Naval Postgraduate School

This research looks at the issue of risk tolerance, and analyzes its role in U. S. Army Special Forces (SF). Morespecifically, it assesses the degree to which senior members of an organization allow junior members to makeautonomous decisions, and argues that the unconventional warfare (UW) mission and nature of SF call for a higherdegree of risk tolerance than is seen in conventional forces. A longitudinal case study of the conflict in Afghanistan shows that in 2001 SF had a "long leash" to allow for autonomy and flexibility, which was necessary to succeed in a UW environment. However, by 2006, the leash was shortened and more control measures were implemented. While a "short leash" may be appropriate for a conventional battlefield, it adversely impacts SF effectiveness in a UW environment. The three main reasons that induce risk aversion in SF leaders are exogenous political factors, organizational considerations including chain of command, and organizational culture, which is reinforced by the current Army officer evaluation system. This analysis suggests that the deleterious impact of these factors needs to be addressed inSF.

Extensive studies and research have been conducted on insider threats, the possible causes, predictive models and best practices for prevention, early detection, and mitigation of the threats of insider attacks to a wide range of critical infrastructure, government agencies, and the private sector. Current research shows a great deal of attention directed at the cyber threats toward organizations. In contrast, relatively little research has been conducted on the insider threat with regard to financial fraud and embezzlement to organizations. Left undetected, insiders can cause irreparable and devastating consequences to private and public sector organizations, which compromise the integrity of the overall financial system. Recent criminal cases have revealed a disturbing trend linking many of the trusted insiders convicted of conducting fraud or embezzlement within the victim organizations to an addiction to gambling or prescription drugs. Also alarming is the frequency of trusted insiders conducting fraud within government agencies to support their addiction. This paper studies research on insider threats, and suggests that addiction is a contributing factor to the motives of the insiders criminal behaviors. Research also suggests that accurate reporting by law enforcement agencies is not occurring in police reports on motives or causes of the reasons insiders are committing their crimes.

A fundamental characteristic of state-state interaction in a globalized system is the explicitness with which states communicate their foreign policies to each other. In order to understand the role and the importance of foreign policy explicitness in the global foreign policy system, I first created a simple mesh model of the actors and institutions that form the U. S. foreign policy system. By optimizing this model with various systems engineering concepts, I discovered that foreign policy explicitness plays an important role in improving the effectiveness of the foreign policy system as a whole. I then applied this result to an analysis of U. S-China foreign policy relations since 1949 in order to determine how foreign policy explicitness has affected real-world state-state relations. By following the development of U. S.-China relations, I found that increases in foreign policy explicitness have been the precursor to many of the most important bilaterally beneficial developments in the U. S.-China relationship. Finally, I examined the U. S. foreign policy system in order to better understand the current state of U. S. foreign policy explicitness. I discovered that the U. S. is actively undertaking many initiatives that are increasing U. S. foreign policy explicitness; however, more can be done to focus this process.

Unmanned aircraft systems (UAS, also known as drones) are being increasingly more utilized in domestic law enforcement operations, enabling officers to maximize situational awareness from overhead while minimizing their exposure to danger. As the domestic airspace is scheduled to be fully drone integrated by 2015, growing concerns over national security and privacy issues have highlighted the capabilities and potential implications of using UAS on a national scale. This book examines the potential effectiveness of utilizing domestic aerial surveillance to increase homeland security while addressing how, and to what level, these programs should be federally overseen and regulated without infringing on Americans' civil liberties. This book argues that large-scale UAS operations by federal agencies are cost-inefficient and lack tangible results, while state and local agency operations, which employ smaller systems in more specific situations, are less expensive and more effective. Current U. S. law allows for aerial surveillance by law enforcement, but updating privacy legislation to account for modern technology should be considered. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) needs to accelerate its working relationship with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and its UAS approval process to establish and maintain privacy safeguards to ensure the highest level of national security while minimizing civil liberty infringement.

The South Asian Stability Workshop was a crisis simulation exercise held in Colombo, Sri Lanka on 19-22 March 2013. Participants were comprised of Indian, Pakistan, and U. S. former military officers, civilians, and academics. The simulation involved dividing the Indian and Pakistani participants into teams based on country of origin and playing three moves within the context of a hypothetical crisis scenario, set in the year 2018. The simulation was not a tactical-level war-game, but rather an operational/strategic-level exercise. The simulation exercise was designed to reinforce our theoretical understanding of India-Pakistan strategic stability with practical, conceptual clarity. Although Track II dialogues and academic conferences have been useful for developing a robust theoretical understanding of strategic stability, the South Asian Stability Workshop provided a laboratory in which these theoretical hypotheses could be explored and stress-tested. The purpose of the event was to examine crisis decision-making processes and escalation dynamics in South Asia. Given the complex interplay between subconventional, conventional, and nuclear forces on the subcontinent, coupled with military doctrinal evolution, technological maturation, and the lack of a viable strategic restraint regime, the potential for escalation is significant and deserving of analysis. By convening Indian and Pakistani participants to compose the respective country teams, our intention was to emulate real-world military decision-making dynamics and escalatory pressures as closely as possible. By setting the geopolitical scenario in 2018, our intention was to emulate current strategic dynamics in a relatively proximate timeframe, while simultaneously distancing the participants from present-day political sensitivities that might otherwise constrain their behavior during the simulation. The year 2018 is also a symbolic one, marking the 20th anniversary of the Indian and Pakistani nuclear tests. In summary, our objective was not to shape Indian and Pakistani policy or encourage war-fighting, but to gain a better understanding of escalatory dynamics under a nuclear overhang. All participants during the workshop interacted in a friendly, frank, and professional manner. We expect the lessons learned from this event will help stakeholders bridge strategic communication gaps, nurture areas of collaboration for durable peace and security, and foster confidence - building between the United States, India, and Pakistan.

Social movement theories have evolved rapidly during the latter half of the twentieth century, and they offer an enhanced understanding of the organizational dynamics in Hezbollah. Armed resistance theories have also evolved, and shed some light on the decision making process of the organization. These theoretical frameworks coalesce to show that Hezbollah's resolute radical agenda was malleable as the situation changed. As the movement grew, it demonstrated the same concerns as all large groups. This study asks two important questions: why did Hezbollah moderate its political stance, and what lessons can we learn from this case study? This work analyses Lebanon's Hezbollah from 1982 to 1992. The analysis centers on the evolution of the organization's political program, and outlines a distinct shift in organizational goals. The author argues that Hezbollah shifted from a movement that was determined to establish a radical Islamist centered government to one that works within the Lebanese system. The motives behind the shift in political ideologies are important, because they offer options to those who seek to moderate radical political forces.

The efficiency and success of U. S. security initiatives in Latin America requires a thorough understanding of resource conflict and the state's role in managing it. International investments in mining and hydrocarbons in the Central Andes could potentially affect U. S. economic influence in those countries and have real implications for U. S. security presence relative to other world powers. Resource conflict makes it hard for the U. S. government to monitor extraction and production of strategic materials that are critical for the U. S. government to meet its defense needs and to achieve a favorable balance of power vis- -vis other world powers through control over these commodities. This report examines how the regulations that structure the process of local community consultation affect the mining sector in Peru and the hydrocarbon extraction sector in Bolivia. By identifying commonalities in resource conflicts and analyzing how subnational institutions can predict the condition under which conflict arises, this research serves as a first stage in predicting, preempting, and resolving conflict more effectively. The findings in this report should matter to those concerned with the mechanisms by which new projects are reviewed and approved, including the degree to which a project's environmental and social impacts are anticipated and evaluated. In Peru, participation is limited to the procedural level; communities can voice criticism but lack authority to halt a project within the structure of those procedures. At the other extreme, Bolivian lowland communities are granted a high degree of input in new hydrocarbon projects; their legitimate leaders must approve projects in writing in order for companies to obtain the necessary licenses from the environment ministry. This report observes, paradoxically, that the more inclusive framework in Bolivia has led to a free ride for projects on the technical front: in the Bolivian hydrocarbon cases analyzed here, conflict has revolved around achieving dialogue with the state and companies and obtaining appropriate compensation for projects. In contrast, what initially appears to be an easier road for companies has actually triggered more oversight on the technical front in Peru. For Peru, the analysis has shown how the Environmental Impact Assessment has become a highly political process in which subnational actors prove critical in developing and approving the EIA and ultimately the mining project, in spite of regulations that formally limit local participation to empty procedures. Mining conflict has escalated to the point of triggering outside oversight and sometimes the cancellation of projects, stemming from community complaints about technical dimensions of projects.

The Arctic environment is in a state of flux and the U. S. government must be prepared to handle the evolution and capitalize on the opportunities. Once barren and desolate, the Arctic is slowly coming to life with industry and commerce brought about by receding ice conditions. Along with that comes the need for a comprehensive and actionable Arctic policy. The other Arctic nations that ring the North Pole are quickly adapting to the shifting Arctic. Unlike the U. S., they have established Arctic policies, are implementing plans to operate in the region, and taking advantage of the opportunities that this new frontier has to offer. The U. S. framework is the National Strategy for the Arctic Region. The plan is short on detail and aspirational in nature. It lacks clear direction and authority. The U. S. has yet to commit to its role as an Arctic nation. The U. S. Arctic lacks infrastructure such as a deep-water port, a joint military base, and additional heavy icebreaker assets. Additionally, there is no lead agency that has authority and funding to carry out U. S. Arctic objectives. Under the current state of affairs, the U. S. is vulnerable to security, economic, and sovereignty issues in the Arctic.