Naval Postgraduate School

Social movement theories have evolved rapidly during the latter half of the twentieth century, and they offer an enhanced understanding of the organizational dynamics in Hezbollah. Armed resistance theories have also evolved, and shed some light on the decision making process of the organization. These theoretical frameworks coalesce to show that Hezbollah's resolute radical agenda was malleable as the situation changed. As the movement grew, it demonstrated the same concerns as all large groups. This book asks two important questions: why did Hezbollah moderate its political stance, and what lessons can we learn from this case study? This book analyses Lebanon's Hezbollah from 1982 to 1992. The analysis centers on the evolution of the organization's political program, and outlines a distinct shift in organizational goals. This thesis argues that Hezbollah shifted from a movement that was determined to establish a radical Islamist centered government to one that works within the Lebanese system. The motives behind the shift in political ideologies are important, because they offer options to those who seek to moderate radical political forces.

This thesis examines the sources of legitimacy for the North Korean regime in an effort to explain what role, if any, economic performance has played in keeping the Kim family in power. This thesis provides a historical look at the development of the North Korean regime from the beginning under Kim Il-sung to the current generation of ruleunder Kim Jong-un. The core argument of the thesis is broken into two major time periods, with the economic downturn of the early 1990s serving as the dividing point. Furthermore, comparisons with South Korea under Park Chung-hee and reformist China under Deng Xiaoping will be made to offer counter-examples of authoritarianregimes that placed a priority on economic growth. The goal of this thesis is to establish the basis for North Korean regime legitimacy as a way to further understand both how the leadership continues to remain in power despite grave economic failure and to shed light on possible future developments as a result of the current situation. In better understanding the sources of legitimacy in North Korea, the international community can be better prepared for the way ahead.

Cross-border ground raids by state-backed security forces can have a detrimental impact on guerrillas' ability to wage war. External support in neighboring countries can be an important source of strength to insurgent forces. However, cross-border raids and their security gains come at a political cost. This thesis examines the conflicts in Malaya (1946 "1950), Nicaragua (1981 "1990), Algeria (1954 "1962), Namibia (1960 "1989), South Vietnam (1960 "1975), and Afghanistan (1978 "1992) to identify operational and strategic-level considerations in planning cross-border operations to reduce the political costs of such operations. The study examines the relationship between security gains and political costs, including subsets of factors intrinsic to both variables. The research presents lessons applicable to the contemporary counterterrorism environment and suggests how military and political counterinsurgents can combine lines of effort in conducting cross-border operations against external insurgent sanctuaries.

This book examines the roles of the U. S. Army in America's nuclear undertakings. Since 1942, when the Army took responsibility for managing the Manhattan Project, the Army has made many important contributions to America's nuclear endeavors. Its earliest nuclear roles included developing and employing America's first nuclear weapons, executing nuclear counter proliferation missions, investigating the effects of nuclear weapons, and supervising the U. S. atomic energy program. Although the Army's nuclear responsibilities were altered during the early years of the Cold War, it continued to participate in America's nuclear efforts. The Army's Cold War nuclear roles included deploying tactical nuclear weapons, participating in nuclear weapons tests, developing doctrine and reorganizing the Army's units in preparation for a nuclear war, managing a nuclear power program, contributing to the debate on national strategy, and helping to reassure U. S. allies and prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons. Today, the Army continues to make important contributions to the nation's nuclear endeavors, notably in preparedness for attackforensics and consequence management. U. S. strategic planners must understand the several nuclear functions that the Army has performed throughout history in order to appreciate more fully the relevance of the Army's current nuclearcapacities.

Controlling the outbreak of epidemic diseases such as influenza has always been a concern for the United States. Traditional surveillance tools such as the ILINet and Virologic provide the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) with influenza surveillance statistics at a lag of 1 to 2 weeks. The CDC requires a tool that can forecastthe level of influenza activity. The rise in the popularity of social media websites such as Flickr, Twitter and Facebook has transformed the web into an interactive sharing platform. The huge amount of generated unstructured data has become an invaluable source for detecting patterns or novelties. This book explores the correlation between Twitter messages (tweets) and CDC ILI and Virologic surveillance data. Using 17 months of tweets, regression models are developed to predict influenza-related statistics. The proposed approach aggregates the weekly frequencies of hand-chosen words that are indicative of an influenza attack using separate predictor variables. The predictions generated by the best models are found to have a Pearson's correlation coefficient of 0.900 (95% CI: 0.732, 0.965) and0.833 (95% CI: 0.574, 0.940) against the CDC ILI surveillance data and CDC Virologic surveillance data, respectively.

In 2011, two defense strategists premiered their argument for a new national strategic narrative. Geared toward national security but intended to guide policy making across government, this narrative has yet to receive official endorsement by the Defense Department or at the executive level. This book will explore if/why a new narrative is necessary, using an interdisciplinary historical and analytic approach. Consulting scholarship from ecology, sociology, economics, chaos theory, cybernetics, and other fields, the author will attempt to elucidate unobvious shifts occurring at multiple levels of the U. S. strategic realm. Shifting paradigms provide a good lens through which to view the narrative fragmentation that has arguably rendered much of U. S. strategy and policy making ineffective over the last two decades. Ultimately, the author will argue that the U. S. government (and population) would reap long-term security and prosperity benefits from a revamped overall national strategic narrative to guide whole-of-government strategy in thecoming decades.

This book conducts a policy analysis exploring how current fire department policies can be modified to optimize employee availability to lead to higher staffing levels and lower sick leave and injury leave usage. Work schedule modification, alternative staffing models, and the reduction of nonproductive time through health and wellnessinitiatives are the three options examined in this book by using data from the Dayton (Ohio) Fire Department. The findings of this research are that schedule modification and the reduction of nonproductive time by initiating wellnessprograms may increase employee availability; alternative work schedules tended to increase injury rates and the potential for political and legal conflict. These findings should be applicable to fire departments across the country, most of whom address the same budget shortfalls and force-strength challenges.

Over the past decade, Russia's reemergence on the international stage has been accompanied by a more aggressive foreign policy agenda. This confrontational Russian behavior lends itself to the conduct of a case study of the international relations theory known as realism. This book analyzes Russian decision making on strategic missile defense and nuclear arms control from a realist perspective. Russia's policies appear to be shaped by realist principles such as zero-sum calculations, the existence of an anarchic international system, and the continuing attempts to alter the balance of power to Moscow's advantage. Moscow holds that U. S.-led ballistic missile defense (BMD) efforts could not only neutralize Russia's nuclear deterrent, but upset strategic stability. Russia's nuclear weapons serve a critical deterrent role and fulfill political purposes, so Moscow is highly resistant to nuclear arms reductions beyond those specified in the 2010 New START Treaty. Russia even seeks to modernize and expand its nuclear arsenal, but itwill be constrained by economic realities. Despite these constraints, Russia's great power ambitions hold potential security risks for NATO countries.

Public safety first responders deal with life and death emergencies, natural disasters, school shootings, trauma created by lone shooters and major events, yet have not enabled members from the private sector, business owners, schooladministrators, and other public safety stakeholders to participate fully in the mitigation or prevention of these events. At no time in this nation's history is the public more attuned to the potential threats in the homeland, andsimultaneously, willing, wanting, and able to be part of the solution. This book outlines proactive case studies that demonstrate the ability to share public-safety sensitive and law enforcement information in a safe, secure, and timely method with those who can help first responders make adifference and keep this country's communities safer.