Naval Postgraduate School

This work explores the history of U. S. Army deception and doctrine, and combines the insights gained with the various works on deception, cognitive psychology, communications, and decision-making in order to distill a concise handbook for deception practitioners. A longitudinal review of U. S. Army doctrine reveals a wide variation in the treatment of deception, from emphasized to ignored. This variation can be primarily explained by the U. S. preference for the cumulative destruction style of war and the perceived balance of power between the U. S. and its adversaries. This work strives to fill the current doctrinal gap by distilling the existing body of work to create a theory of deception in the military context. The theory presented provides a cogent structure, taxonomy, and lexicon; as well as, emphasis on how deception functions within the frameworks of communications and decision-making. Next, a synthesis of the practice of deception is presented, with a focus on deception planning and the essential elements ofdeception practice. Examples of U. S. use of deception from the Revolutionary War to Operation DESERT STORM are presented to provide illumination on the utility and use of deception. Finally, the work provides recommendations on how to organize for deception operations.

Since 9/11, the NYPD has taken on what might be called a personal vendetta to never allow another terrorist attack to strike the citizens of New York City. It has developed a unique and controversial model that critics say consistently pushes the boundaries of the law and civil rights in an attempt to spy on and monitor the behavior of the residents of New York City in order to prevent another devastating attack. New York City is not the only place affected by the threat of domestic terrorism. Other municipalities have realized this threat and have attempted to establish methods to prevent the occurrence of a similar scenario in their locales. Many municipalities have attempted to develop their own version of a counterterrorism defense using their own ideas and following those from the NYPD. However, the NYPD model has been criticized for encouraging racial profiling and violating citizens' civil liberties through their collection methods. This thesis will suggest how other municipalities can utilize positive aspects of the NYPD model to deter and foil any future attempts to cause our nation harm.

The education system of Egypt has always reflected the type of society and national identity the political leadership wanted to establish. Every time a change in political leadership has occurred, a corresponding shift also occurred in the education policy and its structure. This thesis attempts to determine if another shift in the education system will occur now that the Muslim Brotherhood has gained power in the Egyptian government. This paper establishes many truths about the way the Muslim Brotherhood will precede now that it has significant control over the Egyptian education system. First, the education system in Egypt is in dire need of reform to increase equality among rich and poor and to improve the overall quality of the system. Second, the Muslim Brotherhood intends to reform the education system primarily to improve the effectiveness of the system and increase access to people of all levels of income. In addition, the Muslim Brotherhood hopes to increase religious instruction, but that is not its primary goal. Third, the Muslim Brotherhood cannot act unilaterally in changing the education system and instead must work with the Egyptian military, other political groups and the United States. The last important aspect established is that education is not the priority of the new government because other issues, such as security and revitalizing the economy, are considered more important. It is, therefore, most likely that the Muslim Brotherhood will proceed with incremental changes to the education system in the near future. Although education will not be a priority, the Muslim Brotherhood will take small steps to improve the quality of the education system. As in Turkey, once the Muslim Brotherhood has solidified its position in the government, it may proceed to increase Islamic instruction. Even if religious instruction is increased, it will be a moderate version of Islam and not inhibit the teaching of secular subjects.

In the years since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, a substantial body of scholarship on the subject of terrorism has emerged without a unitary theory and course. What is today described as terrorism is scarcely a phenomenon unique to the 21st century. The roots of modern terrorism instead reside in the political history of the 19th and 20th centuries. This study asserts that modern terrorism begun in late imperial Russia and was perpetrated by early revolutionary groups including the nihilists, populists, and Socialist Revolutionaries. This study explores the motivations that led young men and women in 19th and early 20th century Russia to resort to organized political violence against the regime of the era. The analysis breaks the roughly fifty year period into three phases based upon the group that was the primary agent of terror and focuses on three categories of influence that shaped the movements: environmental conditions, ideological agitation, and individual motivations. The research revealed that in all three phases of terrorism, the three modes of influence help to illuminate why the groups resorted to violence. Moreover, the study suggests that the same paradigm can be a useful approach to analyzing other terrorist groups throughout history.

A significant challenge to the German Military Forces or "Bundeswehr" today is the development of tactics that will enable soldiers, airmen and sailors to be successful in small-scale peacekeeping operations. This book develops an agent-based simulation for modeling peacekeeping operations at the platoon level. The simulation methodology combines agent-based modeling with discrete event simulation in two software packages called Peacekeeping and TryShoot. These software packages are used to model one part of a map exercise, the Kurzlage PRIZREN. The platoon of peacekeeping soldiers utilizes different kinds of tactics against different kinds of approaches by the civilians to reach their goal. This simulation yields insight into the modeled scenario and demonstrates the usefulness of agent-based simulation for the exploration of tactical concepts in a peacekeeping operation.

In an effort to maintain peace and stability in the East Asia region, and more specifically on the Korean peninsula, the U. S. faces an enormous challenge. The collapse of the Soviet Union, repeated natural disasters, and gross regime mismanagement of economic and social resources have left thousands of North Koreans starving, while at the same time the DPRK spends exorbitant amounts of money on its military. To maintain both its legitimacy and security, the Pyongyang regime purposely and willfully commits many human right violations against its own citizens. Current U. S. foreign policy toward North Korea is centered on the nuclear "Agreed Framework" and the perceived military threat that the DPRK poses to South Korea and the region. To date, human rights issues have not been a viable part of U. S. foreign policy toward North Korea. In response, this thesis proposes foreign and security policies that clearly address the connections between human rights issues and the North Korean military threat.

Since 9/11, the United States implemented radical changes to its counterterrorism strategy and capabilities. Recently, critics have called into question the current strategy for fighting a war on terror. This thesis provides asummary of the two most common competing criticisms of the U. S. counterterrorism strategy. On the one hand, critics argue that the threat has been exaggerated. On the opposite side of the spectrum, critics argue that we are engaged in a war between Islam and the West. An examination of the evidence used by these competing criticisms, combined with a review of existing U. S. strategies, provides a foundation for the construction of an appropriate response to terrorism. This review reveals evidence that the threat should be evaluated differently for domestic and international counterterrorist threats. Internationally, the U. S. engaged in a battle with a radical Islamic insurgency. Domestically, the terrorist threat is made up of terrorist operators who are engaged in a wide variety of criminal activity. Although the U. S. is unprepared for the external threat posed by radical Islamic insurgents, the post-9/11 enhancements tohomeland security are appropriate to meet the current domestic threat

The NATO-Russian relations remain to be one of the major strands of global security in the twenty-first century. Given the more complex threats to global security today, the rising energy demand and dependency of Europe, andincreasing foreign trade between the parties, Russia's relations with the West, as a major fossil-fuel exporter and nuclear country, have become increasingly important. The new security environment of post--September 11 hasprepared a common ground for a closer partnership between old enemies. However, the attempts from both sides have been unable to move beyond a certain level of cooperation. This thesis presents an analysis as to the likelihood of a true NATO-Russia strategic partnership by exploring the perspectives of Russia and NATO, long standing obstacles and differences, and opportunities in the twenty-first century. It seeks to answer the broad question of whether it is possible for Russia and NATO to make a clean sweep of lingering legacies of deep-seated antagonism and distrust, move beyond cultural, religious, and historical differences, and lay the foundations of a healthy lasting partnership.