of Grit ‘An absolutely brilliant investigation of a massive societal problem that has been hiding in plain sight’ Steven Levitt, co-author of Freakonomics From the world-leaders in strategic thinking and the multi-million copy bestselling authors of Thinking Fast and Slow and Nudge, the next big book to change the way you think. We like to think we make decisions based on good reasoning – and that our doctors, judges, politicians, economic forecasters and employers do too. In this groundbreaking book, three world-leading behavioural scientists come together to assess the last great fault in our collective decision-making: noise. We all make bad judgements more than we think. Noise shows us what we can do to make better ones.

The Sunday Times bestseller'A monumental, gripping book ... Outstanding' Sunday Times Wherever there is human judgement, there is noise. 'Noise may be the most important book I've read in more than a decade. A genuinely new idea so exceedingly important you will immediately put it into practice. A masterpiece' Angela Duckworth, author of Grit 'An absolutely brilliant investigation of a massive societal problem that has been hiding in plain sight'Steven Levitt, co-author of Freakonomics From the world-leaders in strategic thinking and the multi-million copy bestselling authors of Thinking Fast and Slow and Nudge, the next big book to change the way you think. Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients - or that two judges in the same court give different sentences to people who have committed matching crimes. Now imagine that the same doctor and the same judge make different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday, or they haven't yet had lunch. These are examples of noise: variability in judgements that should be identical. In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony and Cass R. Sunstein show how noise produces errors in many fields, including in medicine, law, public health, economic forecasting, forensic science, child protection, creative strategy, performance review and hiring. And although noise can be found wherever people are making judgements and decisions, individuals and organizations alike commonly ignore its impact, at great cost. Packed with new ideas, and drawing on the same kind of sharp analysis and breadth of case study that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge international bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise and bias in decision-making. We all make bad judgements more than we think. With a few simple remedies, this groundbreaking book explores what we can do to make better ones.

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER From the Nobel Prize-winning author of Thinking, Fast and Slow and the coauthor of Nudge, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones--"a tour de force" (New York Times). Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients--or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants--or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical. In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions. Packed with original ideas, and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment--and what we can do about it.

From the Nobel Prize-winning author of Thinking, Fast and Slow and the coauthor of Nudge, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones--"a tour de force" (New York Times). Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients--or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants--or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical. In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions. Packed with original ideas, and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment--and what we can do about it.

PARA ENTENDER C MO PENSAMOS Y PENSAR MEJOR, HAY QUE LEER A KAHNEMAN. --Premio Nobel de Econom a Dos m dicos en la misma ciudad pueden dar diagn sticos diferentes a pacientes id nticos; dos jueces pueden dictar sentencias distintas ante delitos similares; nosotros mismos podemos decidir una cosa u otra seg n sea por la ma ana o por la tarde, o seg n se acerque o no la hora de comer. Estos son ejemplos de ruido: el sesgo que conlleva variabilidad en juicios que deber an ser iguales. El ruido est presente en todas las decisiones individuales y colectivas, y produce errores en innumerables terrenos, desde la medicina hasta la econom a, pasando por el derecho, la sanidad, la protecci n infantil y la contrataci n. Adem s, tambi n nos importuna e influye a la hora de tomar muchas de nuestras decisiones cotidianas. Daniel Kahneman, uno de los psic logos m s importantes del mundo, junto con Cass R. Sunstein y Olivier Sibony, dos eminencias mundiales en pensamiento estrat gico, nos ense an a escuchar ese ruido, cuyo impacto tendemos a ignorar, y a reducirlo para mejorar nuestros juicios. Basado en el mismo tipo de an lisis agudo e ingeniosos ejemplos que convirti Pensar r pido, pensar despacio en un best seller internacional, Ruido ofrece una serie de remedios originales, pr cticos y sencillos para pensar mejor. ENGLISH DESCRIPTION From the Nobel Prize-winning author of Thinking, Fast and Slow and the coauthor of Nudge, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones--"a tour de force" (New York Times). Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients--or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants--or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical. In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions. Packed with original ideas, and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment--and what we can do about it.

Dva odinakovo uvazhaemykh vracha mogut postavit patsientu sovershenno raznye diagnozy. Dva odinakovo chestnykh sudi - vynesti absoljutno raznye verdikty po odnomu delu. Dva odinakovo opytnykh spetsialista po podboru personala - vybrat na odnu i tu zhe dolzhnost raznykh soiskatelej... Pochemu eto proiskhodit? Ot chego zavisit? Mogut li na takie vazhnye reshenija vlijat vremja sutok ili den nedeli? Daniel Kaneman vmeste s Olive Siboni i Kassom R. Sanstejnom raskrojut sekrety shuma - postoronnikh vlijanij na nashi suzhdenija - vo mnogikh oblastjakh: ot meditsiny do kriminalistiki, ot ekonomicheskogo prognozirovanija do jurisprudentsii, i, chto esche vazhnee, nauchat, kak ego umenshit, a znachit, nachat nakhodit luchshie reshenija.

Dva odinakovo uvazhaemykh vracha mogut postavit patsientu sovershenno raznye diagnozy. Dva odinakovo chestnykh sudi - vynesti absoljutno raznye verdikty po odnomu delu. Dva odinakovo opytnykh spetsialista po podboru personala - vybrat na odnu i tu zhe dolzhnost raznykh soiskatelej... Pochemu eto proiskhodit? Ot chego zavisit? Mogut li na takie vazhnye reshenija vlijat vremja sutok ili den nedeli? Daniel Kaneman vmeste s Olive Siboni i Kassom R. Sanstejnom raskrojut sekrety shuma - postoronnikh vlijanij na nashi suzhdenija - vo mnogikh oblastjakh: ot meditsiny do kriminalistiki, ot ekonomicheskogo prognozirovanija do jurisprudentsii, i, chto esche vazhnee, nauchat, kak ego umenshit, a znachit, nachat nakhodit luchshie reshenija.