Strategic Studies Institute

It is a well established axiom that attempting to defeat an insurgency or a terrorist organization headon is merely treating the symptoms of a problem. For long-term success, the campaign must also address the root causes of the insecurity that spawned conflict in the first place. In this monograph, British academic and practitioner Dr. Shima Keene describes a number of ways in which financial intelligence can be leveraged not only to disrupt adversary activities, but also to provide indicators and warnings of future actions and, ultimately, to address underlying insecurities. Dr. Keene was previously both a banker and a British Army reservist. In this monograph, she uses her expertise as a threat finance specialist to outline specific areas where financial intelligence analysis techniques, which are common in the private sector, can be applied to combating insurgency, terrorism, and other hard security threats.

Much has happened in the 16 years since this author penned a monograph entitled Redefining Land Power for the 21st Century. The United States suffered the tragedies of September 11, 2001, the first attack of a wave of large-scale extremist terrorist activities that have scourged the globe from London to Bali to Madrid to Mumbai to Nairobi and beyond. The invasion and subsequent counterinsurgency campaigns in Iraq and the ebbing war in Afghanistan have significantly engaged U. S. military power, especially Landpower, for over a decade. The ongoing volatility of the international security environment continues to generate crises that may embroil U. S. national interests: an increasingly erratic North Korea that may be on the verge of implosion, confrontation with Iran over its nuclear policies, the turbulence of the Arab Spring and its consequences, growing unrest in broad swaths of Africa, and multiple crises in the Middle East, to name but a few.

The United States plays a significant role in the Middle East. When dealing with the region, often the dilemma is: should there be a strong or weak regional leadership in order to facilitate a transitional phase? However, this decision is contextual, and a state must know what is its own foreign policy. To promote its national interests in the long term, the United States might have to prioritize the local interests and almost altruistically help the regions overcome their internal divisions and problems. In this book, Dr. Anastasia Filippidou reviews the main leadership theories in order to set the foundations for analysis of asymmetric leadership in transitional processes. The report also examines the different leadership types and highlights that, with the exception possibly of toxic leadership, it is difficult, if not impossible, to determine that a specific type is better than another in every situation.

As the United States continues to withdraw troops from and prepares to leave Afghanistan, Afghanistan faces multifaceted and significant challenges of governance, economy, security, and regional dynamics. These are all occurring within the context of the potential for an expanded civil war when international forces leave the country. It is time to refocus from the conflict itself and ask hard, but realistic, strategic and policy questions as to the future of Afghanistan, and what role, if any, the United States should play in shaping that future.

Currently, there is no internationally accepted definition of when hostile actions in cyberspace are recognized as attacks, let alone acts of war. The goal of this monograph is to provide senior policymakers, decisionmakers, military leaders, and their respective staffs with essential background on this topic as well as to introduce an analytical framework for them to utilize according to their needs. The examination canvasses existing decisionmaking policies, structures, and influences to provide a holistic context for the assessment that extends beyond limits of the legal and technical communities. Its approach focuses on the synthesis and integration of material from existing experts, deferring the detailed analysis to the many published studies.

Most of the local societies in which Al-Qaida and its affiliates and offshoots operate in the Middle East and Africa have a predominantly tribal or at least have a strong tribal component (Iraq, Yemen, Libya, Syria, Somalia, Mali, and Sinai). Countering Al-Qaida's continuing presence, therefore, requires addressing the tribal milieu and understanding Al-Qaida's critical vulnerabilities when it operates in tribal societies. In this context, the capability that tribally-based militias provide may be one of the most effective tools against Al-Qaida, and may offer a cost-effective mechanism serving as a force multiplier for U. S. forces. It could reduce the need for U. S. force commitment on the ground in environments that might offer unfavorable conditions for a U. S. Landpower footprint.

Although Arab military forces had somewhat disappeared from the political landscape since the 1970s, the events of the "Arab Spring" in 2011 have brought them back to the forefront of political change, for better or for worse. Not only were all the challenged regimes of military background, i.e., in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Syria, and Yemen, but the armed forces played a decisive role in the fall or maintenance of the regimes in question. The future of these forces is therefore crucial in a continuing time of often turbulent change in the Arab world. Outsiders, such as the United States, are challenged to go beyond classical security sector assistance and instead rethink the security sector in these states in a more holistic and comprehensive manner. As Dr. Florence Gaub shows in this compelling monograph, seven areas are of particular concern when addressing the reform of Arab military forces and their domestic counterparts.

Significant political, economic, and social change can dramatically impact the international security environment and hence U. S. security. For example, the revolutions that have unfolded across the Middle East and North Africa over the last several years have impacted American interests such as the security of Israel and the spread of democracy. Likewise, the less "revolutionary" but equally impactful changes that have unfolded across Latin America over the last 15 years have affected American interests such as free and open trade and access to reliable energy sources. In response to these changes, American leaders will wield diplomacy, development, and defense tools to safeguard U. S. interests and to fulfill broader policy objectives. Whether and how those leaders choose to wield Landpower-a critically important element of the defense toolbox-is subject to significant debate these days in light of sequestration's continuing impact and the post-war drawdown impacting the U. S. Army in particular.

The Army's Office of Economic and Manpower Analysis published a series of monographs that were intended to provide a theoretical and conceptual framework for the development of an Army Officer Corps Strategy. These monographs consider the creation and maintenance of a highly skilled Officer Corps in the context of the nation's continuing commitment to an all-volunteer military, its far flung international interests, and ongoing changes in its domestic labor market. The authors contend that the confluence of these factors demands a comprehensive Officer Corps strategy recognizing the interdependency of accessing, developing, retaining, and employing talent. In their view, building a talent-focused strategy around this four-activity human capital model would best posture the Army to match individual officer competencies to specific competency requirements.

The Middle East is again in the midst of turmoil. While much of the focus is on the sectarian divide and conflict between Sunni and Shia being played out in several countries and among different groups, an equally important division is occurring between secularists and Islamists in a number of Arab countries. This conflict is particularly acute in the countries of the so-called Arab Spring. The removal of the authoritarian leaders in these countries has led to intense competition between Islamists parties and their secular detractors, and the two sides of this divide have very different visions of where they want their societies to be headed. Islamists initially have an advantage politically because of their history of being a repressed opposition movement, their charitable work among the poor, and their appeal to religion, but secularists, while weak in terms of grass-roots organization, often have powerful institutional allies in these societies, such as the military, judiciary, and trade unions.

Today we continue to face an uncertain, complicated and rapidly changing international security environment. At the same time, the Army has been asked to rapidly draw down force levels, in light of domestic fiscal challenges. In the face of continuing international tensions and budget austerity, the Army's greatest challenge is to provide steadfast support to worldwide operational commitments, to include Afghanistan, while simultaneously preparing a smaller force to conduct a wider array of security missions to counter present and future threats. We are committed to ensure the U. S. Army remains the most highly trained and professional land force in the world.

Profound changes in regional geopolitical dynamics in the Arabian Gulf since the early-2000s render the region a highly challenging environment for U. S. foreign policy and military engagement. At a time of continuing domestic instability in Iraq and an increasingly isolated Iran, the geopolitical weight of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states has risen dramatically over the past 10 years; the GCC states' enormous economic power, coupled to some of the most stable political systems in the entire Middle East and North Africa region, call for continuously close U. S.-GCC relations in the security sphere as an important element in U. S. foreign policy.

In November 2012, Russia's Caspian Flotilla celebrated its 290th anniversary. Established by Peter the Great in 1722, the Flotilla was a key component of the Russian Empire's expansion into the Caspian region, and nearly 300 years later, it remains a vital element of continued Russian influence in its "south." The Russian Ministry of Defense (MOD) describes the Caspian Flotilla as "not only the southernmost outpost of Russia, but also the guarantor of the integrity of maritime boundaries and the most important foreign policy tool of the state in the Caspian Sea."1 The Flotilla has recovered from the collapse of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) in 1991 and its subsequent redeployment from Baku to Astrakhan. Unlike other Russian fleets, it has not been reduced in size, but has been the focus of significant investment in recent years.

For the United States and its allies and partners around the world, the debate about the pivot or rebalancing of American interests toward the Asia-Pacific Region is crucial. The United States has to ensure that allies and partners in other areas do not feel neglected or disadvantaged by the possible consequences of this initiative. To a large extent, this will depend not merely on how that initiative is presented, but also on the nature of the relationship between the United States and China. The more tense that relationship, and the more competitive rather than cooperative it is, the greater the likelihood of strategic distraction from other important areas of the world. China under President Xi Jinping is working out what it wishes that relationship to be, since it too recognizes that its nature will, in part, determine the peace and prosperity of the region.

Over the past 2 decades, the global system has been subject to a range of forces which have reconfigured relationships among individuals, organizations, and nation-states. As an aspect of that changing structure and rising interdependence, many security challenges which confront today's strategic leaders are grounded in concerns about economic, social, and environmental sustainability, and, in turn, about political stability. Furthermore, with increasing frequency, many observers are concluding that those types of challenges cannot be addressed by stakeholders from any single sector. That insight has prompted calls for collaborative efforts involving citizen groups; for-profit and not-for-profit companies; local, regional, and national governments; and intergovernmental organizations.

Suicide bombers are today's weapon of choice. Terrorists are using suicide bombers because theyare a low cost, low technology, and low risk weapon. Suicide bombers are readily available, require little training, leave no trace behind, and strike fear into the general population. The success of suicide bombers depends upon an element of surprise, as well as accessibility to targeted areas or populations. Both of these required elements have been enjoyed by women suicide bombers. Female suicide bombers were used in the past; however, the recent spate of them in different venues, in different countries, and for different terrorist organizations forces us to study this terrorist method. This book reviews historical female suicide bombers, focuses on female suicide bombercharacteristics, analyzes recent changes in application by various terrorist organizations, and provides implications of change within a strategic assessment of future female suicide bombings.

Key points from this analysis include: - The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)is an enduring association which was originallybrought together by the short-term border securityinterests of its first five members.- Russia believes it plays a leading role in the SCO;in fact, however, the organization is and alwayshas been driven by China, and Moscow's role isvital but secondary. The other member states, former Central Asian Soviet republics with nohistory of modern statehood or governance, arenot equal partners-but their geostrategic locationand, in some cases, natural resources makethem potentially valuable allies for the UnitedStates and other major powers.- The SCO is unlikely to enlarge further. Sinceits inception, the SCO has received several applications for membership. However, any enlargement of the organization could be fraughtwith difficulties, mainly because of conflicts ofinterest between China and Russia and the fearby member states that some new candidates arepotential international liabilities and may createfurther conflict within the organization.

Until the end of the Cold War, terrorism wasa phenomenon practically unknown in the SovietUnion. The chaotic disappearance of theUnion of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR)resulted, among other developments, in twowars in North Caucasus and subsequent wavesof terrorism in the region and terrorist attacksin Moscow. The demise of the USSR also weakenedthe organizations responsible for the securityand law and order of Russia-a phenomenonrarely understood in the West.- Russia and the United States are the prioritytargets for many radical Islamic groups. Thetwo countries should be able, in theory at least, to cooperate closely against many terroristgroups. However, several issues, which eachcountry sees as important, make this cooperationvery difficult and occasionally impossible.- In the post-communist, unipolar world, theUnited States was the dominant power, whichpaid little attention to the views and opinionsof other countries. This attitude was particularlystrongly resented in Russia, accustomedto its status of an equal security and militarypower. The United States failed to appreciatethe changes in the Russian Federation and stilldoes not always accept that repetitive publiccriticism of Russia's democratic deficit can becounterproductive.(NOTE: This monograph was written before the 2014 Winter Games at Sochi, Russia.)

Most of the papers included in this volume, except for the editor's introduction, come from the conference on Visual Propaganda and Online Radicalization hosted in 2012 by Georgia State University in conjunction with the U. S. Army War College. They all speak to the power of visual images, particularly in the online environment, and the sophistication with which a variety of extremist and terrorist groups have adapted to the online environment, particularly through the use of powerful visual images. The strategic point made in these essays, and which serves as a unifying theme throughout the collection, is that weaker forces use these materials to great effect, and to even greater effect when we either underestimate the power of visual images or fail to develop effective counters. The unique value offered by these essays is to lay out clearly the ways in which images work for extremist groups, and to begin the process of developing effective strategies for responding. As the editors make clear, there is an extensive literature available establishing that when compared to text (or words heard over an audio track), images are remembered better, over a longer period of time, and with greater emotional power, having commanded more attention initially. This is true for moving and still images.