Naval Postgraduate School

This thesis examines the rationale behind the Brazilian Army's attempt to establsih effective control of the Amazon through theCalha Norte project. The project was initiated in 1985 to satisfy geopolitical needs of Brazil. The thesis argues that the rationalefor Calha Norte has expanded to include not only geopolitical goals, but also a justification for the military's budget and legitimacy. Furthermore, the expanded rationale has resulted in the Brazilian army enlarging its prese,7e in the Amazon. Contrary to most ofthe literature, the thesis argues that the Calha Norte project has a favorable impact in the Amazon. The interests reviewed by thethesis include border conflicts, narco-trafficking and environmental conservation. Finally, the thesis recommends that Brazil expandthe Caiha Norte program, and that the United States support such an expansion.

This thesis examines how globalization has affected Vietnam's view and treatment of religious institutions. In alarger context, it argues that the conditions of globalization foster increased liberalism and the latent development of civilsociety. The implications of globalization on religion in Vietnam are explored through a case study of the Catholic Church inVietnam from 1975 to 2004. The Catholic Church is examined during two different periods: during autarky from 1975 to theDoi Moi reforms in 1986, and during international interdependence from 1987 to 2004. Isolated from international norms and pressures during its period of autarky, Vietnam suppressed, rigidly controlled, and severely restricted the Catholic Church. As Vietnam entered its present period of global integration and interdependency, Vietnam's view and treatment of the Catholic Church improved: suppression lessened, controls eased, and many restrictionslifte

This book analyzes the progress in inter-state security cooperation among Argentina, Brazil, and Chile (ABC) since 1983 as a consequence of these states' political democratization, economic liberalization, and sub-regionalintegration. The causal role of each of these variables has varied over time. Argentina's political democratization in 1983, followed by democratic transitions in Brazil in 1985 and Chile in 1990, ushered in security cooperation, ending a century-long phase of interstate rivalry and conflict management regimes. Economic liberalization adopted by the ABC countries from 1990 led, for the first time in the countries' history, to growing levels of economic, societal and political interdependence. This changed the countries' mutual threat perceptions and created incentives for largely bilateral conflict prevention regimes. This shift, together with the creation of Mercosur's customs union in 1995, opened a more advanced phase featuring sub-regional multilateral collective action in the security realm. Further advances will mostly depend on Mercosur's still unclear consolidation. Integration and security cooperation has been a deliberate state strategy during the 1990s, strengthening the ABCcountries' capacity for domestic and international governance. The book concludes by asserting the need for more integrated theoretical frameworks able to articulate different levels of analysis and variations in causality

Myth and hysteria are probably the two most common attributes of western discourse on Islamic fundamentalism. Current discussions in policy circles often depict this 'green menace' as a threat to the stability of regimes friendly to the United States. A recent incarnation of this argument is the suggestion, following apparentunprecedented electoral gains by Islamic fundamentalists in 1991, that Turkey may be the next Iran or Algeria. This book debunks the 'fundamentalist threat' argument in Turkey by criticallyexamining the evidence used to support such an argument. A careful examination of the election results in- 1991-'shows the Islamic fundamentalists actually suffered a decline in electoral support. The book concludes that the secular democratic nature of the Turkish republic is not seriously threatened by Islamic fundamentalism, and that the evidence used to suggest such a development does not stand up to critical scrutiny.

This book examines the relationship between democracy and membership in the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), a supply-side form of arms control. The book uses the focused comparison approach, investigating Brazil (a member ofthe MTCR) and the People's Republic of China (a non-member). Four independent variables are tested: democratic institutionalization; economic freedoms; norms, values, and beliefs; and elections. These are analyzed in each case and compared to the nation's decision to join the MTCR. The findings are that democracy, due to the effect of the independent variables, influenced and induced Brazil to join the MTCR; in contrast, the lack of democracy in China inhibits that country from joining. Brazil joined because of public desires for economic and material aid. These pressured the leadership to adhere, thus making the regime more effective. Therefore, the efforts to persuade China to join the MTCR might not succeed until it establishes democracy (including all four variables). This finding suggests that theU. S. National Security policy of "engagement and enlargement" is appropriate.

Terrorist activity in Southeast Asia remains a challenge to U. S. national security. In particular, terrorist organizations in the Philippines continue to conduct deadly attacks and attract more recruits despite U. S. and Philippine government counterinsurgency (COIN) efforts. Within the last seven years following the 9/11 terrorist attack, the Philippine and U. S. governments have combined efforts to address insurgency as a threat that hinders peace and security within the Philippines as well as Southeast Asia. Despite the ongoing counterinsurgency operations in Mindanao, the southern region of the Philippines continues to exist as a hub for terrorist recruitment, training, and operations. A key aspect of hindering insurgency growth within the Philippines is deterring terrorist recruitment by first identifying the underlying conditions that promote discontent among the people of Mindanao that make them susceptible to the ideology of militant Islam and then implementing a strategy that includes a full range of activities from kinetic to non-kinetic methods. It is clear that economic conditions, poor governance, lack of adequate social and educational programs are all contributing factors to the instability of Mindanao. What's not so clear is how to disrupt the cycle that sustains the terrorists while gaining the affection of the Muslim minority who have been in opposition with the predominantly Christian government. This thesis examines the counterinsurgency strategy by recognizing effective practices and identifying shortfalls in the approach. Our findings suggest that by applying a mix of soft power, as defined by Professor Joseph Nye, as well as no politik as defined by Professor John Arquilla and Dave Ronfeldt, in relation to hard power practices, an alternative approach to counterinsurgency can offer the U. S. and Philippine governments a long-term sustainable strategy that will diminish future radical Islamic threats and stabilize Mindanao.

In pursuit of the objectives of the U. S. National Security Strategy and the National Military Strategy, the U. S. Armed Forces require access to military and logistics facilities overseas to be able to supportand sustain its combat power projection. Access to these places translates into capabilities. AnAmerican military forward presence in time of peace as well as during a regional crisis lends credibilityto U. S. diplomacy. Moreover, access to forward locations is expedient when engaging transnationalthreats or supporting humanitarian missions, e.g., the South and Southeast Asia tsunami reliefoperations. This thesis analyzes the political opposition to U. S. military presence in Thailand and thePhilippines. The historical context that led to the development of this opposition is examined in detail. The rationale of those who oppose, as well as those who support, American military presence is clearlydelineated. By understanding the sensitive political issues, U. S. military planners and operators can adapt baseaccess strategies according to the existing political climate in these two countries. The politics uniqueto each environment will dictate the combination of "basing" approaches tailored to meet the U. S.military objectives as well as the public diplomacy required to support them