U.S. Army War College

Once sealed off from the rest of the world during the Soviet times, the states of Central Asia today are rapidly integrating with the global economy. The opening up of China in the 1980s, the demise of the Soviet Union a decade later, and the ongoing globalization have all served as grand forces facilitating this highly monumental development. The U. S. regional military involvement after September 11, 2001, and engagement by other actors have further enabled these countries to reconnect with the world, this time as sovereign units. Today, more than 2 decades after they gained their independence, the Central Asian countries, along with the rest of the world, face a great challenge and an opportunity-the rise of China, India, and resurgence of Russia. These neighboring powers are investing and facilitating internal and external links of the region and profoundly shaping the region's external connectivity at the very time as the United States withdraws its troops from Afghanistan...

Burden sharing is back. Indeed many observers of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Alliance would claim that it never went away. This is because, from its inception in 1949, NATO has never been an alliance of equals. The United States has always made the overwhelmingly larger contribution, not only for the defense of Europe under Article 5 of the NATO Treaty, but also in the numerous operations that the Alliance has carried out beyond Europe since the end of the Cold War. At one stage in the late-1950s, the United States had nearly 400,000 troops and 7,000 nuclear weapons deployed in Western Europe. It also maintained large stocks of pre-positioned equipment and sent thousands of more troops back to Europe every year for reinforcement and exercises.

In recent years the distribution of the world's exploitable energy reserves has shifted markedly. One major change is the discovery of substantial gas deposits offshore the Levant. But while these deposits have the potential to revolutionize the economies of the net energy importers, Cyprus, Lebanon, and Israel, they also bring into sharp focus long-running disputes over maritime boundaries and sovereignty. In short, these deposits provide yet another cause for conflict in an already deeply troubled region. This monograph explores both the positive and negative implications of the Eastern Mediterranean's new gas reserves for the region, and the implications of both for U. S. interests. It combines the recognized expertise of two researchers with long experience in regional and energy studies, respectively.

The Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan mark an era of unprecedented outsourcing in contingency operations. Although signiicant outsourcing occurred in prior wars, never has the scale been so large for so long. Counterintuitively, as outsourcing increased, the number of government acquisition personnel decreased. This led to waste, fraud, and abuse. The Commission on Wartime Contracting made several indings and recommendations to prevent future contract administration problems in contingency operations. A principal concern is that the U. S. military needs to increase the number of acquisition experts, change its culture, and treat government contracting as a core competency. In response to outsourcing concerns, the Ofice of Federal Procurement Policy issued Policy Letter 11-01 on the Performance of Inherently Governmental and Critical Functions. The Letter provides strategic-level guidance to federal agencies to assess risk and accountability when outsourcing.

This monograph focuses upon "regional alignment," viewed by many as critical if the Army is to remain both relevant and effective in the 21st century security environment. Despite its title, the monograph is part of the Strategic Studies Institute's ongoing "talent management" series. In fact, the authors argue that world class talent management is a necessary pre-condition to creating an effective regional alignment strategy for the Army. They identify several serious challenges to creating a workable regional alignment of Army units, most of which hinge upon understanding and liberating the unique talents of individual soldiers and civilians. They also argue that the Army's current Force Generation Model is not conducive to creating and maintaining regionally expert units and must be adjusted accordingly.

Much has happened in the 16 years since this author penned a monograph entitled Redefining Land Power for the 21st Century. The United States suffered the tragedies of September 11, 2001, the first attack of a wave of large-scale extremist terrorist activities that have scourged the globe from London to Bali to Madrid to Mumbai to Nairobi and beyond. The invasion and subsequent counterinsurgency campaigns in Iraq and the ebbing war in Afghanistan have significantly engaged U. S. military power, especially Landpower, for over a decade. The ongoing volatility of the international security environment continues to generate crises that may embroil U. S. national interests: an increasingly erratic North Korea that may be on the verge of implosion, confrontation with Iran over its nuclear policies, the turbulence of the Arab Spring and its consequences, growing unrest in broad swaths of Africa, and multiple crises in the Middle East, to name but a few.

The United States plays a significant role in the Middle East. When dealing with the region, often the dilemma is: should there be a strong or weak regional leadership in order to facilitate a transitional phase? However, this decision is contextual, and a state must know what is its own foreign policy. To promote its national interests in the long term, the United States might have to prioritize the local interests and almost altruistically help the regions overcome their internal divisions and problems. In this book, Dr. Anastasia Filippidou reviews the main leadership theories in order to set the foundations for analysis of asymmetric leadership in transitional processes. The report also examines the different leadership types and highlights that, with the exception possibly of toxic leadership, it is difficult, if not impossible, to determine that a specific type is better than another in every situation.

As the United States continues to withdraw troops from and prepares to leave Afghanistan, Afghanistan faces multifaceted and significant challenges of governance, economy, security, and regional dynamics. These are all occurring within the context of the potential for an expanded civil war when international forces leave the country. It is time to refocus from the conflict itself and ask hard, but realistic, strategic and policy questions as to the future of Afghanistan, and what role, if any, the United States should play in shaping that future.

Currently, there is no internationally accepted definition of when hostile actions in cyberspace are recognized as attacks, let alone acts of war. The goal of this monograph is to provide senior policymakers, decisionmakers, military leaders, and their respective staffs with essential background on this topic as well as to introduce an analytical framework for them to utilize according to their needs. The examination canvasses existing decisionmaking policies, structures, and influences to provide a holistic context for the assessment that extends beyond limits of the legal and technical communities. Its approach focuses on the synthesis and integration of material from existing experts, deferring the detailed analysis to the many published studies.

Most of the local societies in which Al-Qaida and its affiliates and offshoots operate in the Middle East and Africa have a predominantly tribal or at least have a strong tribal component (Iraq, Yemen, Libya, Syria, Somalia, Mali, and Sinai). Countering Al-Qaida's continuing presence, therefore, requires addressing the tribal milieu and understanding Al-Qaida's critical vulnerabilities when it operates in tribal societies. In this context, the capability that tribally-based militias provide may be one of the most effective tools against Al-Qaida, and may offer a cost-effective mechanism serving as a force multiplier for U. S. forces. It could reduce the need for U. S. force commitment on the ground in environments that might offer unfavorable conditions for a U. S. Landpower footprint.

Although Arab military forces had somewhat disappeared from the political landscape since the 1970s, the events of the "Arab Spring" in 2011 have brought them back to the forefront of political change, for better or for worse. Not only were all the challenged regimes of military background, i.e., in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Syria, and Yemen, but the armed forces played a decisive role in the fall or maintenance of the regimes in question. The future of these forces is therefore crucial in a continuing time of often turbulent change in the Arab world. Outsiders, such as the United States, are challenged to go beyond classical security sector assistance and instead rethink the security sector in these states in a more holistic and comprehensive manner. As Dr. Florence Gaub shows in this compelling monograph, seven areas are of particular concern when addressing the reform of Arab military forces and their domestic counterparts.

Significant political, economic, and social change can dramatically impact the international security environment and hence U. S. security. For example, the revolutions that have unfolded across the Middle East and North Africa over the last several years have impacted American interests such as the security of Israel and the spread of democracy. Likewise, the less "revolutionary" but equally impactful changes that have unfolded across Latin America over the last 15 years have affected American interests such as free and open trade and access to reliable energy sources. In response to these changes, American leaders will wield diplomacy, development, and defense tools to safeguard U. S. interests and to fulfill broader policy objectives. Whether and how those leaders choose to wield Landpower-a critically important element of the defense toolbox-is subject to significant debate these days in light of sequestration's continuing impact and the post-war drawdown impacting the U. S. Army in particular.

The Army's Office of Economic and Manpower Analysis published a series of monographs that were intended to provide a theoretical and conceptual framework for the development of an Army Officer Corps Strategy. These monographs consider the creation and maintenance of a highly skilled Officer Corps in the context of the nation's continuing commitment to an all-volunteer military, its far flung international interests, and ongoing changes in its domestic labor market. The authors contend that the confluence of these factors demands a comprehensive Officer Corps strategy recognizing the interdependency of accessing, developing, retaining, and employing talent. In their view, building a talent-focused strategy around this four-activity human capital model would best posture the Army to match individual officer competencies to specific competency requirements.

The Middle East is again in the midst of turmoil. While much of the focus is on the sectarian divide and conflict between Sunni and Shia being played out in several countries and among different groups, an equally important division is occurring between secularists and Islamists in a number of Arab countries. This conflict is particularly acute in the countries of the so-called Arab Spring. The removal of the authoritarian leaders in these countries has led to intense competition between Islamists parties and their secular detractors, and the two sides of this divide have very different visions of where they want their societies to be headed. Islamists initially have an advantage politically because of their history of being a repressed opposition movement, their charitable work among the poor, and their appeal to religion, but secularists, while weak in terms of grass-roots organization, often have powerful institutional allies in these societies, such as the military, judiciary, and trade unions.

Today we continue to face an uncertain, complicated and rapidly changing international security environment. At the same time, the Army has been asked to rapidly draw down force levels, in light of domestic fiscal challenges. In the face of continuing international tensions and budget austerity, the Army's greatest challenge is to provide steadfast support to worldwide operational commitments, to include Afghanistan, while simultaneously preparing a smaller force to conduct a wider array of security missions to counter present and future threats. We are committed to ensure the U. S. Army remains the most highly trained and professional land force in the world.

Profound changes in regional geopolitical dynamics in the Arabian Gulf since the early-2000s render the region a highly challenging environment for U. S. foreign policy and military engagement. At a time of continuing domestic instability in Iraq and an increasingly isolated Iran, the geopolitical weight of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states has risen dramatically over the past 10 years; the GCC states' enormous economic power, coupled to some of the most stable political systems in the entire Middle East and North Africa region, call for continuously close U. S.-GCC relations in the security sphere as an important element in U. S. foreign policy.

In November 2012, Russia's Caspian Flotilla celebrated its 290th anniversary. Established by Peter the Great in 1722, the Flotilla was a key component of the Russian Empire's expansion into the Caspian region, and nearly 300 years later, it remains a vital element of continued Russian influence in its "south." The Russian Ministry of Defense (MOD) describes the Caspian Flotilla as "not only the southernmost outpost of Russia, but also the guarantor of the integrity of maritime boundaries and the most important foreign policy tool of the state in the Caspian Sea."1 The Flotilla has recovered from the collapse of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) in 1991 and its subsequent redeployment from Baku to Astrakhan. Unlike other Russian fleets, it has not been reduced in size, but has been the focus of significant investment in recent years.

For the United States and its allies and partners around the world, the debate about the pivot or rebalancing of American interests toward the Asia-Pacific Region is crucial. The United States has to ensure that allies and partners in other areas do not feel neglected or disadvantaged by the possible consequences of this initiative. To a large extent, this will depend not merely on how that initiative is presented, but also on the nature of the relationship between the United States and China. The more tense that relationship, and the more competitive rather than cooperative it is, the greater the likelihood of strategic distraction from other important areas of the world. China under President Xi Jinping is working out what it wishes that relationship to be, since it too recognizes that its nature will, in part, determine the peace and prosperity of the region.

Over the past 2 decades, the global system has been subject to a range of forces which have reconfigured relationships among individuals, organizations, and nation-states. As an aspect of that changing structure and rising interdependence, many security challenges which confront today's strategic leaders are grounded in concerns about economic, social, and environmental sustainability, and, in turn, about political stability. Furthermore, with increasing frequency, many observers are concluding that those types of challenges cannot be addressed by stakeholders from any single sector. That insight has prompted calls for collaborative efforts involving citizen groups; for-profit and not-for-profit companies; local, regional, and national governments; and intergovernmental organizations.