Naval Postgraduate School

This book examines Turkey's growth as a power under the Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkinma Partisi; AKP) government, and the implications for European institutions. In particular, this study: - reflects on the intertwined historical connection between Turkey and Europe in the South Caucasus and Levant;- examines the extent to which Turkey's interest and policies under the AKP and European Union (EU)- North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) interest and policies intersect and diverge in the two regions; and- evaluates the implications and avenues for cooperation in areas of common interest. The analysis and assessment shows Turkey's policies in the South Caucasus dovetail with EU-NATO regional interest and are not politically Islamic but pragmatic in nature. In the Levant, similar to the South Caucasus, the AKP's interest and policies are somewhat aligned to those of EUNATO; however, the regions volatility and Turkey's cultural and religious linkages to the Middle East are an added dimension which shapes the AKP's independent foreign policy trajectory. Additionally, realpolitik, not Islamism, rules the AKP's interaction with both state and non-state regional political actors.

In 1898, the United States forced Spain to release the colonies of Cuba, Puerto Rico, Guam, and the Philippine Islands. Over the next 20 years, the United States Senate debated whether to keep, how to govern, and finally how to set some of those territories free while making others permanent possessions of the republic. These debates reveal a legislature, and by extension a nation, reevaluating its basic principles and changing place in the world. A review of international relations and domestic politics preceding the Spanish-American War establishes a pattern of legislative deference. Examination of pivotal debates spanning the post-war American imperial period shows how the Senate broke that pattern by seeking an expanded foreign policy role. Each inquiry highlights the effects of partisanship and domestic politics on ostensibly international matters. It is well known that the Senate failed to assert its foreign policy authority over the executive. Yet its efforts to do so casts light on the politics of the period, on how decisions about the acquisition and fate of America's colonies were justified, and on how deeply contested these issue actually were. After extensive debate, the Senate deliberately chose imperialism. This book explains how and why it did so.

This book examines the role of US mass persuasion during modern war and the effects of propaganda, strategic narrative, military strategy, and policy on morale and public opinion. Through historical analysis of several phases of US war propaganda, from the world wars to the Global War on Terror, this book aims to understand the political essence and the cultural and functional nuance of propaganda in a wartime democracy. Prevailing wisdom holds that the United States managed a coherent, focused, and intelligently wielded campaign of mass persuasion in Europe, 1941-1989. Yet, American strategic mass persuasion efforts since 2001 have consistently failed to persuade friend and foe of the strategic efficacy of American and allied campaigns. This book finds that wartime propaganda has little effect if it is not derived from a concrete overall strategy, policy, and narrative. The most impactful uses of mass persuasion rely on a perpetual rebalancing of military theorist Carl von Clausewitz paradoxical trinity violence, chance, and policy, anchored in democratic statecraft and the virtues of pluralism. Therefore, to better facilitate balancing, an independent governmental agency charged with information management during war may better serve the public, policy makers and the military, producing the desired political ends.

Observational data from the Global Temperature and Salinity Profile Program (GTSPP) were used to calculate the upper ocean heat content (OHC) anomaly. The thickness of the upper layer is taken as 300 m for the Pacific/Atlantic Ocean and 150 m for the Indian Ocean since the Indian Ocean has shallower thermoclines. First, the optimal spectral decomposition (OSD) scheme was used to build up monthly synoptic temperature and salinity data set for January 1990 to December 2009 on 1o 1o grids and the same 33 vertical levels as the World Ocean Atlas. Then, the monthly varying upper layer OHC field (H) was obtained. Second, a composite analysis was conducted to obtain the total-time mean OHC field ( H ) and the monthly mean OHC variability (H% ), which is found an order of magnitude smaller than H . Third, an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) method is conducted on the residue data ( H ), deviating from H +H%, in order to obtain interannual variations of the OHC fields for the three oceans. In the Pacific Ocean, the first two EOF modes account for 51.46% and 13.71% of the variance, representing canonical El Nino/La Nina (EOF-1) and pseudo El Nino/La Nina (i.e., El Nino Modoki) (EOF-2) events. In the Indian Ocean, the first two EOF modes account for 24.27% and 20.94% of the variance, representing basin-scale cooling/warming (EOF-1) and Indian Ocean Dipole (EOF-2) events. In the Atlantic Ocean, the first EOF mode accounts for 49.26% of the variance, representing a basin-scale cooling/warming (EOF-1) event. The second EOF mode accounts for 8.83% of the variance. Different from the Pacific and Indian Oceans, there is no zonal dipole mode in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Fourth, evident lag correlation coefficients are found between the first principal component of the Pacific Ocean and the Southern Oscillation Index with a maximum correlation coefficient (0.68) at 1-month lead of the EOF-1 and between the second principal component of the Indian Ocean and the Dipole Mode Index with maximum 3 values (around 0.53) at 1-2 month advance of the EOF-2. It implies that OHC anomaly contains climate variability signals.